Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM)

$26.355

-0.17 (-0.60%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 15.33 | 26.355 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,284.744,954.405,706.562,930.563,203.683,135.483,068.733,003.402,939.462,876.88
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 894.72703.201,900.8062.40431.68526.68515.47504.50493.76483.25
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 753.41546.081,668.80-188.16205.60362.75355.03347.47340.07332.83
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 141.31157.12232250.56226.08163.93160.44157.03153.68150.41
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 7,419.679,325.286,876.966,866.568,121.926,081.105,951.645,824.945,700.935,579.57
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 894.791,417.762,146.721,423.84743.84996.59975.38954.61934.29914.40
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,193.471,874.241,967.04720.96963.04970.84950.17929.95910.15890.77
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -79.07-113.28-133.44-85.12-91.36-76.67-75.04-73.44-71.88-70.35
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 26.355
Beta 0.703
Diluted Shares Outstanding 600.89
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -16.77
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.05%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.085
Total Debt 8,217.44
Total Equity 15,836.41
Total Capital 24,053.85
Debt Weighting 34.16
Equity Weighting 65.84
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,284.744,954.405,706.562,930.563,203.683,135.483,068.733,003.402,939.462,876.88
EBITDA 894.72703.201,900.8062.40431.68526.68515.47504.50493.76483.25
EBIT 753.41546.081,668.80-188.16205.60362.75355.03347.47340.07332.83
Tax Rate 38.91%42.11%22.85%-165.06%-16.77%-15.59%-15.59%-15.59%-15.59%-15.59%
EBIAT 460.24316.111,287.55-498.74240.08419.31410.39401.65393.10384.73
Depreciation 141.31157.12232250.56226.08163.93160.44157.03153.68150.41
Accounts Receivable --522.97-728.96722.88680-252.7521.2220.7620.3219.89
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -680.7792.80-1,246.08242.087.80-20.67-20.23-19.80-19.38
Capital Expenditure -79.07-113.28-133.44-85.12-91.36-76.67-75.04-73.44-71.88-70.35
UFCF 522.48517.74749.95-856.501,296.88261.62496.34485.77475.43465.31
WACC
PV UFCF 249.05449.76419.03390.39363.71
SUM PV UFCF 1,871.95

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.05
Free cash flow (t + 1) 474.62
Terminal Value 15,561.15
Present Value of Terminal Value 12,163.58

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 14,035.53
Net Debt 4,826.08
Equity Value 9,209.45
Shares Outstanding 600.89
Equity Value Per Share 15.33