Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

TPI Composites, Inc. (TPIC)

$11.49

-0.04 (-0.35%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -39.02 | 11.49 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,029.621,436.501,670.141,732.581,522.741,703.221,905.092,130.882,383.442,665.93
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 39.0954.1729.86-66.57-44.098.929.9711.1612.4813.96
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 12.6615.59-19.81-119.17-89.57-39.62-44.32-49.57-55.44-62.02
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 26.4338.5849.6752.5945.4848.5454.2960.7267.9275.97
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 85.3570.28129.86242.16133.55148.88166.52186.26208.33233.02
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 304.68373.21132.77365.80400.75377.95422.75472.85528.90591.58
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 5.736.7310.8411.5310.6610.3611.5812.9614.4916.21
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 199.08293.10295.99336.70280.50324.69363.17406.21454.36508.21
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -52.69-74.41-65.67-37.12-18.83-59.98-67.09-75.04-83.93-93.88
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 11.49
Beta 1.868
Diluted Shares Outstanding 41.96
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -378.88
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.32%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.530
Total Debt 216.76
Total Equity 482.11
Total Capital 698.86
Debt Weighting 31.02
Equity Weighting 68.98
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,029.621,436.501,670.141,732.581,522.741,703.221,905.092,130.882,383.442,665.93
EBITDA 39.0954.1729.86-66.57-44.098.929.9711.1612.4813.96
EBIT 12.6615.59-19.81-119.17-89.57-39.62-44.32-49.57-55.44-62.02
Tax Rate -135.04%312.07%-145.73%-20.15%-378.88%-73.55%-73.55%-73.55%-73.55%-73.55%
EBIAT 29.76-33.05-48.68-143.18-428.92-68.76-76.91-86.03-96.22-107.63
Depreciation 26.4338.5849.6752.5945.4848.5454.2960.7267.9275.97
Accounts Receivable --68.53240.45-233.03-34.9522.80-44.80-50.10-56.04-62.69
Inventories --1-4.11-0.690.870.30-1.23-1.37-1.54-1.72
Accounts Payable -94.032.8940.70-56.2044.1938.4843.0448.1553.85
Capital Expenditure -52.69-74.41-65.67-37.12-18.83-59.98-67.09-75.04-83.93-93.88
UFCF 3.50-44.38174.55-320.73-492.54-12.92-97.25-108.78-121.67-136.09
WACC
PV UFCF -11.81-81.32-83.17-85.06-87
SUM PV UFCF -348.36

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.36
Free cash flow (t + 1) -138.81
Terminal Value -1,886.02
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,205.74

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,554.11
Net Debt 83.21
Equity Value -1,637.32
Shares Outstanding 41.96
Equity Value Per Share -39.02