Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
SunCoke Energy, Inc. (SXC)
$9.23
+0.17 (+1.88%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,450.90 | 1,600.30 | 1,333 | 1,456 | 1,972.50 | 2,161.34 | 2,368.27 | 2,595 | 2,843.44 | 3,115.66 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 233.80 | -2.90 | 204 | 238.10 | 292 | 269.71 | 295.53 | 323.82 | 354.82 | 388.79 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 92.20 | -146.70 | 70.30 | 104.20 | 149.50 | 74.34 | 81.46 | 89.25 | 97.80 | 107.16 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 141.60 | 143.80 | 133.70 | 133.90 | 142.50 | 195.37 | 214.07 | 234.57 | 257.02 | 281.63 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 145.70 | 97.10 | 48.40 | 63.80 | 90 | 124 | 135.87 | 148.88 | 163.13 | 178.75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 76.10 | 61.70 | 51.80 | 77.60 | 104.80 | 102.14 | 111.92 | 122.64 | 134.38 | 147.24 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 110.40 | 147 | 126.60 | 127 | 175.20 | 189.75 | 207.92 | 227.82 | 249.64 | 273.54 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 115 | 142.40 | 104.10 | 126 | 159.30 | 178.80 | 195.92 | 214.68 | 235.23 | 257.75 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -100.30 | -110.10 | -73.90 | -98.60 | -75.50 | -129.41 | -141.79 | -155.37 | -170.24 | -186.54 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 9.23 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.251 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 84.60 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 17.26 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.01% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.437 |
| Total Debt | 528.90 |
| Total Equity | 780.86 |
| Total Capital | 1,309.76 |
| Debt Weighting | 40.38 |
| Equity Weighting | 59.62 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,450.90 | 1,600.30 | 1,333 | 1,456 | 1,972.50 | 2,161.34 | 2,368.27 | 2,595 | 2,843.44 | 3,115.66 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 233.80 | -2.90 | 204 | 238.10 | 292 | 269.71 | 295.53 | 323.82 | 354.82 | 388.79 |
| EBIT | 92.20 | -146.70 | 70.30 | 104.20 | 149.50 | 74.34 | 81.46 | 89.25 | 97.80 | 107.16 |
| Tax Rate | 54.04% | 25.01% | 80.63% | 35.32% | 17.26% | 42.45% | 42.45% | 42.45% | 42.45% | 42.45% |
| EBIAT | 42.38 | -110.01 | 13.62 | 67.40 | 123.70 | 42.78 | 46.88 | 51.37 | 56.28 | 61.67 |
| Depreciation | 141.60 | 143.80 | 133.70 | 133.90 | 142.50 | 195.37 | 214.07 | 234.57 | 257.02 | 281.63 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 14.40 | 9.90 | -25.80 | -27.20 | 2.66 | -9.78 | -10.72 | -11.74 | -12.86 |
| Inventories | - | -36.60 | 20.40 | -0.40 | -48.20 | -14.55 | -18.17 | -19.91 | -21.81 | -23.90 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 27.40 | -38.30 | 21.90 | 33.30 | 19.50 | 17.12 | 18.76 | 20.55 | 22.52 |
| Capital Expenditure | -100.30 | -110.10 | -73.90 | -98.60 | -75.50 | -129.41 | -141.79 | -155.37 | -170.24 | -186.54 |
| UFCF | 83.68 | -71.11 | 65.42 | 98.40 | 148.60 | 116.35 | 108.33 | 118.70 | 130.06 | 142.51 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 108.08 | 93.48 | 95.15 | 96.85 | 98.58 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 492.14 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.65 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 145.37 |
| Terminal Value | 2,572.84 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,779.68 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 2,271.82 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 438.90 |
| Equity Value | 1,832.92 |
| Shares Outstanding | 84.60 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 21.67 |