Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Triumph Group, Inc. (TGI)

$11.71

-0.27 (-2.25%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -15.57 | 11.71 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	3,198.95	3,364.93	2,900.12	1,869.72	1,459.94	1,218.79	1,017.48	849.41	709.11	591.98
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	-204.04	-62.67	237.97	-183.30	147.66	0.67	0.56	0.47	0.39	0.33
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	-362.41	-212.57	99.80	-276.63	98.03	-54.32	-45.35	-37.86	-31.61	-26.39
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	158.37	149.90	138.17	93.33	49.64	55	45.91	38.33	32	26.71
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	35.82	92.81	485.46	589.88	240.88	167.38	139.73	116.65	97.38	81.30
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	414.19	700.26	603.90	328.70	280.49	222.73	185.94	155.23	129.59	108.18
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	1,427.17	413.56	452.98	400.37	361.69	289.37	241.57	201.67	168.36	140.55
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	418.37	433.78	457.69	179.47	161.53	152.14	127.01	106.03	88.52	73.90
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-42.05	-47.10	-39.83	-25.18	-19.66	-16.53	-13.80	-11.52	-9.62	-8.03
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 11.71
Beta	2.607
Diluted Shares Outstanding	64.54
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-13.01
After-tax Cost of Debt	8.45%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	15.969
Total Debt	1,608.73
Total Equity	755.74
Total Capital	2,364.47
Debt Weighting	68.04
Equity Weighting	31.96
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	3,198.95	3,364.93	2,900.12	1,869.72	1,459.94	1,218.79	1,017.48	849.41	709.11	591.98
EBITDA	-204.04	-62.67	237.97	-183.30	147.66	0.67	0.56	0.47	0.39	0.33
EBIT	-362.41	-212.57	99.80	-276.63	98.03	-54.32	-45.35	-37.86	-31.61	-26.39
Tax Rate	7.89%	1.66%	-25.97%	-0.64%	-13.01%	-6.01%	-6.01%	-6.01%	-6.01%	-6.01%
EBIAT	-333.80	-209.05	125.72	-278.41	110.78	-57.59	-48.08	-40.14	-33.51	-27.97
Depreciation	158.37	149.90	138.17	93.33	49.64	55	45.91	38.33	32	26.71
Accounts Receivable	-	-286.07	96.35	275.20	48.21	57.76	36.79	30.71	25.64	21.41
Inventories	-	1,013.61	-39.42	52.61	38.67	72.32	47.80	39.90	33.31	27.81
Accounts Payable	-	15.42	23.91	-278.22	-17.94	-9.39	-25.13	-20.98	-17.51	-14.62
Capital Expenditure	-42.05	-47.10	-39.83	-25.18	-19.66	-16.53	-13.80	-11.52	-9.62	-8.03
UFCF	-217.48	636.71	304.90	-160.67	209.70	101.57	43.49	36.31	30.31	25.30
WACC
PV UFCF						91.62	35.39	26.66	20.07	15.12
SUM PV UFCF										188.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	10.85
Free cash flow (t + 1)	25.81
Terminal Value	291.64
Present Value of Terminal Value	174.25

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	363.11
Net Debt	1,367.85
Equity Value	-1,004.74
Shares Outstanding	64.54
Equity Value Per Share	-15.57