Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Tricon Residential Inc. (TCN)

$8.01

+0.07 (+0.88%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 1,550,940.91 | 8.01 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	30.35	39.90	512.28	492.44	2,481.31	12,502.92	63,000.24	317,448.30	1,599,572.04	8,059,991.93
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	275.93	165.15	331.15	779.55	9,591.39	48,329.50	243,524.73	1,227,082.83	6,183,077.37	31,155,554.33
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	270.39	158.88	320.31	767.42	9,352.17	47,124.14	237,451.12	1,196,478.86	6,028,868.79	30,378,521.54
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	5.54	6.27	10.85	12.13	239.21	1,205.36	6,073.61	30,603.97	154,208.58	777,032.79
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	7.77	8.91	55.16	176.89	587.03	2,957.93	14,904.57	75,101.76	378,425.95	1,906,828.86
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	17.93	8.95	25.59	41.58	589.16	2,968.67	14,958.69	75,374.47	379,800.08	1,913,752.88
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	1.90	17.79	31.18	102.95	482.85	2,433	12,259.52	61,773.77	311,268.31	1,568,432.03
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-12.09	-10.02	-13.03	-32.87	-460.01	-2,317.92	-11,679.66	-58,851.96	-296,545.78	-1,494,247.55
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 8.01
Beta	1.327
Diluted Shares Outstanding	311.10
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	19.12
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.71%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.962
Total Debt	3,917.43
Total Equity	2,491.91
Total Capital	6,409.35
Debt Weighting	61.12
Equity Weighting	38.88
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	30.35	39.90	512.28	492.44	2,481.31	12,502.92	63,000.24	317,448.30	1,599,572.04	8,059,991.93
EBITDA	275.93	165.15	331.15	779.55	9,591.39	48,329.50	243,524.73	1,227,082.83	6,183,077.37	31,155,554.33
EBIT	270.39	158.88	320.31	767.42	9,352.17	47,124.14	237,451.12	1,196,478.86	6,028,868.79	30,378,521.54
Tax Rate	0.02%	13.53%	25.83%	37.12%	19.12%	19.12%	19.12%	19.12%	19.12%	19.12%
EBIAT	270.35	137.39	237.57	482.52	7,563.64	38,111.97	192,040.22	967,660.44	4,875,888.76	24,568,836.52
Depreciation	5.54	6.27	10.85	12.13	239.21	1,205.36	6,073.61	30,603.97	154,208.58	777,032.79
Accounts Receivable	-	8.98	-16.64	-15.99	-547.58	-2,379.52	-11,990.01	-60,415.78	-304,425.62	-1,533,952.80
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Payable	-	15.89	13.39	71.77	379.90	1,950.15	9,826.51	49,514.25	249,494.54	1,257,163.73
Capital Expenditure	-12.09	-10.02	-13.03	-32.88	-460.01	-2,317.92	-11,679.66	-58,851.96	-296,545.78	-1,494,247.55
UFCF	263.80	158.52	232.14	517.56	7,175.16	36,570.04	184,270.67	928,510.92	4,678,620.48	23,574,832.70
WACC
PV UFCF					7,175.16	34,653.69	165,464.31	790,058.41	3,772,368.11	18,012,289.92
SUM PV UFCF										22,774,834.45

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.53
Free cash flow (t + 1)	24,046,329.35
Terminal Value	681,199,131.78
Present Value of Terminal Value	520,468,434.04

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	543,243,268.49
Net Debt	3,740.54
Equity Value	543,239,527.95
Shares Outstanding	311.10
Equity Value Per Share	1,746,186.65