Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

The Container Store Group, Inc. (TCS)

$7.34

+0.16 (+2.23%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 9.36 | 7.34 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 857.23895.09915.95990.09305.55264.07228.22197.24170.47147.33
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 69.6485.5481.38132.8471.2533.4328.8924.9721.5818.65
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 31.7249.2442.7498.1136.9618.9516.3714.1512.2310.57
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 37.9236.3038.6434.7334.2914.4912.5210.829.358.08
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 8.407.3667.7617.6914.258.277.146.175.344.61
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 25.5426.5729.4529.0431.9111.9010.298.897.686.64
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 97.36108.65124.21130.62192.7859.8651.7444.7138.6433.40
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 43.6958.7353.6568.5584.0627.4423.7120.4917.7115.31
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -27.65-33.67-33.62-17.18-33.39-12.32-10.64-9.20-7.95-6.87
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 7.34
Beta 1.301
Diluted Shares Outstanding 50.29
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 31.46
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.40%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.909
Total Debt 534.13
Total Equity 369.10
Total Capital 903.23
Debt Weighting 59.14
Equity Weighting 40.86
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 857.23895.09915.95990.09305.55264.07228.22197.24170.47147.33
EBITDA 69.6485.5481.38132.8471.2533.4328.8924.9721.5818.65
EBIT 31.7249.2442.7498.1136.9618.9516.3714.1512.2310.57
Tax Rate -189.75%1.28%31.67%27.91%31.46%-19.49%-19.49%-19.49%-19.49%-19.49%
EBIAT 91.9048.6129.2170.7325.3322.6419.5716.9114.6112.63
Depreciation 37.9236.3038.6434.7334.2914.4912.5210.829.358.08
Accounts Receivable --1.03-2.870.40-2.8720.011.621.401.211.04
Inventories --11.29-15.56-6.41-62.16132.928.137.026.075.25
Accounts Payable -15.04-5.0914.9015.51-56.62-3.72-3.22-2.78-2.40
Capital Expenditure -27.65-33.67-33.62-17.18-33.39-12.32-10.64-9.20-7.95-6.87
UFCF 102.1853.9710.7197.18-23.29121.1227.4623.7320.5117.73
WACC
PV UFCF 116.5925.4521.1717.6114.65
SUM PV UFCF 195.47

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.88
Free cash flow (t + 1) 18.08
Terminal Value 961.71
Present Value of Terminal Value 795.04

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 990.51
Net Debt 519.87
Equity Value 470.64
Shares Outstanding 50.29
Equity Value Per Share 9.36