Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Transcontinental Realty Investors, ... (TCI)
$36.71
-0.54 (-1.45%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 120.95 | 47.97 | 57.02 | 40.77 | 36.66 | 29.32 | 23.45 | 18.76 | 15.01 | 12 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 83.95 | 22.58 | 32.87 | 32.97 | 495.24 | 94.18 | 75.33 | 60.25 | 48.19 | 38.55 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 61.19 | 9.20 | 14.29 | 17.94 | 482.12 | 85.27 | 68.20 | 54.55 | 43.63 | 34.90 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 22.76 | 13.38 | 18.58 | 15.03 | 13.11 | 8.91 | 7.13 | 5.70 | 4.56 | 3.65 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 36.36 | 51.18 | 36.76 | 66.74 | 233.21 | 58.71 | 46.96 | 37.56 | 30.04 | 24.03 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 217.18 | 262.53 | 283.33 | 266.44 | 276.45 | 154.31 | 123.43 | 98.73 | 78.97 | 63.16 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | - | 0 | 420.51 | 377.15 | 0 | 121.87 | 97.48 | 77.97 | 62.36 | 49.88 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 26.65 | 26.12 | 26.73 | 43.60 | 58.09 | 22.80 | 18.24 | 14.59 | 11.67 | 9.33 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -78.87 | -37.15 | -17.50 | -8.07 | -18.69 | -14.32 | -11.45 | -9.16 | -7.33 | -5.86 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 36.71 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.535 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 8.64 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 18.16 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.17% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 6.881 |
Total Debt | 313.68 |
Total Equity | 317.15 |
Total Capital | 630.83 |
Debt Weighting | 49.73 |
Equity Weighting | 50.27 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 120.95 | 47.97 | 57.02 | 40.77 | 36.66 | 29.32 | 23.45 | 18.76 | 15.01 | 12 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 83.95 | 22.58 | 32.87 | 32.97 | 495.24 | 94.18 | 75.33 | 60.25 | 48.19 | 38.55 |
EBIT | 61.19 | 9.20 | 14.29 | 17.94 | 482.12 | 85.27 | 68.20 | 54.55 | 43.63 | 34.90 |
Tax Rate | 2.58% | 7.11% | 10.70% | -3.66% | 18.16% | 6.98% | 6.98% | 6.98% | 6.98% | 6.98% |
EBIAT | 59.62 | 8.54 | 12.76 | 18.60 | 394.55 | 79.32 | 63.44 | 50.75 | 40.59 | 32.47 |
Depreciation | 22.76 | 13.38 | 18.58 | 15.03 | 13.11 | 8.91 | 7.13 | 5.70 | 4.56 | 3.65 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -45.34 | -20.81 | 16.89 | -10.01 | 122.13 | 30.88 | 24.70 | 19.76 | 15.80 |
Inventories | - | - | -420.51 | 43.36 | 377.15 | -121.87 | 24.39 | 19.51 | 15.60 | 12.48 |
Accounts Payable | - | -0.53 | 0.61 | 16.87 | 14.49 | -35.30 | -4.56 | -3.65 | -2.92 | -2.33 |
Capital Expenditure | -78.87 | -37.15 | -17.50 | -8.07 | -18.69 | -14.32 | -11.45 | -9.16 | -7.33 | -5.86 |
UFCF | 3.51 | -61.10 | -426.86 | 102.68 | 770.61 | 38.88 | 109.83 | 87.85 | 70.27 | 56.20 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 36.67 | 97.69 | 73.70 | 55.60 | 41.94 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 305.60 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 6.03 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 56.49 |
Terminal Value | 1,021.43 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 762.20 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 1,067.79 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 200.26 |
Equity Value | 867.53 |
Shares Outstanding | 8.64 |
Equity Value Per Share | 100.42 |