Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

TravelCenters of America Inc. (TA)

$86

0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 1,598.85 | 86 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 6,231.446,117.364,846.047,336.8410,844.9912,921.8415,396.4218,344.8921,85826,043.89
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -9.94166.42137.19218.75367.15303.89362.08431.42514.04612.49
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -93.1266.169.40122.24257.4598.75117.66140.19167.04199.03
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 83.18100.26127.7996.51109.70205.14244.42291.23347413.45
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 314.3917.21483.15536416.01683.26814.10970.011,155.771,377.10
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 97.45173.5094.43111.39206.62252.55300.91358.53427.19509
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 196.72196.61172.83191.84272.07389.23463.77552.58658.40784.49
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 120.91147.44158.08206.42253.57329.87393.04468.31558664.86
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -144.78-83.96-54.39-104.85-186.49-205.89-245.32-292.30-348.28-414.97
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 86
Beta 1.454
Diluted Shares Outstanding 14.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.93
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.16%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.021
Total Debt 2,189.17
Total Equity 1,238.14
Total Capital 3,427.32
Debt Weighting 63.87
Equity Weighting 36.13
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 6,231.446,117.364,846.047,336.8410,844.9912,921.8415,396.4218,344.8921,85826,043.89
EBITDA -9.94166.42137.19218.75367.15303.89362.08431.42514.04612.49
EBIT -93.1266.169.40122.24257.4598.75117.66140.19167.04199.03
Tax Rate -2,673.25%11.80%29.30%22.44%23.93%-517.15%-517.15%-517.15%-517.15%-517.15%
EBIAT -2,582.5658.356.6494.81195.84609.44726.15865.221,030.911,228.33
Depreciation 83.18100.26127.7996.51109.70205.14244.42291.23347413.45
Accounts Receivable --76.0579.07-16.96-95.23-45.92-48.36-57.63-68.66-81.81
Inventories -0.1123.78-19.01-80.23-117.15-74.54-88.81-105.82-126.09
Accounts Payable -26.5310.6448.3447.1576.3063.1775.2789.68106.86
Capital Expenditure -144.78-83.95-54.39-104.85-186.49-205.89-245.32-292.30-348.28-414.97
UFCF -2,644.1625.25193.5398.84-9.26521.91665.53792.98944.841,125.77
WACC
PV UFCF 492.37592.32665.80748.40841.24
SUM PV UFCF 3,340.13

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.00
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,148.29
Terminal Value 28,707.26
Present Value of Terminal Value 21,451.74

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 24,791.87
Net Debt 1,773.16
Equity Value 23,018.71
Shares Outstanding 14.40
Equity Value Per Share 1,598.85