Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT T... (TLK)

$29.54

+0.70 (+2.43%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 659,878.53 | 29.54 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 128,256,000130,788,000.45135,557,000.48136,446,999.97143,209,999.61147,231,904.94151,366,761.35155,617,740.93159,988,104.90164,481,206.04
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 55,324,000.2752,132,999.4262,162,999.9863,836,000.3170,670,999.9466,250,245.0468,110,814.9370,023,637.0271,990,178.7474,011,948.76
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 34,847,000.0130,690,999.9234,958,999.5434,911,000.5744,310,617.4439,149,558.3440,249,033.3641,379,386.0142,541,483.4443,736,217.19
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 20,477,000.2621,441,999.5027,204,000.4428,924,999.7326,360,382.5027,100,686.7027,861,781.5728,644,251.0129,448,695.2930,275,731.57
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 27,000,000.3818,596,000.2918,618,999.3721,817,999.4638,740,000.5027,104,373.3827,865,571.7928,648,147.6729,452,701.3930,279,850.18
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 9,563,999.9011,487,999.4411,901,000.4812,590,000.1611,724,999.3612,495,358.2912,846,277.5513,207,052.0313,577,958.4813,959,281.46
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 631,000.28716,999.44585,000.30982,999.66778,999.39805,692.74828,319.79851,582.30875,498.11900,085.57
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 15,574,000.3914,766,000.5614,324,000.5316,998,999.7917,169,999.6417,210,645.5517,693,988.8118,190,906.2618,701,779.1219,226,999.33
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -33,291,999.90-34,834,000.18-37,309,999.85-31,940,999.66-32,557,000.42-37,178,327.79-38,222,442.83-39,295,880.77-40,399,465.10-41,534,042.47
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 29.54
Beta 0.213
Diluted Shares Outstanding 990.62
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 43.31
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.58%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 4.711
Total Debt 69,078,000
Total Equity 29,262.98
Total Capital 69,107,262.98
Debt Weighting 99.96
Equity Weighting 0.04
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 128,256,000130,788,000.45135,557,000.48136,446,999.97143,209,999.61147,231,904.94151,366,761.35155,617,740.93159,988,104.90164,481,206.04
EBITDA 55,324,000.2752,132,999.4262,162,999.9863,836,000.3170,670,999.9466,250,245.0468,110,814.9370,023,637.0271,990,178.7474,011,948.76
EBIT 34,847,000.0130,690,999.9234,958,999.5434,911,000.5744,310,617.4439,149,558.3440,249,033.3641,379,386.0142,541,483.4443,736,217.19
Tax Rate 48.11%50.66%50.21%46.22%43.31%47.70%47.70%47.70%47.70%47.70%
EBIAT 18,082,378.7215,144,307.4717,405,107.2718,774,015.4825,118,615.5020,474,185.6021,049,182.0121,640,326.6122,248,072.8922,872,887.11
Depreciation 20,477,000.2621,441,999.5027,204,000.4428,924,999.7326,360,382.5027,100,686.7027,861,781.5728,644,251.0129,448,695.2930,275,731.57
Accounts Receivable --1,923,999.54-413,001.04-688,999.69865,000.80-770,358.93-350,919.27-360,774.47-370,906.45-381,322.98
Inventories --85,999.16131,999.13-397,999.36204,000.28-26,693.35-22,627.05-23,262.51-23,915.81-24,587.46
Accounts Payable --807,999.83-442,000.042,674,999.27170,999.8540,645.91483,343.25496,917.45510,872.87525,220.20
Capital Expenditure -33,292,000-34,834,000-37,310,000-31,941,000-32,557,000-37,178,327.79-38,222,442.83-39,295,880.77-40,399,465.10-41,534,042.47
UFCF 5,267,379.08-1,065,691.736,576,105.9217,346,015.7720,161,998.519,640,138.1410,798,317.6911,101,577.3211,413,353.6811,733,885.97
WACC
PV UFCF 9,306,949.3610,064,780.029,989,804.019,915,386.539,841,523.41
SUM PV UFCF 49,118,443.32

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.58
Free cash flow (t + 1) 11,968,563.69
Terminal Value 757,504,030.71
Present Value of Terminal Value 635,338,853.04

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 684,457,296.36
Net Debt 30,767,000
Equity Value 653,690,296.36
Shares Outstanding 990.62
Equity Value Per Share 659,878.53