Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
TransGlobe Energy Corporation (TGA)
$3.72
0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 148.46 | 299.14 | 140.10 | 188.77 | 303.96 | 413.45 | 562.38 | 764.96 | 1,040.51 | 1,415.32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -10.65 | 81.02 | 60.94 | -30.69 | 89.22 | 63.26 | 86.05 | 117.05 | 159.21 | 216.56 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | 63.26 | 86.05 | 117.05 | 159.21 | 216.56 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 47.45 | 51.71 | 33.25 | 34.51 | 37.93 | 85.78 | 116.68 | 158.71 | 215.88 | 293.65 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 18.09 | 12.01 | 10.68 | 10 | 12.22 | 27.40 | 37.27 | 50.70 | 68.96 | 93.81 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 11.47 | 8.69 | 17.52 | 5.83 | 19.93 | 27.11 | 36.87 | 50.15 | 68.22 | 92.79 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -37.21 | -40.12 | -36 | -7.06 | -26.73 | -63.43 | -86.27 | -117.35 | -159.62 | -217.12 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 3.72 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.318 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 73.18 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 35.72 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 17.38% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 14.751 |
| Total Debt | 3.84 |
| Total Equity | 272.24 |
| Total Capital | 276.08 |
| Debt Weighting | 1.39 |
| Equity Weighting | 98.61 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 148.46 | 299.14 | 140.10 | 188.77 | 303.96 | 413.45 | 562.38 | 764.96 | 1,040.51 | 1,415.32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -10.65 | 81.02 | 60.94 | -30.69 | 89.22 | 63.26 | 86.05 | 117.05 | 159.21 | 216.56 |
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | 63.26 | 86.05 | 117.05 | 159.21 | 216.56 |
| Tax Rate | -38.33% | 62.69% | 118.07% | -21.18% | 35.72% | 31.39% | 31.39% | 31.39% | 31.39% | 31.39% |
| EBIAT | - | - | - | - | - | 43.40 | 59.04 | 80.30 | 109.23 | 148.58 |
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 6.08 | 1.33 | 0.69 | -2.22 | -15.19 | -9.87 | -13.43 | -18.26 | -24.84 |
| Inventories | - | 2.78 | -8.82 | 11.69 | -14.10 | -7.18 | -9.76 | -13.28 | -18.07 | -24.57 |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure | -37.21 | -40.12 | -36 | -7.06 | -26.73 | -63.43 | -86.27 | -117.35 | -159.62 | -217.12 |
| UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | -42.39 | -46.87 | -63.76 | -86.72 | -117.96 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -36.93 | -35.57 | -42.15 | -49.95 | -59.19 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -223.79 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 14.79 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -120.32 |
| Terminal Value | -940.75 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -472.01 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -695.80 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -34.09 |
| Equity Value | -661.71 |
| Shares Outstanding | 73.18 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -9.04 |