Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB)

$22.68

-0.12 (-0.53%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 86.43 | 22.68 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 332.68361.99405.11445.47415.01439.75465.97493.75523.19554.38
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 51.7335.9168.1095.3380.8173.1377.4982.1187.0192.20
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 48.6231.8263.0890.3275.5168.1272.1876.4881.0485.87
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3.114.095.025.015.305.025.325.635.976.33
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 3.3195.2541.76128.32106.4080.9785.7990.9196.33102.07
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2.626.919.336.508.387.457.908.378.879.40
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 91.2470.9879.7587.61119.92101.39107.43113.84120.63127.82
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 6.8414.139.207.368.3610.4611.0911.7512.4513.19
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2.27-4.82-6.14-6.16-7.68-5.95-6.30-6.68-7.07-7.49
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 22.68
Beta 0.484
Diluted Shares Outstanding 18.06
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 27.27
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.40%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.569
Total Debt 417.35
Total Equity 409.49
Total Capital 826.84
Debt Weighting 50.48
Equity Weighting 49.52
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 332.68361.99405.11445.47415.01439.75465.97493.75523.19554.38
EBITDA 51.7335.9168.1095.3380.8173.1377.4982.1187.0192.20
EBIT 48.6231.8263.0890.3275.5168.1272.1876.4881.0485.87
Tax Rate 19.91%12.92%23.26%20.28%27.27%20.73%20.73%20.73%20.73%20.73%
EBIAT 38.9427.7148.417254.925457.2260.6364.2468.07
Depreciation 3.114.095.025.015.305.025.325.635.976.33
Accounts Receivable --4.29-2.422.83-1.880.92-0.44-0.47-0.50-0.53
Inventories -20.26-8.77-7.86-32.3118.53-6.04-6.40-6.79-7.19
Accounts Payable -7.29-4.93-1.840.992.110.620.660.700.74
Capital Expenditure -2.27-4.82-6.13-6.16-7.68-5.95-6.30-6.68-7.07-7.49
UFCF 39.7850.2431.176419.3474.6350.3753.3756.5559.92
WACC
PV UFCF 71.0945.7146.1446.5847.02
SUM PV UFCF 256.55

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.97
Free cash flow (t + 1) 61.12
Terminal Value 2,058.02
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,614.81

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,871.36
Net Debt 310.95
Equity Value 1,560.42
Shares Outstanding 18.06
Equity Value Per Share 86.43