Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Schweitzer-Mauduit International, I... (SWM)

$23.41

-1.55 (-6.21%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 150.24 | 23.41 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 982.101,041.301,022.801,074.401,4401,595.971,768.831,960.412,172.752,408.08
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 190.50195194.80204.90218.30291.74323.34358.37397.18440.20
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 131133.40137.10132.70125.60193.52214.48237.71263.46291.99
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 59.5061.6057.7072.2092.7098.23108.86120.66133.72148.21
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 106.9093.80103113.7074.70145.98161.79179.31198.73220.26
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 152.80166.80155.70154.70238248.10274.97304.75337.76374.34
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 155.20151.50161.40179.70259.50258.16286.12317.11351.46389.52
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 59.4065.7066.4060.5088.1397.68108.26119.98132.98147.38
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -40.70-29.70-34.10-33.30-38.90-51.49-57.07-63.25-70.10-77.69
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 23.41
Beta 1.018
Diluted Shares Outstanding 31.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -12.86
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.63%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.430
Total Debt 1,270.30
Total Equity 735.08
Total Capital 2,005.38
Debt Weighting 63.34
Equity Weighting 36.66
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 982.101,041.301,022.801,074.401,4401,595.971,768.831,960.412,172.752,408.08
EBITDA 190.50195194.80204.90218.30291.74323.34358.37397.18440.20
EBIT 131133.40137.10132.70125.60193.52214.48237.71263.46291.99
Tax Rate 66.01%19.09%11.46%13.87%-12.86%19.51%19.51%19.51%19.51%19.51%
EBIAT 44.53107.93121.40114.29141.75155.75172.62191.32212.04235.01
Depreciation 59.5061.6057.7072.2092.7098.23108.86120.66133.72148.21
Accounts Receivable --1411.101-83.30-10.10-26.87-29.78-33.01-36.58
Inventories -3.70-9.90-18.30-79.801.34-27.96-30.99-34.35-38.07
Accounts Payable -6.300.70-5.9027.639.5510.5811.731314.40
Capital Expenditure -40.70-29.70-34.10-33.30-38.90-51.49-57.07-63.25-70.10-77.69
UFCF 63.33135.83146.90129.9960.08203.28180.17199.68221.31245.28
WACC
PV UFCF 192.21161.08168.80176.90185.38
SUM PV UFCF 884.36

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.76
Free cash flow (t + 1) 250.19
Terminal Value 6,653.90
Present Value of Terminal Value 5,028.85

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 5,913.21
Net Debt 1,195.60
Equity Value 4,717.61
Shares Outstanding 31.40
Equity Value Per Share 150.24