Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Swvl Holdings Corp. (SWVL)
$1.3
+0.11 (+9.24%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 12.35 | 17.31 | 38.35 | 69.34 | 125.38 | 226.73 | 409.98 | 741.36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||
| EBITDA | -40.31 | -32.31 | -143.85 | -205.28 | -371.20 | -671.24 | -1,213.78 | -2,194.85 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||
| EBIT | -40.57 | -32.80 | -144.59 | -206.85 | -374.04 | -676.37 | -1,223.07 | -2,211.64 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.25 | 0.49 | 0.74 | 1.57 | 2.84 | 5.13 | 9.28 | 16.79 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 15.33 | 10.35 | 19.53 | 54.28 | 98.15 | 177.49 | 320.95 | 580.36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||
| Account Receivables | 1.83 | 2.86 | 7.24 | 11.60 | 20.97 | 37.92 | 68.57 | 123.99 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 1.36 | 1.06 | 5.18 | 7.07 | 12.79 | 23.12 | 41.81 | 75.60 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.39 | -0.21 | -0.32 | -1.21 | -2.18 | -3.94 | -7.13 | -12.89 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 1.3 |
|---|---|
| Beta | -0.456 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 4.74 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 3.28 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.88% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 1.377 |
| Total Debt | 79.65 |
| Total Equity | 6.16 |
| Total Capital | 85.81 |
| Debt Weighting | 92.82 |
| Equity Weighting | 7.18 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 12.35 | 17.31 | 38.35 | 69.34 | 125.38 | 226.73 | 409.98 | 741.36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -40.31 | -32.31 | -143.85 | -205.28 | -371.20 | -671.24 | -1,213.78 | -2,194.85 |
| EBIT | -40.57 | -32.80 | -144.59 | -206.85 | -374.04 | -676.37 | -1,223.07 | -2,211.64 |
| Tax Rate | 13.24% | 9.60% | 3.28% | 8.70% | 8.70% | 8.70% | 8.70% | 8.70% |
| EBIAT | -35.20 | -29.65 | -139.85 | -188.85 | -341.49 | -617.51 | -1,116.62 | -2,019.15 |
| Depreciation | 0.25 | 0.49 | 0.74 | 1.57 | 2.84 | 5.13 | 9.28 | 16.79 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -1.04 | -4.38 | -4.36 | -9.37 | -16.95 | -30.65 | -55.42 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.30 | 4.12 | 1.89 | 5.72 | 10.33 | 18.69 | 33.79 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.39 | -0.21 | -0.32 | -1.21 | -2.18 | -3.94 | -7.13 | -12.89 |
| UFCF | -35.33 | -30.71 | -139.69 | -190.95 | -344.49 | -622.93 | -1,126.42 | -2,036.88 |
| WACC | ||||||||
| PV UFCF | -194.46 | -344.49 | -611.67 | -1,086.09 | -1,928.46 | |||
| SUM PV UFCF | -4,016.02 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 1.84 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -2,077.62 |
| Terminal Value | 1,298,511.79 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,185,370.04 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 1,181,354.02 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 70.12 |
| Equity Value | 1,181,283.90 |
| Shares Outstanding | 4.74 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 249,224.21 |