Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD-PFL.TO)

$24.9

-0.08 (-0.32%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 394.69 | 24.9 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 40,72943,28442,26645,76252,92956,614.7360,557.1264,774.0469,284.6074,109.26
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 15,80815,18819,98536,86015,86126,235.2028,062.1030,016.2132,106.4034,342.15
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 14,40313,04717,91935,09413,95023,885.2725,548.5327,327.6129,230.5831,266.06
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,4052,1412,0661,7661,9112,349.932,513.572,688.602,875.833,076.08
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 141,550273,879209,498179,682138,243241,154.49257,947.38275,909.64295,122.71315,673.70
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 20,57533,95145,55940,32554,62748,470.4551,845.7155,45659,317.7063,448.31
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -382,815-589,584-585,033-592,091-598,474-691,918.72-740,100.74-791,637.94-846,763.95-905,728.68
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 23,74635,14337,20632,10543,70143,054.8346,052.9749,259.8952,690.1256,359.22
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -794-1,757-1,129-1,454-1,844-1,737.07-1,858.03-1,987.41-2,125.80-2,273.84
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 24.9
Beta 0.842
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,824.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 17.61
After-tax Cost of Debt 10.16%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.133
Total Debt 411,429
Total Equity 45,427.56
Total Capital 456,856.56
Debt Weighting 90.06
Equity Weighting 9.94
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 40,72943,28442,26645,76252,92956,614.7360,557.1264,774.0469,284.6074,109.26
EBITDA 15,80815,18819,98536,86015,86126,235.2028,062.1030,016.2132,106.4034,342.15
EBIT 14,40313,04717,91935,09413,95023,885.2725,548.5327,327.6129,230.5831,266.06
Tax Rate 11.80%0.16%16.55%14.66%17.61%12.16%12.16%12.16%12.16%12.16%
EBIAT 12,703.4713,026.1914,953.0729,947.7711,493.8820,981.6822,442.7524,005.5625,677.2027,465.24
Depreciation 1,4052,1412,0661,7661,9112,349.932,513.572,688.602,875.833,076.08
Accounts Receivable --13,376-11,6085,234-14,3026,156.55-3,375.26-3,610.30-3,861.70-4,130.61
Inventories -206,769-4,5517,0586,38393,444.7248,182.0251,537.2055,126.0158,964.73
Accounts Payable -11,3972,063-5,10111,596-646.172,998.143,206.923,430.233,669.10
Capital Expenditure -794-1,757-1,129-1,454-1,844-1,737.07-1,858.03-1,987.41-2,125.80-2,273.84
UFCF 13,314.47218,200.191,794.0737,450.7715,237.88120,549.6670,903.2075,840.5781,121.7686,770.70
WACC
PV UFCF 109,630.4658,640.3357,042.3555,487.9253,975.85
SUM PV UFCF 334,776.90

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.96
Free cash flow (t + 1) 88,506.12
Terminal Value 1,111,885.90
Present Value of Terminal Value 691,650.30

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,026,427.20
Net Debt 306,360
Equity Value 720,067.20
Shares Outstanding 1,824.40
Equity Value Per Share 394.69