Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Triumph Group, Inc. (TGI)
$7.65
+0.18 (+2.41%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,364.93 | 2,900.12 | 1,869.72 | 1,459.94 | 1,379.13 | 1,114.35 | 900.41 | 727.54 | 587.86 | 475 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 203.73 | 375.78 | 227.01 | 190.18 | 196.76 | 130.26 | 105.25 | 85.05 | 68.72 | 55.53 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 53.83 | 237.61 | 133.68 | 140.55 | 161.19 | 85.26 | 68.89 | 55.67 | 44.98 | 36.34 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 149.90 | 138.17 | 93.33 | 49.64 | 35.57 | 45 | 36.36 | 29.38 | 23.74 | 19.18 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Total Cash | 92.81 | 485.46 | 589.88 | 240.88 | 227.40 | 187.29 | 151.33 | 122.28 | 98.80 | 79.83 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 719.61 | 603.90 | 328.70 | 280.49 | 299.80 | 224.52 | 181.42 | 146.59 | 118.44 | 95.70 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 413.56 | 452.98 | 400.37 | 361.69 | 389.25 | 228.04 | 184.26 | 148.89 | 120.30 | 97.21 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 433.78 | 457.69 | 179.47 | 161.53 | 197.93 | 141.94 | 114.69 | 92.67 | 74.88 | 60.50 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -47.10 | -39.83 | -25.18 | -19.66 | -20.68 | -15.52 | -12.54 | -10.14 | -8.19 | -6.62 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 7.65 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.633 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 71.72 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 6.36 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 7.62% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 17.027 |
| Total Debt | 1,691.78 |
| Total Equity | 548.67 |
| Total Capital | 2,240.45 |
| Debt Weighting | 75.51 |
| Equity Weighting | 24.49 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,364.93 | 2,900.12 | 1,869.72 | 1,459.94 | 1,379.13 | 1,114.35 | 900.41 | 727.54 | 587.86 | 475 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 203.73 | 375.78 | 227.01 | 190.18 | 196.76 | 130.26 | 105.25 | 85.05 | 68.72 | 55.53 |
| EBIT | 53.83 | 237.61 | 133.68 | 140.55 | 161.19 | 85.26 | 68.89 | 55.67 | 44.98 | 36.34 |
| Tax Rate | 1.66% | -24.53% | -0.64% | -13.01% | 6.36% | -6.03% | -6.03% | -6.03% | -6.03% | -6.03% |
| EBIAT | 52.93 | 295.90 | 134.54 | 158.83 | 150.93 | 90.41 | 73.05 | 59.03 | 47.69 | 38.54 |
| Depreciation | 149.90 | 138.17 | 93.33 | 49.64 | 35.57 | 45 | 36.36 | 29.38 | 23.74 | 19.18 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 115.70 | 275.20 | 48.21 | -19.31 | 75.28 | 43.11 | 34.83 | 28.14 | 22.74 |
| Inventories | - | -39.42 | 52.61 | 38.67 | -27.55 | 161.20 | 43.78 | 35.38 | 28.58 | 23.10 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 23.91 | -278.22 | -17.94 | 36.40 | -55.99 | -27.25 | -22.02 | -17.79 | -14.38 |
| Capital Expenditure | -47.10 | -39.83 | -25.18 | -19.66 | -20.68 | -15.52 | -12.54 | -10.14 | -8.19 | -6.62 |
| UFCF | 155.74 | 494.44 | 252.28 | 257.76 | 155.36 | 300.37 | 156.50 | 126.45 | 102.18 | 82.56 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 273.24 | 129.50 | 95.19 | 69.97 | 51.43 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 619.33 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.93 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 84.21 |
| Terminal Value | 1,061.94 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 661.48 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 1,280.81 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 1,464.38 |
| Equity Value | -183.57 |
| Shares Outstanding | 71.72 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -2.56 |