Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Tuniu Corporation (TOUR)

$2.49

+0.10 (+4.18%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -1.58 | 2.49 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 350.74358.42364.9672.0468.2254.3143.2334.4227.4021.81
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -86.665.18-54.66-169.43-8.02-30.97-24.66-19.63-15.63-12.44
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -121.18-30.04-106.27-205.17-18.22-41.66-33.17-26.40-21.02-16.73
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 34.5335.2351.6135.7410.2110.698.516.775.394.29
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 576.01227.13256.14250.75154.4094.7375.4260.0447.8038.05
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 93.14293.69200.6665.4159.2437.0529.5023.4818.6914.88
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 136.40208.90209.91112.9361.3843.6034.7127.632217.51
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -25.68-19.11-19.60-4.53-2.36-3.02-2.40-1.91-1.52-1.21
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.49
Beta 1.527
Diluted Shares Outstanding 123.62
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 5.84
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.42%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.606
Total Debt 46.65
Total Equity 307.83
Total Capital 354.47
Debt Weighting 13.16
Equity Weighting 86.84
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 350.74358.42364.9672.0468.2254.3143.2334.4227.4021.81
EBITDA -86.665.18-54.66-169.43-8.02-30.97-24.66-19.63-15.63-12.44
EBIT -121.18-30.04-106.27-205.17-18.22-41.66-33.17-26.40-21.02-16.73
Tax Rate -2.29%5.66%4.31%3.19%5.84%3.34%3.34%3.34%3.34%3.34%
EBIAT -123.97-28.34-101.70-198.63-17.16-40.27-32.06-25.52-20.32-16.18
Depreciation 34.5335.2351.6135.7410.2110.698.516.775.394.29
Accounts Receivable --200.5593.04135.256.1722.197.556.014.793.81
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -72.501.02-96.98-51.55-17.78-8.89-7.08-5.63-4.49
Capital Expenditure -25.68-19.11-19.60-4.53-2.36-3.02-2.40-1.91-1.52-1.21
UFCF -115.12-140.2824.37-129.15-54.70-28.18-27.29-21.72-17.29-13.77
WACC
PV UFCF -25.73-22.75-16.53-12.02-8.73
SUM PV UFCF -85.76

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.53
Free cash flow (t + 1) -14.04
Terminal Value -186.50
Present Value of Terminal Value -118.31

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -204.07
Net Debt -9.21
Equity Value -194.86
Shares Outstanding 123.62
Equity Value Per Share -1.58