Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

The Community Financial Corporation (TCFC)

$27.09

-0.43 (-1.56%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 117.20 | 27.09 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 54.9559.3069.3374.3479.9287.8296.50106.05116.53128.05
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 32.1522.3121.8335.6551.4842.1546.3250.9055.9361.46
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 29.6919.9919.0533.2749.0738.8842.7246.9551.5956.69
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2.462.332.772.382.413.273.593.954.344.77
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 147.31240.66323.17637.49486.08457.68502.93552.66607.30667.35
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 4.965.028.725.598.338.439.2610.1811.1912.29
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable ----------
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.78-0.81-0.25-2.65-1.53-1.83-2.01-2.21-2.43-2.67
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 27.09
Beta 0.751
Diluted Shares Outstanding 5.89
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 25.29
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.87%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.753
Total Debt 116.77
Total Equity 159.66
Total Capital 276.42
Debt Weighting 42.24
Equity Weighting 57.76
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 54.9559.3069.3374.3479.9287.8296.50106.05116.53128.05
EBITDA 32.1522.3121.8335.6551.4842.1546.3250.9055.9361.46
EBIT 29.6919.9919.0533.2749.0738.8842.7246.9551.5956.69
Tax Rate 27.10%27.06%21.78%25.19%25.29%25.28%25.28%25.28%25.28%25.28%
EBIAT 21.6414.5814.9024.8936.6629.0531.9235.0838.5542.36
Depreciation 2.462.332.772.382.413.273.593.954.344.77
Accounts Receivable --0.06-3.703.13-2.75-0.10-0.83-0.92-1.01-1.11
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable ----------
Capital Expenditure -1.78-0.81-0.26-2.65-1.53-1.83-2.01-2.21-2.43-2.67
UFCF 22.3316.0313.7227.7634.7930.3932.6735.9039.4543.35
WACC
PV UFCF 28.4128.5629.3430.1430.96
SUM PV UFCF 147.41

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.96
Free cash flow (t + 1) 44.22
Terminal Value 891.44
Present Value of Terminal Value 636.77

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 784.18
Net Debt 93.44
Equity Value 690.75
Shares Outstanding 5.89
Equity Value Per Share 117.20