Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL)

$125.78

-1.02 (-0.80%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 12.14 | 125.78 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 13,98813,44812,17214,9234,3593,688.393,120.952,640.812,234.541,890.76
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,9952,5871,3013,209970701.48593.56502.25424.98359.60
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,3281,8975902,440782515.54436.23369.12312.33264.28
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 667690711769188185.94157.34133.13112.6595.32
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 8489279451,2031,088396.43335.44283.84240.17203.22
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,3612,3202,3772,9282,8651,025.41867.66734.17621.23525.65
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,8571,8361,9502,5112,676893.81756.30639.95541.50458.19
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,5481,3571,2761,9111,593597.45505.54427.76361.96306.27
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -935-749-560-690-212-194.32-164.42-139.13-117.72-99.61
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 125.78
Beta 1.310
Diluted Shares Outstanding 325
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -8.59
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.43%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.690
Total Debt 4,206
Total Equity 40,878.50
Total Capital 45,084.50
Debt Weighting 9.33
Equity Weighting 90.67
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 13,98813,44812,17214,9234,3593,688.393,120.952,640.812,234.541,890.76
EBITDA 2,9952,5871,3013,209970701.48593.56502.25424.98359.60
EBIT 2,3281,8975902,440782515.54436.23369.12312.33264.28
Tax Rate -14.51%4.51%145.99%4.92%-8.59%26.46%26.46%26.46%26.46%26.46%
EBIAT 2,665.771,811.53-271.352,319.95849.17379.11320.78271.43229.67194.34
Depreciation 667690711769188185.94157.34133.13112.6595.32
Accounts Receivable -41-57-551631,839.59157.75133.48112.9595.57
Inventories -21-114-561-1651,782.19137.51116.3598.4583.31
Accounts Payable --191-81635-318-995.55-91.92-77.77-65.81-55.68
Capital Expenditure -935-749-560-690-212-194.32-164.42-139.13-117.72-99.61
UFCF 2,397.771,623.53-372.351,921.95405.172,996.96517.04437.50370.19313.24
WACC
PV UFCF 2,753.80436.55339.42263.90205.18
SUM PV UFCF 3,998.84

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.83
Free cash flow (t + 1) 319.51
Terminal Value 4,677.97
Present Value of Terminal Value 3,064.18

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 7,063.02
Net Debt 3,118
Equity Value 3,945.02
Shares Outstanding 325
Equity Value Per Share 12.14