Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Triumph Group, Inc. (TGI)
$11.71
-0.27 (-2.25%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 3,198.95 | 3,364.93 | 2,900.12 | 1,869.72 | 1,459.94 | 1,218.79 | 1,017.48 | 849.41 | 709.11 | 591.98 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | -204.04 | -62.67 | 237.97 | -183.30 | 147.66 | 0.67 | 0.56 | 0.47 | 0.39 | 0.33 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | -362.41 | -212.57 | 99.80 | -276.63 | 98.03 | -54.32 | -45.35 | -37.86 | -31.61 | -26.39 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 158.37 | 149.90 | 138.17 | 93.33 | 49.64 | 55 | 45.91 | 38.33 | 32 | 26.71 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 35.82 | 92.81 | 485.46 | 589.88 | 240.88 | 167.38 | 139.73 | 116.65 | 97.38 | 81.30 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 414.19 | 700.26 | 603.90 | 328.70 | 280.49 | 222.73 | 185.94 | 155.23 | 129.59 | 108.18 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 1,427.17 | 413.56 | 452.98 | 400.37 | 361.69 | 289.37 | 241.57 | 201.67 | 168.36 | 140.55 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 418.37 | 433.78 | 457.69 | 179.47 | 161.53 | 152.14 | 127.01 | 106.03 | 88.52 | 73.90 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -42.05 | -47.10 | -39.83 | -25.18 | -19.66 | -16.53 | -13.80 | -11.52 | -9.62 | -8.03 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 11.71 |
---|---|
Beta | 2.607 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 64.54 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -13.01 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 8.45% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 15.969 |
Total Debt | 1,608.73 |
Total Equity | 755.74 |
Total Capital | 2,364.47 |
Debt Weighting | 68.04 |
Equity Weighting | 31.96 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 3,198.95 | 3,364.93 | 2,900.12 | 1,869.72 | 1,459.94 | 1,218.79 | 1,017.48 | 849.41 | 709.11 | 591.98 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | -204.04 | -62.67 | 237.97 | -183.30 | 147.66 | 0.67 | 0.56 | 0.47 | 0.39 | 0.33 |
EBIT | -362.41 | -212.57 | 99.80 | -276.63 | 98.03 | -54.32 | -45.35 | -37.86 | -31.61 | -26.39 |
Tax Rate | 7.89% | 1.66% | -25.97% | -0.64% | -13.01% | -6.01% | -6.01% | -6.01% | -6.01% | -6.01% |
EBIAT | -333.80 | -209.05 | 125.72 | -278.41 | 110.78 | -57.59 | -48.08 | -40.14 | -33.51 | -27.97 |
Depreciation | 158.37 | 149.90 | 138.17 | 93.33 | 49.64 | 55 | 45.91 | 38.33 | 32 | 26.71 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -286.07 | 96.35 | 275.20 | 48.21 | 57.76 | 36.79 | 30.71 | 25.64 | 21.41 |
Inventories | - | 1,013.61 | -39.42 | 52.61 | 38.67 | 72.32 | 47.80 | 39.90 | 33.31 | 27.81 |
Accounts Payable | - | 15.42 | 23.91 | -278.22 | -17.94 | -9.39 | -25.13 | -20.98 | -17.51 | -14.62 |
Capital Expenditure | -42.05 | -47.10 | -39.83 | -25.18 | -19.66 | -16.53 | -13.80 | -11.52 | -9.62 | -8.03 |
UFCF | -217.48 | 636.71 | 304.90 | -160.67 | 209.70 | 101.57 | 43.49 | 36.31 | 30.31 | 25.30 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 91.62 | 35.39 | 26.66 | 20.07 | 15.12 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 188.87 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 10.85 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 25.81 |
Terminal Value | 291.64 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 174.25 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 363.11 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 1,367.85 |
Equity Value | -1,004.74 |
Shares Outstanding | 64.54 |
Equity Value Per Share | -15.57 |