Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

The Community Financial Corporation (TCFC)

$39.2

-0.67 (-1.68%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 165.62 | 39.2 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 47.4754.9559.3069.3374.3483.2393.17104.31116.78130.74
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 28.1432.1542.1833.5641.1148.7154.5361.0568.3476.51
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 26.5529.6939.8630.7938.7345.5550.9957.0963.9171.55
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1.602.462.332.772.383.163.533.964.434.96
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 83.70147.31240.66323.17637.49361.84405.09453.51507.71568.40
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 4.514.965.028.725.597.848.779.8210.9912.31
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable ----------
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.78-1.78-0.81-0.25-2.65-1.69-1.89-2.12-2.37-2.66
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 39.2
Beta 0.763
Diluted Shares Outstanding 5.89
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 25.19
After-tax Cost of Debt 6.16%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.201
Total Debt 50.08
Total Equity 231.03
Total Capital 281.11
Debt Weighting 17.82
Equity Weighting 82.18
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 47.4754.9559.3069.3374.3483.2393.17104.31116.78130.74
EBITDA 28.1432.1542.1833.5641.1148.7154.5361.0568.3476.51
EBIT 26.5529.6939.8630.7938.7345.5550.9957.0963.9171.55
Tax Rate 55.95%27.10%27.06%21.78%25.19%31.42%31.42%31.42%31.42%31.42%
EBIAT 11.6921.6429.0724.0828.9731.2434.9739.1543.8349.07
Depreciation 1.602.462.332.772.383.163.533.964.434.96
Accounts Receivable --0.45-0.06-3.703.13-2.25-0.94-1.05-1.17-1.31
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable ----------
Capital Expenditure -0.78-1.78-0.81-0.26-2.65-1.69-1.89-2.12-2.37-2.66
UFCF 12.5121.8830.5322.9031.8430.4635.6839.9444.7250.06
WACC
PV UFCF 28.4631.1532.5934.0935.66
SUM PV UFCF 161.95

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.02
Free cash flow (t + 1) 51.06
Terminal Value 1,017.18
Present Value of Terminal Value 724.56

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 886.50
Net Debt -89.57
Equity Value 976.07
Shares Outstanding 5.89
Equity Value Per Share 165.62