Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
SunCoke Energy, Inc. (SXC)
$8.62
+0.10 (+1.17%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,331.50 | 1,450.90 | 1,600.30 | 1,333 | 1,456 | 1,498.91 | 1,543.09 | 1,588.56 | 1,635.38 | 1,683.58 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 229.60 | 233.80 | -2.90 | 204 | 238.10 | 194.36 | 200.09 | 205.98 | 212.05 | 218.30 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 101.40 | 92.20 | -146.70 | 70.30 | 104.20 | 51.66 | 53.19 | 54.75 | 56.37 | 58.03 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 128.20 | 141.60 | 143.80 | 133.70 | 133.90 | 142.70 | 146.90 | 151.23 | 155.69 | 160.28 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 120.20 | 145.70 | 97.10 | 48.40 | 63.80 | 99.38 | 102.31 | 105.32 | 108.43 | 111.62 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 73.30 | 76.10 | 61.70 | 51.80 | 77.60 | 71.41 | 73.52 | 75.68 | 77.91 | 80.21 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 111 | 110.40 | 147 | 126.60 | 127 | 129.96 | 133.79 | 137.73 | 141.79 | 145.97 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 115.50 | 115 | 142.40 | 104.10 | 126 | 125.80 | 129.50 | 133.32 | 137.25 | 141.29 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -75.60 | -100.30 | -110.10 | -73.90 | -98.60 | -95.29 | -98.10 | -100.99 | -103.97 | -107.03 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 8.62 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.222 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 83.70 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 35.32 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.48% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.272 |
| Total Debt | 613.60 |
| Total Equity | 721.49 |
| Total Capital | 1,335.09 |
| Debt Weighting | 45.96 |
| Equity Weighting | 54.04 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,331.50 | 1,450.90 | 1,600.30 | 1,333 | 1,456 | 1,498.91 | 1,543.09 | 1,588.56 | 1,635.38 | 1,683.58 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 229.60 | 233.80 | -2.90 | 204 | 238.10 | 194.36 | 200.09 | 205.98 | 212.05 | 218.30 |
| EBIT | 101.40 | 92.20 | -146.70 | 70.30 | 104.20 | 51.66 | 53.19 | 54.75 | 56.37 | 58.03 |
| Tax Rate | -458.90% | 54.04% | 25.01% | 80.63% | 35.32% | -52.78% | -52.78% | -52.78% | -52.78% | -52.78% |
| EBIAT | 566.73 | 42.38 | -110.01 | 13.62 | 67.40 | 78.93 | 81.26 | 83.65 | 86.12 | 88.66 |
| Depreciation | 128.20 | 141.60 | 143.80 | 133.70 | 133.90 | 142.70 | 146.90 | 151.23 | 155.69 | 160.28 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -2.80 | 14.40 | 9.90 | -25.80 | 6.19 | -2.10 | -2.17 | -2.23 | -2.30 |
| Inventories | - | 0.60 | -36.60 | 20.40 | -0.40 | -2.96 | -3.83 | -3.94 | -4.06 | -4.18 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.50 | 27.40 | -38.30 | 21.90 | -0.20 | 3.71 | 3.82 | 3.93 | 4.04 |
| Capital Expenditure | -75.60 | -100.30 | -110.10 | -73.90 | -98.60 | -95.29 | -98.10 | -100.99 | -103.97 | -107.03 |
| UFCF | 619.33 | 80.98 | -71.11 | 65.42 | 98.40 | 129.36 | 127.83 | 131.60 | 135.48 | 139.47 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 120.82 | 111.51 | 107.21 | 103.09 | 99.12 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 541.75 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.07 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 142.26 |
| Terminal Value | 2,805.94 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,994.07 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 2,535.81 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 549.80 |
| Equity Value | 1,986.01 |
| Shares Outstanding | 83.70 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 23.73 |