Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

The Timken Company (TKR)

$80.74

+0.11 (+0.14%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 66.06 | 80.74 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 3,789.903,513.204,132.904,496.704,7695,069.405,388.735,728.176,088.996,472.54
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 707637.40708.90829.80657.10873.79928.83987.341,049.531,115.64
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 546.40470.30541.10665.80488.90668.70710.82755.60803.19853.79
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 160.60167.10167.80164168.20205.09218.01231.74246.34261.85
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 209.50320.30257.10331.60336.69357.90380.44404.41429.88456.96
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 674.30692730.90803.50870.85925.71984.021,0461,111.891,181.93
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 842841.301,042.701,191.301,167.041,240.561,318.701,401.771,490.061,583.92
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 301.70351.40430403.90445.30473.35503.16534.86568.55604.36
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -140.60-121.60-148.30-178.40-187.80-189.24-201.16-213.83-227.30-241.62
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 80.74
Beta 1.554
Diluted Shares Outstanding 72.08
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.09
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.30%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.620
Total Debt 2,028.40
Total Equity 5,819.89
Total Capital 7,848.29
Debt Weighting 25.85
Equity Weighting 74.15
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 3,789.903,513.204,132.904,496.704,7695,069.405,388.735,728.176,088.996,472.54
EBITDA 707637.40708.90829.80657.10873.79928.83987.341,049.531,115.64
EBIT 546.40470.30541.10665.80488.90668.70710.82755.60803.19853.79
Tax Rate 23.35%28.21%22.56%26.05%23.09%24.65%24.65%24.65%24.65%24.65%
EBIAT 418.82337.62419.05492.37376.01503.86535.60569.33605.20643.32
Depreciation 160.60167.10167.80164168.20205.09218.01231.74246.34261.85
Accounts Receivable --17.70-38.90-72.60-67.35-54.86-58.31-61.98-65.89-70.04
Inventories -0.70-201.40-148.6024.26-73.51-78.14-83.07-88.30-93.86
Accounts Payable -49.7078.60-26.1041.4028.0529.8231.6933.6935.81
Capital Expenditure -140.60-121.60-148.30-178.40-187.80-189.24-201.16-213.83-227.30-241.62
UFCF 438.82415.82276.85230.67354.71419.39445.81473.89503.74535.47
WACC
PV UFCF 383.11372.01361.24350.77340.61
SUM PV UFCF 1,807.75

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.47
Free cash flow (t + 1) 546.18
Terminal Value 7,311.66
Present Value of Terminal Value 4,650.94

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 6,458.69
Net Debt 1,696.80
Equity Value 4,761.89
Shares Outstanding 72.08
Equity Value Per Share 66.06