Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Transcontinental Realty Investors, ... (TCI)
$30.62
+0.62 (+2.07%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 120.95 | 47.97 | 57.02 | 40.77 | 36.66 | 29.32 | 23.45 | 18.76 | 15.01 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 83.95 | 22.58 | 32.87 | 32.97 | 495.24 | 94.18 | 75.33 | 60.25 | 48.19 | 38.55 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 61.19 | 9.20 | 14.29 | 17.94 | 482.12 | 85.27 | 68.20 | 54.55 | 43.63 | 34.90 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 22.76 | 13.38 | 18.58 | 15.03 | 13.11 | 8.91 | 7.13 | 5.70 | 4.56 | 3.65 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 36.36 | 51.18 | 36.76 | 66.74 | 233.21 | 58.71 | 46.96 | 37.56 | 30.04 | 24.03 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 217.18 | 262.53 | 283.33 | 266.44 | 276.45 | 154.31 | 123.43 | 98.73 | 78.97 | 63.16 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 26.65 | 26.12 | 26.73 | 43.60 | 58.09 | 22.80 | 18.24 | 14.59 | 11.67 | 9.33 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -78.87 | -31.28 | -37.18 | -26.59 | -23.90 | -19.12 | -15.29 | -12.23 | -9.78 | -7.83 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 30.62 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.602 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 8.64 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 18.16 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.17% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.414 |
| Total Debt | 313.68 |
| Total Equity | 264.54 |
| Total Capital | 578.22 |
| Debt Weighting | 54.25 |
| Equity Weighting | 45.75 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 120.95 | 47.97 | 57.02 | 40.77 | 36.66 | 29.32 | 23.45 | 18.76 | 15.01 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 83.95 | 22.58 | 32.87 | 32.97 | 495.24 | 94.18 | 75.33 | 60.25 | 48.19 | 38.55 |
| EBIT | 61.19 | 9.20 | 14.29 | 17.94 | 482.12 | 85.27 | 68.20 | 54.55 | 43.63 | 34.90 |
| Tax Rate | 2.58% | 7.11% | 10.70% | -3.66% | 18.16% | 6.98% | 6.98% | 6.98% | 6.98% | 6.98% |
| EBIAT | 59.62 | 8.54 | 12.76 | 18.60 | 394.55 | 79.32 | 63.44 | 50.75 | 40.59 | 32.47 |
| Depreciation | 22.76 | 13.38 | 18.58 | 15.03 | 13.11 | 8.91 | 7.13 | 5.70 | 4.56 | 3.65 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -45.34 | -20.81 | 16.89 | -10.01 | 122.13 | 30.88 | 24.70 | 19.76 | 15.80 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.53 | 0.61 | 16.87 | 14.49 | -35.30 | -4.56 | -3.65 | -2.92 | -2.33 |
| Capital Expenditure | -78.87 | -31.28 | -37.18 | -26.59 | -23.90 | -19.12 | -15.29 | -12.23 | -9.78 | -7.83 |
| UFCF | 3.51 | -55.23 | -26.03 | 40.80 | 388.25 | 155.95 | 81.60 | 65.27 | 52.20 | 41.76 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 146.84 | 72.35 | 54.49 | 41.04 | 30.91 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 345.63 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.20 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 42.59 |
| Terminal Value | 1,014.09 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 750.68 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 1,096.31 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 200.26 |
| Equity Value | 896.06 |
| Shares Outstanding | 8.64 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 103.72 |