Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Triumph Group, Inc. (TGI)

$7.65

+0.18 (+2.41%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -2.56 | 7.65 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 3,364.932,900.121,869.721,459.941,379.131,114.35900.41727.54587.86475
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 203.73375.78227.01190.18196.76130.26105.2585.0568.7255.53
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 53.83237.61133.68140.55161.1985.2668.8955.6744.9836.34
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 149.90138.1793.3349.6435.574536.3629.3823.7419.18
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 92.81485.46589.88240.88227.40187.29151.33122.2898.8079.83
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 719.61603.90328.70280.49299.80224.52181.42146.59118.4495.70
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 413.56452.98400.37361.69389.25228.04184.26148.89120.3097.21
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 433.78457.69179.47161.53197.93141.94114.6992.6774.8860.50
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -47.10-39.83-25.18-19.66-20.68-15.52-12.54-10.14-8.19-6.62
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 7.65
Beta 2.633
Diluted Shares Outstanding 71.72
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 6.36
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.62%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 17.027
Total Debt 1,691.78
Total Equity 548.67
Total Capital 2,240.45
Debt Weighting 75.51
Equity Weighting 24.49
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 3,364.932,900.121,869.721,459.941,379.131,114.35900.41727.54587.86475
EBITDA 203.73375.78227.01190.18196.76130.26105.2585.0568.7255.53
EBIT 53.83237.61133.68140.55161.1985.2668.8955.6744.9836.34
Tax Rate 1.66%-24.53%-0.64%-13.01%6.36%-6.03%-6.03%-6.03%-6.03%-6.03%
EBIAT 52.93295.90134.54158.83150.9390.4173.0559.0347.6938.54
Depreciation 149.90138.1793.3349.6435.574536.3629.3823.7419.18
Accounts Receivable -115.70275.2048.21-19.3175.2843.1134.8328.1422.74
Inventories --39.4252.6138.67-27.55161.2043.7835.3828.5823.10
Accounts Payable -23.91-278.22-17.9436.40-55.99-27.25-22.02-17.79-14.38
Capital Expenditure -47.10-39.83-25.18-19.66-20.68-15.52-12.54-10.14-8.19-6.62
UFCF 155.74494.44252.28257.76155.36300.37156.50126.45102.1882.56
WACC
PV UFCF 273.24129.5095.1969.9751.43
SUM PV UFCF 619.33

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.93
Free cash flow (t + 1) 84.21
Terminal Value 1,061.94
Present Value of Terminal Value 661.48

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,280.81
Net Debt 1,464.38
Equity Value -183.57
Shares Outstanding 71.72
Equity Value Per Share -2.56