Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Tuniu Corporation (TOUR)
$2.49
+0.10 (+4.18%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 350.74 | 358.42 | 364.96 | 72.04 | 68.22 | 54.31 | 43.23 | 34.42 | 27.40 | 21.81 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -86.66 | 5.18 | -54.66 | -169.43 | -8.02 | -30.97 | -24.66 | -19.63 | -15.63 | -12.44 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -121.18 | -30.04 | -106.27 | -205.17 | -18.22 | -41.66 | -33.17 | -26.40 | -21.02 | -16.73 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 34.53 | 35.23 | 51.61 | 35.74 | 10.21 | 10.69 | 8.51 | 6.77 | 5.39 | 4.29 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 576.01 | 227.13 | 256.14 | 250.75 | 154.40 | 94.73 | 75.42 | 60.04 | 47.80 | 38.05 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 93.14 | 293.69 | 200.66 | 65.41 | 59.24 | 37.05 | 29.50 | 23.48 | 18.69 | 14.88 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 136.40 | 208.90 | 209.91 | 112.93 | 61.38 | 43.60 | 34.71 | 27.63 | 22 | 17.51 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -25.68 | -19.11 | -19.60 | -4.53 | -2.36 | -3.02 | -2.40 | -1.91 | -1.52 | -1.21 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 2.49 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.527 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 123.62 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 5.84 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.42% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.606 |
| Total Debt | 46.65 |
| Total Equity | 307.83 |
| Total Capital | 354.47 |
| Debt Weighting | 13.16 |
| Equity Weighting | 86.84 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 350.74 | 358.42 | 364.96 | 72.04 | 68.22 | 54.31 | 43.23 | 34.42 | 27.40 | 21.81 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -86.66 | 5.18 | -54.66 | -169.43 | -8.02 | -30.97 | -24.66 | -19.63 | -15.63 | -12.44 |
| EBIT | -121.18 | -30.04 | -106.27 | -205.17 | -18.22 | -41.66 | -33.17 | -26.40 | -21.02 | -16.73 |
| Tax Rate | -2.29% | 5.66% | 4.31% | 3.19% | 5.84% | 3.34% | 3.34% | 3.34% | 3.34% | 3.34% |
| EBIAT | -123.97 | -28.34 | -101.70 | -198.63 | -17.16 | -40.27 | -32.06 | -25.52 | -20.32 | -16.18 |
| Depreciation | 34.53 | 35.23 | 51.61 | 35.74 | 10.21 | 10.69 | 8.51 | 6.77 | 5.39 | 4.29 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -200.55 | 93.04 | 135.25 | 6.17 | 22.19 | 7.55 | 6.01 | 4.79 | 3.81 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 72.50 | 1.02 | -96.98 | -51.55 | -17.78 | -8.89 | -7.08 | -5.63 | -4.49 |
| Capital Expenditure | -25.68 | -19.11 | -19.60 | -4.53 | -2.36 | -3.02 | -2.40 | -1.91 | -1.52 | -1.21 |
| UFCF | -115.12 | -140.28 | 24.37 | -129.15 | -54.70 | -28.18 | -27.29 | -21.72 | -17.29 | -13.77 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -25.73 | -22.75 | -16.53 | -12.02 | -8.73 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -85.76 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.53 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -14.04 |
| Terminal Value | -186.50 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -118.31 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -204.07 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -9.21 |
| Equity Value | -194.86 |
| Shares Outstanding | 123.62 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -1.58 |