Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Tredegar Corporation (TG)

$4.44

-0.20 (-4.31%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 14.50 | 4.44 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,065.47972.36755.29826.45938.56919.61901.05882.86865.03847.57
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 125.58110.6324.9295.5264.7882.6280.9679.3277.7276.15
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 91.7866.35-7.0471.7338.3850.1649.1548.1647.1946.23
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 33.8044.2831.9623.7826.4032.4631.8131.1630.5329.92
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 34.4031.4211.8530.5219.2325.3324.8224.3123.8223.34
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 131.51111.6689.13105.8785.28105.80103.66101.5799.5297.51
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 93.8181.3866.4488.57127.7792.5190.6588.8287.0285.27
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 112.76103.6689.70123.76114.94110.98108.74106.54104.39102.29
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -40.81-50.86-23.36-27.36-36.87-35.67-34.95-34.24-33.55-32.87
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 4.44
Beta 0.923
Diluted Shares Outstanding 33.83
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 13.17
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.69%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.608
Total Debt 151.77
Total Equity 150.19
Total Capital 301.96
Debt Weighting 50.26
Equity Weighting 49.74
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,065.47972.36755.29826.45938.56919.61901.05882.86865.03847.57
EBITDA 125.58110.6324.9295.5264.7882.6280.9679.3277.7276.15
EBIT 91.7866.35-7.0471.7338.3850.1649.1548.1647.1946.23
Tax Rate 31.69%17.04%32.79%13.98%13.17%21.73%21.73%21.73%21.73%21.73%
EBIAT 62.6955.04-4.7361.7133.3339.2638.4737.6936.9336.19
Depreciation 33.8044.2831.9623.7826.4032.4631.8131.1630.5329.92
Accounts Receivable -19.8522.52-16.7420.59-20.522.142.092.052.01
Inventories -12.4314.94-22.13-39.2035.261.871.831.791.76
Accounts Payable --9.10-13.9534.06-8.82-3.96-2.24-2.20-2.15-2.11
Capital Expenditure -40.81-50.86-23.36-27.36-36.88-35.67-34.95-34.24-33.55-32.87
UFCF 55.6871.6427.3853.32-4.5846.8337.0936.3435.6134.89
WACC
PV UFCF 44.1232.9230.3928.0525.90
SUM PV UFCF 161.39

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.14
Free cash flow (t + 1) 35.06
Terminal Value 621.65
Present Value of Terminal Value 461.48

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 622.87
Net Debt 132.54
Equity Value 490.33
Shares Outstanding 33.83
Equity Value Per Share 14.50