Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Swvl Holdings Corp. (SWVL)

$1.21

-0.01 (-0.82%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 249,224.21 | 1.21 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 12.3517.3138.3569.34125.38226.73409.98741.36
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -40.31-32.31-143.85-205.28-371.20-671.24-1,213.78-2,194.85
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -40.57-32.80-144.59-206.85-374.04-676.37-1,223.07-2,211.64
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.250.490.741.572.845.139.2816.79
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 15.3310.3519.5354.2898.15177.49320.95580.36
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1.832.867.2411.6020.9737.9268.57123.99
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories --------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1.361.065.187.0712.7923.1241.8175.60
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.39-0.21-0.32-1.21-2.18-3.94-7.13-12.89
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1.21
Beta -0.536
Diluted Shares Outstanding 4.74
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 3.28
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.88%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 1.290
Total Debt 79.65
Total Equity 5.74
Total Capital 85.38
Debt Weighting 93.28
Equity Weighting 6.72
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 12.3517.3138.3569.34125.38226.73409.98741.36
EBITDA -40.31-32.31-143.85-205.28-371.20-671.24-1,213.78-2,194.85
EBIT -40.57-32.80-144.59-206.85-374.04-676.37-1,223.07-2,211.64
Tax Rate 13.24%9.60%3.28%8.70%8.70%8.70%8.70%8.70%
EBIAT -35.20-29.65-139.85-188.85-341.49-617.51-1,116.62-2,019.15
Depreciation 0.250.490.741.572.845.139.2816.79
Accounts Receivable --1.04-4.38-4.36-9.37-16.95-30.65-55.42
Inventories --------
Accounts Payable --0.304.121.895.7210.3318.6933.79
Capital Expenditure -0.39-0.21-0.32-1.21-2.18-3.94-7.13-12.89
UFCF -35.33-30.71-139.69-190.95-344.49-622.93-1,126.42-2,036.88
WACC
PV UFCF -194.46-344.49-611.67-1,086.09-1,928.46
SUM PV UFCF -4,016.02

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 1.84
Free cash flow (t + 1) -2,077.62
Terminal Value 1,298,511.79
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,185,370.04

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,181,354.02
Net Debt 70.12
Equity Value 1,181,283.90
Shares Outstanding 4.74
Equity Value Per Share 249,224.21