Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
The Container Store Group, Inc. (TCS)
$7.34
+0.16 (+2.23%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 857.23 | 895.09 | 915.95 | 990.09 | 305.55 | 264.07 | 228.22 | 197.24 | 170.47 | 147.33 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 69.64 | 85.54 | 81.38 | 132.84 | 71.25 | 33.43 | 28.89 | 24.97 | 21.58 | 18.65 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 31.72 | 49.24 | 42.74 | 98.11 | 36.96 | 18.95 | 16.37 | 14.15 | 12.23 | 10.57 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 37.92 | 36.30 | 38.64 | 34.73 | 34.29 | 14.49 | 12.52 | 10.82 | 9.35 | 8.08 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 8.40 | 7.36 | 67.76 | 17.69 | 14.25 | 8.27 | 7.14 | 6.17 | 5.34 | 4.61 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 25.54 | 26.57 | 29.45 | 29.04 | 31.91 | 11.90 | 10.29 | 8.89 | 7.68 | 6.64 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 97.36 | 108.65 | 124.21 | 130.62 | 192.78 | 59.86 | 51.74 | 44.71 | 38.64 | 33.40 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 43.69 | 58.73 | 53.65 | 68.55 | 84.06 | 27.44 | 23.71 | 20.49 | 17.71 | 15.31 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -27.65 | -33.67 | -33.62 | -17.18 | -33.39 | -12.32 | -10.64 | -9.20 | -7.95 | -6.87 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 7.34 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.301 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 50.29 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 31.46 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.40% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.909 |
| Total Debt | 534.13 |
| Total Equity | 369.10 |
| Total Capital | 903.23 |
| Debt Weighting | 59.14 |
| Equity Weighting | 40.86 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 857.23 | 895.09 | 915.95 | 990.09 | 305.55 | 264.07 | 228.22 | 197.24 | 170.47 | 147.33 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 69.64 | 85.54 | 81.38 | 132.84 | 71.25 | 33.43 | 28.89 | 24.97 | 21.58 | 18.65 |
| EBIT | 31.72 | 49.24 | 42.74 | 98.11 | 36.96 | 18.95 | 16.37 | 14.15 | 12.23 | 10.57 |
| Tax Rate | -189.75% | 1.28% | 31.67% | 27.91% | 31.46% | -19.49% | -19.49% | -19.49% | -19.49% | -19.49% |
| EBIAT | 91.90 | 48.61 | 29.21 | 70.73 | 25.33 | 22.64 | 19.57 | 16.91 | 14.61 | 12.63 |
| Depreciation | 37.92 | 36.30 | 38.64 | 34.73 | 34.29 | 14.49 | 12.52 | 10.82 | 9.35 | 8.08 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -1.03 | -2.87 | 0.40 | -2.87 | 20.01 | 1.62 | 1.40 | 1.21 | 1.04 |
| Inventories | - | -11.29 | -15.56 | -6.41 | -62.16 | 132.92 | 8.13 | 7.02 | 6.07 | 5.25 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 15.04 | -5.09 | 14.90 | 15.51 | -56.62 | -3.72 | -3.22 | -2.78 | -2.40 |
| Capital Expenditure | -27.65 | -33.67 | -33.62 | -17.18 | -33.39 | -12.32 | -10.64 | -9.20 | -7.95 | -6.87 |
| UFCF | 102.18 | 53.97 | 10.71 | 97.18 | -23.29 | 121.12 | 27.46 | 23.73 | 20.51 | 17.73 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 116.59 | 25.45 | 21.17 | 17.61 | 14.65 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 195.47 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 3.88 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 18.08 |
| Terminal Value | 961.71 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 795.04 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 990.51 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 519.87 |
| Equity Value | 470.64 |
| Shares Outstanding | 50.29 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 9.36 |