Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ter Beke NV (TERB.BR)

93 €

0.00 (0.00%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 16.25 | 93 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	508.56	680.46	728.13	717.42	696.91	760.46	829.81	905.48	988.06	1,078.17
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	41.15	42.04	35.41	33.91	43.98	45.89	50.07	54.64	59.62	65.06
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	22.32	14.92	4.81	2.46	15.51	14.92	16.28	17.77	19.39	21.15
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	18.83	27.13	30.60	31.45	28.47	30.97	33.79	36.87	40.23	43.90
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	6.51	23.17	26.83	19.14	11.54	19.31	21.07	22.99	25.09	27.38
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	100.40	99.03	103.78	87.51	86.78	111.33	121.48	132.56	144.65	157.84
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	34.79	36.30	40.73	37.87	38.60	43.48	47.44	51.77	56.49	61.64
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	97.31	110.46	117.25	126	132.34	133.88	146.08	159.41	173.94	189.81
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-13.71	-27.43	-18.52	-27.66	-19.28	-24.17	-26.38	-28.78	-31.41	-34.27
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 93
Beta	0.416
Diluted Shares Outstanding	79.87
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	45.57
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.27%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	5.674
Total Debt	85.31
Total Equity	7,427.66
Total Capital	7,512.97
Debt Weighting	1.14
Equity Weighting	98.86
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	508.56	680.46	728.13	717.42	696.91	760.46	829.81	905.48	988.06	1,078.17
EBITDA	41.15	42.04	35.41	33.91	43.98	45.89	50.07	54.64	59.62	65.06
EBIT	22.32	14.92	4.81	2.46	15.51	14.92	16.28	17.77	19.39	21.15
Tax Rate	16.85%	43.99%	-42.83%	-714.33%	45.57%	-130.15%	-130.15%	-130.15%	-130.15%	-130.15%
EBIAT	18.56	8.35	6.86	20.06	8.44	34.34	37.47	40.89	44.62	48.69
Depreciation	18.83	27.13	30.60	31.45	28.47	30.97	33.79	36.87	40.23	43.90
Accounts Receivable	-	1.37	-4.75	16.27	0.73	-24.55	-10.15	-11.08	-12.09	-13.19
Inventories	-	-1.52	-4.43	2.87	-0.73	-4.88	-3.96	-4.33	-4.72	-5.15
Accounts Payable	-	13.15	6.79	8.75	6.34	1.53	12.21	13.32	14.54	15.86
Capital Expenditure	-13.71	-27.43	-18.52	-27.66	-19.28	-24.17	-26.38	-28.78	-31.41	-34.27
UFCF	23.68	21.05	16.56	51.74	23.97	13.24	42.98	46.90	51.17	55.84
WACC
PV UFCF						12.54	38.52	39.80	41.12	42.48
SUM PV UFCF										174.46

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.62
Free cash flow (t + 1)	56.96
Terminal Value	1,573.37
Present Value of Terminal Value	1,197.02

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	1,371.48
Net Debt	73.76
Equity Value	1,297.72
Shares Outstanding	79.87
Equity Value Per Share	16.25