Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
The Community Financial Corporation (TCFC)
$40.06
-0.16 (-0.40%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 47.47 | 54.95 | 59.30 | 69.33 | 74.34 | 83.23 | 93.17 | 104.31 | 116.78 | 130.74 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 28.14 | 32.15 | 42.18 | 33.56 | 41.11 | 48.71 | 54.53 | 61.05 | 68.34 | 76.51 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 26.55 | 29.69 | 39.86 | 30.79 | 38.73 | 45.55 | 50.99 | 57.09 | 63.91 | 71.55 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 1.60 | 2.46 | 2.33 | 2.77 | 2.38 | 3.16 | 3.53 | 3.96 | 4.43 | 4.96 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 83.70 | 147.31 | 240.66 | 323.17 | 637.49 | 361.84 | 405.09 | 453.51 | 507.71 | 568.40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 4.51 | 4.96 | 5.02 | 8.72 | 5.59 | 7.84 | 8.77 | 9.82 | 10.99 | 12.31 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.78 | -1.78 | -0.81 | -0.25 | -2.65 | -1.69 | -1.89 | -2.12 | -2.37 | -2.66 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 40.06 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.763 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 5.89 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 25.19 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 6.16% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.350 |
| Total Debt | 50.08 |
| Total Equity | 236.10 |
| Total Capital | 286.18 |
| Debt Weighting | 17.50 |
| Equity Weighting | 82.50 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 47.47 | 54.95 | 59.30 | 69.33 | 74.34 | 83.23 | 93.17 | 104.31 | 116.78 | 130.74 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 28.14 | 32.15 | 42.18 | 33.56 | 41.11 | 48.71 | 54.53 | 61.05 | 68.34 | 76.51 |
| EBIT | 26.55 | 29.69 | 39.86 | 30.79 | 38.73 | 45.55 | 50.99 | 57.09 | 63.91 | 71.55 |
| Tax Rate | 55.95% | 27.10% | 27.06% | 21.78% | 25.19% | 31.42% | 31.42% | 31.42% | 31.42% | 31.42% |
| EBIAT | 11.69 | 21.64 | 29.07 | 24.08 | 28.97 | 31.24 | 34.97 | 39.15 | 43.83 | 49.07 |
| Depreciation | 1.60 | 2.46 | 2.33 | 2.77 | 2.38 | 3.16 | 3.53 | 3.96 | 4.43 | 4.96 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -0.45 | -0.06 | -3.70 | 3.13 | -2.25 | -0.94 | -1.05 | -1.17 | -1.31 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.78 | -1.78 | -0.81 | -0.26 | -2.65 | -1.69 | -1.89 | -2.12 | -2.37 | -2.66 |
| UFCF | 12.51 | 21.88 | 30.53 | 22.90 | 31.84 | 30.46 | 35.68 | 39.94 | 44.72 | 50.06 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 28.43 | 31.08 | 32.48 | 33.94 | 35.46 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 161.38 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.14 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 51.06 |
| Terminal Value | 993.43 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 703.69 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 865.07 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -89.57 |
| Equity Value | 954.64 |
| Shares Outstanding | 5.89 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 161.98 |