Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Toast, Inc. (TOST)
$17.75
+0.73 (+4.29%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 665.03 | 823.13 | 1,705 | 2,731 | 4,470.51 | 7,318.01 | 11,979.22 | 19,609.40 | 32,099.63 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | |||||||||
| EBITDA | -205.85 | -208.22 | -457 | -242 | -1,027.27 | -1,681.59 | -2,752.69 | -4,506.01 | -7,376.12 |
| EBITDA (%) | |||||||||
| EBIT | -212.70 | -235.29 | -478 | -266 | -1,099.11 | -1,799.19 | -2,945.18 | -4,821.12 | -7,891.93 |
| EBIT (%) | |||||||||
| Depreciation | 6.84 | 27.07 | 21 | 24 | 71.84 | 117.59 | 192.49 | 315.10 | 515.81 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 150.37 | 581.82 | 1,266 | 1,021 | 2,290.38 | 3,749.24 | 6,137.32 | 10,046.49 | 16,445.62 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | |||||||||
| Account Receivables | 44.63 | 33.80 | 55 | 77 | 188.45 | 308.49 | 504.98 | 826.62 | 1,353.14 |
| Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||
| Inventories | 15.39 | 19.33 | 42 | 110 | 124.65 | 204.05 | 334.01 | 546.76 | 895.03 |
| Inventories (%) | |||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 31.52 | 30.55 | 40 | 30 | 132.96 | 217.64 | 356.27 | 583.20 | 954.67 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -14.73 | -36.07 | -19 | -33 | -99.70 | -163.20 | -267.14 | -437.30 | -715.84 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 17.75 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.000 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 512.24 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.72 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 11.62% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 3.494 |
| Total Debt | 94 |
| Total Equity | 9,092.32 |
| Total Capital | 9,186.32 |
| Debt Weighting | 1.02 |
| Equity Weighting | 98.98 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 665.03 | 823.13 | 1,705 | 2,731 | 4,470.51 | 7,318.01 | 11,979.22 | 19,609.40 | 32,099.63 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -205.85 | -208.22 | -457 | -242 | -1,027.27 | -1,681.59 | -2,752.69 | -4,506.01 | -7,376.12 |
| EBIT | -212.70 | -235.29 | -478 | -266 | -1,099.11 | -1,799.19 | -2,945.18 | -4,821.12 | -7,891.93 |
| Tax Rate | 1.53% | -0.11% | 0.61% | 0.72% | 0.69% | 0.69% | 0.69% | 0.69% | 0.69% |
| EBIAT | -209.45 | -235.54 | -475.07 | -264.08 | -1,091.54 | -1,786.79 | -2,924.89 | -4,787.90 | -7,837.55 |
| Depreciation | 6.84 | 27.07 | 21 | 24 | 71.84 | 117.59 | 192.49 | 315.10 | 515.81 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 10.83 | -21.20 | -22 | -111.45 | -120.03 | -196.49 | -321.64 | -526.52 |
| Inventories | - | -3.94 | -22.67 | -68 | -14.65 | -79.40 | -129.97 | -212.75 | -348.26 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.97 | 9.45 | -10 | 102.96 | 84.69 | 138.63 | 226.93 | 371.47 |
| Capital Expenditure | -14.73 | -36.07 | -19 | -33 | -99.70 | -163.20 | -267.14 | -437.30 | -715.84 |
| UFCF | -217.34 | -238.63 | -507.50 | -373.08 | -1,142.54 | -1,947.14 | -3,187.37 | -5,217.56 | -8,540.89 |
| WACC | |||||||||
| PV UFCF | -1,142.54 | -1,879.84 | -2,970.85 | -4,695.05 | -7,419.93 | ||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -17,482.33 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 3.58 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -8,711.71 |
| Terminal Value | -551,374.10 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -462,452.18 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -479,934.51 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -453 |
| Equity Value | -479,481.51 |
| Shares Outstanding | 512.24 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -936.04 |