Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Schweitzer-Mauduit International, I... (SWM)
$23.41
-1.55 (-6.21%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 982.10 | 1,041.30 | 1,022.80 | 1,074.40 | 1,440 | 1,595.97 | 1,768.83 | 1,960.41 | 2,172.75 | 2,408.08 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 190.50 | 195 | 194.80 | 204.90 | 218.30 | 291.74 | 323.34 | 358.37 | 397.18 | 440.20 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 131 | 133.40 | 137.10 | 132.70 | 125.60 | 193.52 | 214.48 | 237.71 | 263.46 | 291.99 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 59.50 | 61.60 | 57.70 | 72.20 | 92.70 | 98.23 | 108.86 | 120.66 | 133.72 | 148.21 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 106.90 | 93.80 | 103 | 113.70 | 74.70 | 145.98 | 161.79 | 179.31 | 198.73 | 220.26 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 152.80 | 166.80 | 155.70 | 154.70 | 238 | 248.10 | 274.97 | 304.75 | 337.76 | 374.34 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 155.20 | 151.50 | 161.40 | 179.70 | 259.50 | 258.16 | 286.12 | 317.11 | 351.46 | 389.52 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 59.40 | 65.70 | 66.40 | 60.50 | 88.13 | 97.68 | 108.26 | 119.98 | 132.98 | 147.38 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -40.70 | -29.70 | -34.10 | -33.30 | -38.90 | -51.49 | -57.07 | -63.25 | -70.10 | -77.69 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 23.41 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.018 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 31.40 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -21.61 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.63% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.572 |
Total Debt | 1,270.30 |
Total Equity | 735.08 |
Total Capital | 2,005.38 |
Debt Weighting | 63.34 |
Equity Weighting | 36.66 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 982.10 | 1,041.30 | 1,022.80 | 1,074.40 | 1,440 | 1,595.97 | 1,768.83 | 1,960.41 | 2,172.75 | 2,408.08 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 190.50 | 195 | 194.80 | 204.90 | 218.30 | 291.74 | 323.34 | 358.37 | 397.18 | 440.20 |
EBIT | 131 | 133.40 | 137.10 | 132.70 | 125.60 | 193.52 | 214.48 | 237.71 | 263.46 | 291.99 |
Tax Rate | 66.01% | 19.09% | 11.46% | 13.87% | -21.61% | 17.76% | 17.76% | 17.76% | 17.76% | 17.76% |
EBIAT | 44.53 | 107.93 | 121.40 | 114.29 | 152.75 | 159.14 | 176.38 | 195.48 | 216.66 | 240.12 |
Depreciation | 59.50 | 61.60 | 57.70 | 72.20 | 92.70 | 98.23 | 108.86 | 120.66 | 133.72 | 148.21 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -14 | 11.10 | 1 | -83.30 | -10.10 | -26.87 | -29.78 | -33.01 | -36.58 |
Inventories | - | 3.70 | -9.90 | -18.30 | -79.80 | 1.34 | -27.96 | -30.99 | -34.35 | -38.07 |
Accounts Payable | - | 6.30 | 0.70 | -5.90 | 27.63 | 9.55 | 10.58 | 11.73 | 13 | 14.40 |
Capital Expenditure | -40.70 | -29.70 | -34.10 | -33.30 | -38.90 | -51.49 | -57.07 | -63.25 | -70.10 | -77.69 |
UFCF | 63.33 | 135.83 | 146.90 | 129.99 | 71.08 | 206.67 | 183.92 | 203.84 | 225.92 | 250.39 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 196 | 165.43 | 173.89 | 182.78 | 192.13 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 910.25 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 5.44 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 255.40 |
Terminal Value | 7,424.46 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 5,696.89 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 6,607.14 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 1,195.60 |
Equity Value | 5,411.54 |
Shares Outstanding | 31.40 |
Equity Value Per Share | 172.34 |