Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS)

$7.6

+0.19 (+2.56%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 11.85 | 7.6 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 598.48619.30531.33775.69672.28709.14748.03789.05832.31877.95
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 53.9749.4016.01104.4325.5952.8755.7758.8362.0565.46
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 31.4828.45-3.0487.5911.4531.6033.3335.1637.0939.12
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 22.4820.9519.0516.8414.1321.2722.4423.6724.9726.34
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 144.08139.92141.14139.23113.28153.22161.62170.48179.83189.69
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 6.087.498.726.709.248.669.139.6410.1610.72
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 55.8156.9055.7065.6462.1266.2369.8673.6977.7482
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 24.2120.5624.9828.1415.9625.6327.0328.5130.0831.73
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -14.92-14.30-8.47-13.42-15.12-14.72-15.52-16.38-17.27-18.22
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 7.6
Beta 1.648
Diluted Shares Outstanding 30.32
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 27.97
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.11%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.101
Total Debt 242
Total Equity 230.45
Total Capital 472.46
Debt Weighting 51.22
Equity Weighting 48.78
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 598.48619.30531.33775.69672.28709.14748.03789.05832.31877.95
EBITDA 53.9749.4016.01104.4325.5952.8755.7758.8362.0565.46
EBIT 31.4828.45-3.0487.5911.4531.6033.3335.1637.0939.12
Tax Rate 26.19%27.85%53.44%26.15%27.97%32.32%32.32%32.32%32.32%32.32%
EBIAT 23.2420.53-1.4264.698.2521.3922.5623.8025.1026.48
Depreciation 22.4820.9519.0516.8414.1321.2722.4423.6724.9726.34
Accounts Receivable --1.40-1.242.02-2.530.58-0.47-0.50-0.53-0.56
Inventories --1.091.20-9.953.53-4.11-3.63-3.83-4.04-4.26
Accounts Payable --3.654.423.16-12.199.671.411.481.561.65
Capital Expenditure -14.92-14.30-8.47-13.43-15.12-14.72-15.52-16.38-17.27-18.22
UFCF 30.8021.0413.5563.33-3.9334.0826.7728.2429.7931.42
WACC
PV UFCF 31.7023.1722.7322.3121.89
SUM PV UFCF 121.79

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.50
Free cash flow (t + 1) 32.05
Terminal Value 582.72
Present Value of Terminal Value 405.90

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 527.69
Net Debt 168.48
Equity Value 359.21
Shares Outstanding 30.32
Equity Value Per Share 11.85