Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

TPI Composites, Inc. (TPIC)

$2.65

-0.03 (-0.93%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -56.45 | 2.65 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	1,029.62	1,436.50	1,670.14	1,732.58	1,522.74	1,703.22	1,905.09	2,130.88	2,383.44	2,665.93
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	29.55	41.74	34.58	-58.62	-15.37	11.76	13.16	14.71	16.46	18.41
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	3.12	3.16	-15.09	-111.22	-60.85	-36.78	-41.13	-46.01	-51.46	-57.56
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	26.43	38.58	49.67	52.59	45.48	48.54	54.29	60.72	67.92	75.97
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	85.35	70.28	129.86	242.16	133.55	148.88	166.52	186.26	208.33	233.02
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	293.52	350.53	349.70	346.13	400.75	409.26	457.76	512.02	572.70	640.58
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	5.73	6.73	10.84	11.53	10.66	10.36	11.58	12.96	14.49	16.21
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	199.08	293.10	295.99	336.70	280.50	324.69	363.17	406.21	454.36	508.21
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-52.69	-74.41	-65.67	-37.12	-18.83	-59.98	-67.09	-75.04	-83.93	-93.88
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 2.65
Beta	1.793
Diluted Shares Outstanding	41.96
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-114.17
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.32%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	13.100
Total Debt	216.76
Total Equity	111.19
Total Capital	327.95
Debt Weighting	66.09
Equity Weighting	33.91
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	1,029.62	1,436.50	1,670.14	1,732.58	1,522.74	1,703.22	1,905.09	2,130.88	2,383.44	2,665.93
EBITDA	29.55	41.74	34.58	-58.62	-15.37	11.76	13.16	14.71	16.46	18.41
EBIT	3.12	3.16	-15.09	-111.22	-60.85	-36.78	-41.13	-46.01	-51.46	-57.56
Tax Rate	-135.04%	312.07%	-145.73%	-20.15%	-114.17%	-20.61%	-20.61%	-20.61%	-20.61%	-20.61%
EBIAT	7.33	-6.70	-37.07	-133.63	-130.33	-44.35	-49.61	-55.49	-62.07	-69.42
Depreciation	26.43	38.58	49.67	52.59	45.48	48.54	54.29	60.72	67.92	75.97
Accounts Receivable	-	-57	0.83	3.57	-54.62	-8.51	-48.51	-54.26	-60.69	-67.88
Inventories	-	-1	-4.11	-0.69	0.87	0.30	-1.23	-1.37	-1.54	-1.72
Accounts Payable	-	94.03	2.89	40.70	-56.20	44.19	38.48	43.04	48.15	53.85
Capital Expenditure	-52.69	-74.41	-65.67	-37.12	-18.83	-59.98	-67.09	-75.04	-83.93	-93.88
UFCF	-18.93	-6.50	-53.46	-74.57	-213.63	-19.81	-73.66	-82.39	-92.16	-103.08
WACC
PV UFCF						-18.70	-65.59	-69.24	-73.08	-77.14
SUM PV UFCF										-303.74

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.97
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-105.14
Terminal Value	-2,648.37
Present Value of Terminal Value	-1,981.82

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-2,285.57
Net Debt	83.21
Equity Value	-2,368.78
Shares Outstanding	41.96
Equity Value Per Share	-56.45