Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
TPI Composites, Inc. (TPIC)
$11.49
-0.04 (-0.35%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 1,029.62 | 1,436.50 | 1,670.14 | 1,732.58 | 1,522.74 | 1,703.22 | 1,905.09 | 2,130.88 | 2,383.44 | 2,665.93 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 39.09 | 54.17 | 29.86 | -66.57 | -44.09 | 8.92 | 9.97 | 11.16 | 12.48 | 13.96 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 12.66 | 15.59 | -19.81 | -119.17 | -89.57 | -39.62 | -44.32 | -49.57 | -55.44 | -62.02 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 26.43 | 38.58 | 49.67 | 52.59 | 45.48 | 48.54 | 54.29 | 60.72 | 67.92 | 75.97 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 85.35 | 70.28 | 129.86 | 242.16 | 133.55 | 148.88 | 166.52 | 186.26 | 208.33 | 233.02 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 304.68 | 373.21 | 132.77 | 365.80 | 400.75 | 377.95 | 422.75 | 472.85 | 528.90 | 591.58 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 5.73 | 6.73 | 10.84 | 11.53 | 10.66 | 10.36 | 11.58 | 12.96 | 14.49 | 16.21 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 199.08 | 293.10 | 295.99 | 336.70 | 280.50 | 324.69 | 363.17 | 406.21 | 454.36 | 508.21 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -52.69 | -74.41 | -65.67 | -37.12 | -18.83 | -59.98 | -67.09 | -75.04 | -83.93 | -93.88 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 11.49 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.868 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 41.96 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -378.88 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.32% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 12.530 |
Total Debt | 216.76 |
Total Equity | 482.11 |
Total Capital | 698.86 |
Debt Weighting | 31.02 |
Equity Weighting | 68.98 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 1,029.62 | 1,436.50 | 1,670.14 | 1,732.58 | 1,522.74 | 1,703.22 | 1,905.09 | 2,130.88 | 2,383.44 | 2,665.93 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 39.09 | 54.17 | 29.86 | -66.57 | -44.09 | 8.92 | 9.97 | 11.16 | 12.48 | 13.96 |
EBIT | 12.66 | 15.59 | -19.81 | -119.17 | -89.57 | -39.62 | -44.32 | -49.57 | -55.44 | -62.02 |
Tax Rate | -135.04% | 312.07% | -145.73% | -20.15% | -378.88% | -73.55% | -73.55% | -73.55% | -73.55% | -73.55% |
EBIAT | 29.76 | -33.05 | -48.68 | -143.18 | -428.92 | -68.76 | -76.91 | -86.03 | -96.22 | -107.63 |
Depreciation | 26.43 | 38.58 | 49.67 | 52.59 | 45.48 | 48.54 | 54.29 | 60.72 | 67.92 | 75.97 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -68.53 | 240.45 | -233.03 | -34.95 | 22.80 | -44.80 | -50.10 | -56.04 | -62.69 |
Inventories | - | -1 | -4.11 | -0.69 | 0.87 | 0.30 | -1.23 | -1.37 | -1.54 | -1.72 |
Accounts Payable | - | 94.03 | 2.89 | 40.70 | -56.20 | 44.19 | 38.48 | 43.04 | 48.15 | 53.85 |
Capital Expenditure | -52.69 | -74.41 | -65.67 | -37.12 | -18.83 | -59.98 | -67.09 | -75.04 | -83.93 | -93.88 |
UFCF | 3.50 | -44.38 | 174.55 | -320.73 | -492.54 | -12.92 | -97.25 | -108.78 | -121.67 | -136.09 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -11.81 | -81.32 | -83.17 | -85.06 | -87 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -348.36 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 9.36 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -138.81 |
Terminal Value | -1,886.02 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -1,205.74 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -1,554.11 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 83.21 |
Equity Value | -1,637.32 |
Shares Outstanding | 41.96 |
Equity Value Per Share | -39.02 |