Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Triumph Group, Inc. (TGI)

$11.71

-0.27 (-2.25%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -15.57 | 11.71 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,198.953,364.932,900.121,869.721,459.941,218.791,017.48849.41709.11591.98
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -204.04-62.67237.97-183.30147.660.670.560.470.390.33
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -362.41-212.5799.80-276.6398.03-54.32-45.35-37.86-31.61-26.39
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 158.37149.90138.1793.3349.645545.9138.333226.71
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 35.8292.81485.46589.88240.88167.38139.73116.6597.3881.30
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 414.19700.26603.90328.70280.49222.73185.94155.23129.59108.18
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,427.17413.56452.98400.37361.69289.37241.57201.67168.36140.55
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 418.37433.78457.69179.47161.53152.14127.01106.0388.5273.90
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -42.05-47.10-39.83-25.18-19.66-16.53-13.80-11.52-9.62-8.03
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 11.71
Beta 2.607
Diluted Shares Outstanding 64.54
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -13.01
After-tax Cost of Debt 8.45%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.969
Total Debt 1,608.73
Total Equity 755.74
Total Capital 2,364.47
Debt Weighting 68.04
Equity Weighting 31.96
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,198.953,364.932,900.121,869.721,459.941,218.791,017.48849.41709.11591.98
EBITDA -204.04-62.67237.97-183.30147.660.670.560.470.390.33
EBIT -362.41-212.5799.80-276.6398.03-54.32-45.35-37.86-31.61-26.39
Tax Rate 7.89%1.66%-25.97%-0.64%-13.01%-6.01%-6.01%-6.01%-6.01%-6.01%
EBIAT -333.80-209.05125.72-278.41110.78-57.59-48.08-40.14-33.51-27.97
Depreciation 158.37149.90138.1793.3349.645545.9138.333226.71
Accounts Receivable --286.0796.35275.2048.2157.7636.7930.7125.6421.41
Inventories -1,013.61-39.4252.6138.6772.3247.8039.9033.3127.81
Accounts Payable -15.4223.91-278.22-17.94-9.39-25.13-20.98-17.51-14.62
Capital Expenditure -42.05-47.10-39.83-25.18-19.66-16.53-13.80-11.52-9.62-8.03
UFCF -217.48636.71304.90-160.67209.70101.5743.4936.3130.3125.30
WACC
PV UFCF 91.6235.3926.6620.0715.12
SUM PV UFCF 188.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.85
Free cash flow (t + 1) 25.81
Terminal Value 291.64
Present Value of Terminal Value 174.25

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 363.11
Net Debt 1,367.85
Equity Value -1,004.74
Shares Outstanding 64.54
Equity Value Per Share -15.57