Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Teck Resources Limited (TECK)

$29.78

-0.79 (-2.58%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -40.95 | 29.78 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 12,04812,56411,9348,94813,48114,320.4315,212.1216,159.3417,165.5418,234.40
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 5,4786,0301,2225626,0734,440.234,716.715,010.415,322.395,653.81
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 4,0114,547-397-9484,4902,545.242,703.732,872.083,050.923,240.89
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,4671,4831,6191,5101,5831,894.992,012.992,138.332,271.482,412.92
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 9521,7341,0264501,4271,315.041,396.921,483.901,576.301,674.45
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,8391,2581,1571,3261,9871,848.191,963.272,085.522,215.382,353.33
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,6372,0651,9811,8722,3902,442.272,594.352,755.892,927.493,109.78
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,1501,2301,3231,4893,2552,039.422,166.412,301.312,444.602,596.82
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,299-2,613-3,468-3,628-4,713-4,137.03-4,394.63-4,668.27-4,958.95-5,267.74
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 29.78
Beta 1.063
Diluted Shares Outstanding 534.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 36.72
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.03%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.904
Total Debt 9,331
Total Equity 15,914.43
Total Capital 25,245.43
Debt Weighting 36.96
Equity Weighting 63.04
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 12,04812,56411,9348,94813,48114,320.4315,212.1216,159.3417,165.5418,234.40
EBITDA 5,4786,0301,2225626,0734,440.234,716.715,010.415,322.395,653.81
EBIT 4,0114,547-397-9484,4902,545.242,703.732,872.083,050.923,240.89
Tax Rate 36.90%31.11%-29.27%23.94%36.72%19.88%19.88%19.88%19.88%19.88%
EBIAT 2,531.093,132.49-513.22-721.012,841.422,039.292,166.272,301.162,444.442,596.65
Depreciation 1,4671,4831,6191,5101,5831,894.992,012.992,138.332,271.482,412.92
Accounts Receivable -581101-169-661138.81-115.08-122.25-129.86-137.95
Inventories --42884109-518-52.27-152.07-161.54-171.60-182.29
Accounts Payable -80931661,766-1,215.58126.99134.90143.30152.22
Capital Expenditure -2,299-2,613-3,468-3,628-4,713-4,137.03-4,394.63-4,668.27-4,958.95-5,267.74
UFCF 1,699.092,235.49-2,084.22-2,733.01298.42-1,331.79-355.54-377.68-401.20-426.18
WACC
PV UFCF -1,268.50-322.55-326.35-330.19-334.08
SUM PV UFCF -2,581.67

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.99
Free cash flow (t + 1) -434.70
Terminal Value -14,538.58
Present Value of Terminal Value -11,396.78

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -13,978.45
Net Debt 7,904
Equity Value -21,882.45
Shares Outstanding 534.40
Equity Value Per Share -40.95