Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
TPI Composites, Inc. (TPIC)
$2.65
-0.03 (-0.93%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 1,029.62 | 1,436.50 | 1,670.14 | 1,732.58 | 1,522.74 | 1,703.22 | 1,905.09 | 2,130.88 | 2,383.44 | 2,665.93 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 29.55 | 41.74 | 34.58 | -58.62 | -15.37 | 11.76 | 13.16 | 14.71 | 16.46 | 18.41 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 3.12 | 3.16 | -15.09 | -111.22 | -60.85 | -36.78 | -41.13 | -46.01 | -51.46 | -57.56 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 26.43 | 38.58 | 49.67 | 52.59 | 45.48 | 48.54 | 54.29 | 60.72 | 67.92 | 75.97 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 85.35 | 70.28 | 129.86 | 242.16 | 133.55 | 148.88 | 166.52 | 186.26 | 208.33 | 233.02 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 293.52 | 350.53 | 349.70 | 346.13 | 400.75 | 409.26 | 457.76 | 512.02 | 572.70 | 640.58 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 5.73 | 6.73 | 10.84 | 11.53 | 10.66 | 10.36 | 11.58 | 12.96 | 14.49 | 16.21 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 199.08 | 293.10 | 295.99 | 336.70 | 280.50 | 324.69 | 363.17 | 406.21 | 454.36 | 508.21 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -52.69 | -74.41 | -65.67 | -37.12 | -18.83 | -59.98 | -67.09 | -75.04 | -83.93 | -93.88 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 2.65 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.793 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 41.96 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -114.17 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.32% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 13.100 |
Total Debt | 216.76 |
Total Equity | 111.19 |
Total Capital | 327.95 |
Debt Weighting | 66.09 |
Equity Weighting | 33.91 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 1,029.62 | 1,436.50 | 1,670.14 | 1,732.58 | 1,522.74 | 1,703.22 | 1,905.09 | 2,130.88 | 2,383.44 | 2,665.93 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 29.55 | 41.74 | 34.58 | -58.62 | -15.37 | 11.76 | 13.16 | 14.71 | 16.46 | 18.41 |
EBIT | 3.12 | 3.16 | -15.09 | -111.22 | -60.85 | -36.78 | -41.13 | -46.01 | -51.46 | -57.56 |
Tax Rate | -135.04% | 312.07% | -145.73% | -20.15% | -114.17% | -20.61% | -20.61% | -20.61% | -20.61% | -20.61% |
EBIAT | 7.33 | -6.70 | -37.07 | -133.63 | -130.33 | -44.35 | -49.61 | -55.49 | -62.07 | -69.42 |
Depreciation | 26.43 | 38.58 | 49.67 | 52.59 | 45.48 | 48.54 | 54.29 | 60.72 | 67.92 | 75.97 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -57 | 0.83 | 3.57 | -54.62 | -8.51 | -48.51 | -54.26 | -60.69 | -67.88 |
Inventories | - | -1 | -4.11 | -0.69 | 0.87 | 0.30 | -1.23 | -1.37 | -1.54 | -1.72 |
Accounts Payable | - | 94.03 | 2.89 | 40.70 | -56.20 | 44.19 | 38.48 | 43.04 | 48.15 | 53.85 |
Capital Expenditure | -52.69 | -74.41 | -65.67 | -37.12 | -18.83 | -59.98 | -67.09 | -75.04 | -83.93 | -93.88 |
UFCF | -18.93 | -6.50 | -53.46 | -74.57 | -213.63 | -19.81 | -73.66 | -82.39 | -92.16 | -103.08 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -18.70 | -65.59 | -69.24 | -73.08 | -77.14 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -303.74 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 5.97 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -105.14 |
Terminal Value | -2,648.37 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -1,981.82 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -2,285.57 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 83.21 |
Equity Value | -2,368.78 |
Shares Outstanding | 41.96 |
Equity Value Per Share | -56.45 |