Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

TravelCenters of America LLC 8% SR ... (TANNZ)

$25.26

0.00 (0.00%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 160.21 | 25.26 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	6,231.44	4,247.07	4,846.04	7,336.84	10,844.99	13,053.92	15,712.78	18,913.19	22,765.47	27,402.40
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	-38.95	133.61	76.23	184.22	367.15	260.82	313.94	377.89	454.86	547.51
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	-122.13	33.35	-51.56	87.71	257.45	34.74	41.82	50.34	60.59	72.93
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	83.18	100.26	127.79	96.51	109.70	226.08	272.13	327.55	394.27	474.58
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	314.39	17.21	0.48	0.54	0.42	142.85	171.94	206.96	249.12	299.86
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	97.45	173.50	0.09	0.11	0.21	147.62	177.69	213.88	257.44	309.88
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	196.72	196.61	0.17	0.19	0.27	203.51	244.96	294.85	354.91	427.20
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	120.91	147.44	0.16	0.21	0.25	141.51	170.34	205.03	246.79	297.06
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-144.78	-83.95	-54.39	-104.85	-186.49	-223.77	-269.35	-324.22	-390.25	-469.74
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 25.26
Beta	0.000
Diluted Shares Outstanding	39.56
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	23.93
After-tax Cost of Debt	1,451.79%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	4.137
Total Debt	2.19
Total Equity	999.18
Total Capital	1,001.37
Debt Weighting	0.22
Equity Weighting	99.78
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	6,231.44	4,247.07	4,846.04	7,336.84	10,844.99	13,053.92	15,712.78	18,913.19	22,765.47	27,402.40
EBITDA	-38.95	133.61	76.23	184.22	367.15	260.82	313.94	377.89	454.86	547.51
EBIT	-122.13	33.35	-51.56	87.71	257.45	34.74	41.82	50.34	60.59	72.93
Tax Rate	-2,673.25%	0.00%	-29.30%	-22.88%	23.93%	-540.30%	-540.30%	-540.30%	-540.30%	-540.30%
EBIAT	-3,386.88	33.35	-66.67	107.78	195.84	222.45	267.76	322.30	387.95	466.97
Depreciation	83.18	100.26	127.79	96.51	109.70	226.08	272.13	327.55	394.27	474.58
Accounts Receivable	-	-76.05	173.40	-0.02	-0.10	-147.41	-30.07	-36.19	-43.56	-52.44
Inventories	-	0.11	196.44	-0.02	-0.08	-203.24	-41.45	-49.89	-60.06	-72.29
Accounts Payable	-	26.53	-147.28	0.05	0.05	141.26	28.82	34.69	41.76	50.27
Capital Expenditure	-144.78	-83.95	-54.39	-104.85	-186.49	-223.77	-269.35	-324.22	-390.25	-469.74
UFCF	-3,448.48	0.24	229.29	99.45	118.92	15.37	227.84	274.25	330.11	397.35
WACC
PV UFCF						14.32	197.90	222	249.03	279.36
SUM PV UFCF										962.61

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.30
Free cash flow (t + 1)	405.29
Terminal Value	7,647.06
Present Value of Terminal Value	5,376.45

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	6,339.07
Net Debt	1.77
Equity Value	6,337.29
Shares Outstanding	39.56
Equity Value Per Share	160.21