Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Talos Energy Inc. (TALO)

$19.33

+0.04 (+0.21%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 119.10 | 19.33 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 410.32891.29908.06575.941,244.541,862.492,787.274,171.246,242.389,341.91
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 194.71638.64500.7583.48402.67823.601,232.541,844.542,760.414,131.03
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 18.07254.93109.83-164.46-133.1121.7932.6148.8073.03109.29
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 176.65383.70390.93247.94535.78801.811,199.941,795.742,687.384,021.74
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 32.19139.9187.0234.2369.85166.44249.09372.77557.86834.85
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 88.97153.66130.86175.14219.47377.63565.13845.731,265.671,894.11
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 0.841.821.861.182.553.815.718.5412.7819.12
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 146.1751.0271.36104.8685.82276.80414.23619.91927.721,388.36
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -----293.33-438.98-656.94-983.14-1,471.29-2,201.84
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 19.33
Beta 2.383
Diluted Shares Outstanding 81.28
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.89
After-tax Cost of Debt 13.45%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.761
Total Debt 980.77
Total Equity 1,571.14
Total Capital 2,551.91
Debt Weighting 38.43
Equity Weighting 61.57
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 410.32891.29908.06575.941,244.541,862.492,787.274,171.246,242.389,341.91
EBITDA 194.71638.64500.7583.48402.67823.601,232.541,844.542,760.414,131.03
EBIT 18.07254.93109.83-164.46-133.1121.7932.6148.8073.03109.29
Tax Rate 0.00%1.30%-160.00%-8.27%0.89%-33.22%-33.22%-33.22%-33.22%-33.22%
EBIAT 18.07251.62285.56-178.07-131.9329.0343.4465.0197.29145.60
Depreciation 176.65383.70390.93247.94535.78801.811,199.941,795.742,687.384,021.74
Accounts Receivable --64.6922.80-44.28-44.33-158.16-187.50-280.60-419.93-628.44
Inventories --0.98-0.030.68-1.37-1.27-1.89-2.83-4.24-6.35
Accounts Payable --95.1520.3433.51-19.05190.98137.44205.68307.81460.64
Capital Expenditure -----293.33-438.98-656.94-983.14-1,471.29-2,201.84
UFCF 194.71474.50719.5959.7845.78423.42534.47799.851,197.011,791.36
WACC
PV UFCF 370.57409.39536.20702.30919.84
SUM PV UFCF 2,938.30

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 14.26
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,827.18
Terminal Value 14,903.61
Present Value of Terminal Value 7,652.80

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 10,591.10
Net Debt 910.92
Equity Value 9,680.18
Shares Outstanding 81.28
Equity Value Per Share 119.10