Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. (TKC)

$5.31

-0.05 (-0.93%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 605.26 | 5.31 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 21,292.4725,137.1329,103.7435,920.5453,878.4968,324.9686,644.97109,877.14139,338.56176,699.49
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 9,586.0410,668.7212,443.3615,630.5123,43129,683.2037,642.1847,735.2060,534.4676,765.61
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 5,298.075,622.166,468.588,378.4314,141.6416,267.6820,629.5526,160.9633,175.5242,070.89
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4,287.975,046.565,974.787,252.089,289.3613,415.5217,012.6321,574.2327,358.9534,694.72
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 7,471.1010,589.6912,562.5318,683.9930,906.8331,396.5539,814.9350,490.5364,028.5981,196.61
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 7,081.737,270.826,635.628,132.6313,109.5718,031.8022,866.6828,997.9436,773.1846,633.19
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 180.43178.40203.72260.53277.67477.97606.12768.64974.741,236.10
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2,372.512,728.483,563.924,615.616,898.418,184.7310,379.3013,162.3116,691.5321,167.04
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -5,430.38-6,016.18-7,781.70-9,876.73-14,085.60-17,739.11-22,495.51-28,527.24-36,176.27-45,876.24
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 5.31
Beta 0.777
Diluted Shares Outstanding 873.24
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -46.67
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.78%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.918
Total Debt 53,854.35
Total Equity 4,636.92
Total Capital 58,491.27
Debt Weighting 92.07
Equity Weighting 7.93
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 21,292.4725,137.1329,103.7435,920.5453,878.4968,324.9686,644.97109,877.14139,338.56176,699.49
EBITDA 9,586.0410,668.7212,443.3615,630.5123,43129,683.2037,642.1847,735.2060,534.4676,765.61
EBIT 5,298.075,622.166,468.588,378.4314,141.6416,267.6820,629.5526,160.9633,175.5242,070.89
Tax Rate 24.38%23.88%8.42%-10.79%-46.67%-0.15%-0.15%-0.15%-0.15%-0.15%
EBIAT 4,006.164,279.585,923.729,282.5020,741.4416,292.8020,661.4026,201.3533,226.7342,135.84
Depreciation 4,287.975,046.565,974.787,252.089,289.3613,415.5217,012.6321,574.2327,358.9534,694.72
Accounts Receivable --189.09635.20-1,497.01-4,976.94-4,922.23-4,834.88-6,131.26-7,775.24-9,860.01
Inventories -2.03-25.32-56.82-17.13-200.30-128.16-162.52-206.10-261.36
Accounts Payable -355.97835.431,051.692,282.811,286.322,194.582,783.013,529.224,475.51
Capital Expenditure -5,430.38-6,016.18-7,781.70-9,876.73-14,085.60-17,739.11-22,495.51-28,527.24-36,176.27-45,876.24
UFCF 2,863.763,478.885,562.126,155.7113,233.938,132.9912,410.0615,737.5719,957.3025,308.46
WACC
PV UFCF 7,676.2611,055.3313,232.2815,837.9118,956.62
SUM PV UFCF 66,758.40

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.95
Free cash flow (t + 1) 25,814.63
Terminal Value 653,534.83
Present Value of Terminal Value 489,512.66

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 556,271.06
Net Debt 27,731.08
Equity Value 528,539.98
Shares Outstanding 873.24
Equity Value Per Share 605.26