Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Teekay Tankers Ltd. (TNK)
$39.44
+0.44 (+1.13%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 755.76 | 920.97 | 886.43 | 542.37 | 1,063.11 | 1,263.26 | 1,501.10 | 1,783.71 | 2,119.53 | 2,518.57 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 122.61 | 237.24 | 336.40 | -11.38 | 352.14 | 280.34 | 333.12 | 395.83 | 470.36 | 558.91 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 4.10 | 113.24 | 219.19 | -117.47 | 253.11 | 100.34 | 119.23 | 141.68 | 168.35 | 200.05 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 118.51 | 124 | 117.21 | 106.08 | 99.03 | 180 | 213.89 | 254.16 | 302 | 358.86 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 54.92 | 88.82 | 97.23 | 50.57 | 180.51 | 136.90 | 162.67 | 193.30 | 229.69 | 272.93 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 113.58 | 211.80 | 68.08 | 89.81 | 202.12 | 205.35 | 244.01 | 289.94 | 344.53 | 409.40 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 39.15 | 49.79 | 34.61 | 49.03 | 60.83 | 73.91 | 87.82 | 104.36 | 124 | 147.35 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 52 | 139.29 | 86.11 | 67.41 | 89.82 | 132.89 | 157.91 | 187.64 | 222.97 | 264.95 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -5.83 | -11.63 | -16.02 | -21.45 | -15.43 | -23.36 | -27.76 | -32.99 | -39.20 | -46.58 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 39.44 |
|---|---|
| Beta | -0.076 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 34.29 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.23 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 6.19% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 4.107 |
| Total Debt | 576.20 |
| Total Equity | 1,352.28 |
| Total Capital | 1,928.49 |
| Debt Weighting | 29.88 |
| Equity Weighting | 70.12 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 755.76 | 920.97 | 886.43 | 542.37 | 1,063.11 | 1,263.26 | 1,501.10 | 1,783.71 | 2,119.53 | 2,518.57 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 122.61 | 237.24 | 336.40 | -11.38 | 352.14 | 280.34 | 333.12 | 395.83 | 470.36 | 558.91 |
| EBIT | 4.10 | 113.24 | 219.19 | -117.47 | 253.11 | 100.34 | 119.23 | 141.68 | 168.35 | 200.05 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | 48.60% | 7.70% | 0.79% | 0.23% | 11.46% | 11.46% | 11.46% | 11.46% | 11.46% |
| EBIAT | 4.10 | 58.20 | 202.31 | -116.54 | 252.53 | 88.84 | 105.56 | 125.44 | 149.05 | 177.11 |
| Depreciation | 118.51 | 124 | 117.21 | 106.08 | 99.03 | 180 | 213.89 | 254.16 | 302 | 358.86 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -98.22 | 143.72 | -21.73 | -112.31 | -3.23 | -38.66 | -45.94 | -54.59 | -64.87 |
| Inventories | - | -10.64 | 15.18 | -14.42 | -11.80 | -13.08 | -13.91 | -16.53 | -19.65 | -23.35 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 87.29 | -53.18 | -18.70 | 22.40 | 43.07 | 25.02 | 29.73 | 35.33 | 41.98 |
| Capital Expenditure | -5.83 | -11.63 | -16.02 | -21.45 | -15.43 | -23.36 | -27.76 | -32.99 | -39.20 | -46.58 |
| UFCF | 116.78 | 149.01 | 409.23 | -86.75 | 234.42 | 272.24 | 264.13 | 313.86 | 372.95 | 443.16 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 259.94 | 240.81 | 273.23 | 310 | 351.73 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,435.71 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.73 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 452.03 |
| Terminal Value | 16,557.81 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 13,141.57 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 14,577.29 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 395.69 |
| Equity Value | 14,181.60 |
| Shares Outstanding | 34.29 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 413.61 |