Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Schweitzer-Mauduit International, I... (SWM)

$23.41

-1.55 (-6.21%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 150.24 | 23.41 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	982.10	1,041.30	1,022.80	1,074.40	1,440	1,595.97	1,768.83	1,960.41	2,172.75	2,408.08
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	190.50	195	194.80	204.90	218.30	291.74	323.34	358.37	397.18	440.20
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	131	133.40	137.10	132.70	125.60	193.52	214.48	237.71	263.46	291.99
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	59.50	61.60	57.70	72.20	92.70	98.23	108.86	120.66	133.72	148.21
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	106.90	93.80	103	113.70	74.70	145.98	161.79	179.31	198.73	220.26
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	152.80	166.80	155.70	154.70	238	248.10	274.97	304.75	337.76	374.34
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	155.20	151.50	161.40	179.70	259.50	258.16	286.12	317.11	351.46	389.52
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	59.40	65.70	66.40	60.50	88.13	97.68	108.26	119.98	132.98	147.38
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-40.70	-29.70	-34.10	-33.30	-38.90	-51.49	-57.07	-63.25	-70.10	-77.69
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 23.41
Beta	1.018
Diluted Shares Outstanding	31.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-12.86
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.63%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.430
Total Debt	1,270.30
Total Equity	735.08
Total Capital	2,005.38
Debt Weighting	63.34
Equity Weighting	36.66
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	982.10	1,041.30	1,022.80	1,074.40	1,440	1,595.97	1,768.83	1,960.41	2,172.75	2,408.08
EBITDA	190.50	195	194.80	204.90	218.30	291.74	323.34	358.37	397.18	440.20
EBIT	131	133.40	137.10	132.70	125.60	193.52	214.48	237.71	263.46	291.99
Tax Rate	66.01%	19.09%	11.46%	13.87%	-12.86%	19.51%	19.51%	19.51%	19.51%	19.51%
EBIAT	44.53	107.93	121.40	114.29	141.75	155.75	172.62	191.32	212.04	235.01
Depreciation	59.50	61.60	57.70	72.20	92.70	98.23	108.86	120.66	133.72	148.21
Accounts Receivable	-	-14	11.10	1	-83.30	-10.10	-26.87	-29.78	-33.01	-36.58
Inventories	-	3.70	-9.90	-18.30	-79.80	1.34	-27.96	-30.99	-34.35	-38.07
Accounts Payable	-	6.30	0.70	-5.90	27.63	9.55	10.58	11.73	13	14.40
Capital Expenditure	-40.70	-29.70	-34.10	-33.30	-38.90	-51.49	-57.07	-63.25	-70.10	-77.69
UFCF	63.33	135.83	146.90	129.99	60.08	203.28	180.17	199.68	221.31	245.28
WACC
PV UFCF						192.21	161.08	168.80	176.90	185.38
SUM PV UFCF										884.36

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.76
Free cash flow (t + 1)	250.19
Terminal Value	6,653.90
Present Value of Terminal Value	5,028.85

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	5,913.21
Net Debt	1,195.60
Equity Value	4,717.61
Shares Outstanding	31.40
Equity Value Per Share	150.24