Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

TPI Composites, Inc. (TPIC)

$2.65

-0.03 (-0.93%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -56.45 | 2.65 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,029.621,436.501,670.141,732.581,522.741,703.221,905.092,130.882,383.442,665.93
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 29.5541.7434.58-58.62-15.3711.7613.1614.7116.4618.41
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3.123.16-15.09-111.22-60.85-36.78-41.13-46.01-51.46-57.56
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 26.4338.5849.6752.5945.4848.5454.2960.7267.9275.97
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 85.3570.28129.86242.16133.55148.88166.52186.26208.33233.02
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 293.52350.53349.70346.13400.75409.26457.76512.02572.70640.58
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 5.736.7310.8411.5310.6610.3611.5812.9614.4916.21
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 199.08293.10295.99336.70280.50324.69363.17406.21454.36508.21
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -52.69-74.41-65.67-37.12-18.83-59.98-67.09-75.04-83.93-93.88
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.65
Beta 1.793
Diluted Shares Outstanding 41.96
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -114.17
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.32%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.100
Total Debt 216.76
Total Equity 111.19
Total Capital 327.95
Debt Weighting 66.09
Equity Weighting 33.91
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,029.621,436.501,670.141,732.581,522.741,703.221,905.092,130.882,383.442,665.93
EBITDA 29.5541.7434.58-58.62-15.3711.7613.1614.7116.4618.41
EBIT 3.123.16-15.09-111.22-60.85-36.78-41.13-46.01-51.46-57.56
Tax Rate -135.04%312.07%-145.73%-20.15%-114.17%-20.61%-20.61%-20.61%-20.61%-20.61%
EBIAT 7.33-6.70-37.07-133.63-130.33-44.35-49.61-55.49-62.07-69.42
Depreciation 26.4338.5849.6752.5945.4848.5454.2960.7267.9275.97
Accounts Receivable --570.833.57-54.62-8.51-48.51-54.26-60.69-67.88
Inventories --1-4.11-0.690.870.30-1.23-1.37-1.54-1.72
Accounts Payable -94.032.8940.70-56.2044.1938.4843.0448.1553.85
Capital Expenditure -52.69-74.41-65.67-37.12-18.83-59.98-67.09-75.04-83.93-93.88
UFCF -18.93-6.50-53.46-74.57-213.63-19.81-73.66-82.39-92.16-103.08
WACC
PV UFCF -18.70-65.59-69.24-73.08-77.14
SUM PV UFCF -303.74

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.97
Free cash flow (t + 1) -105.14
Terminal Value -2,648.37
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,981.82

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -2,285.57
Net Debt 83.21
Equity Value -2,368.78
Shares Outstanding 41.96
Equity Value Per Share -56.45