Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Tempur Sealy International, Inc. (TPX)

$31.34

-0.12 (-0.38%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 44.95 | 31.34 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,754.402,702.903,1063,6764,930.805,738.596,678.727,772.879,046.2710,528.28
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 388.40329.50439.606271,002.30893.261,039.591,209.911,408.121,638.81
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 307.10242.40349.90529889.10732.30852.27991.901,154.401,343.52
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 81.3087.1089.7098113.20160.95187.32218.01253.73295.29
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 41.9045.8064.9065300.70151.18175.94204.77238.31277.35
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 317.70321.50372383419.50623.58725.74844.64983.011,144.05
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 183222.30260.50312463.90472.30549.67639.72744.53866.50
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 241.20253251.70324432502.66585680.84792.38922.19
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -67-73.60-88.20-111.30-123.30-155.21-180.64-210.23-244.67-284.76
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 31.34
Beta 1.738
Diluted Shares Outstanding 212.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.21
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.76%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.887
Total Debt 2,860.20
Total Equity 6,653.48
Total Capital 9,513.68
Debt Weighting 30.06
Equity Weighting 69.94
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,754.402,702.903,1063,6764,930.805,738.596,678.727,772.879,046.2710,528.28
EBITDA 388.40329.50439.606271,002.30893.261,039.591,209.911,408.121,638.81
EBIT 307.10242.40349.90529889.10732.30852.27991.901,154.401,343.52
Tax Rate 19.64%39.09%28.63%-22.57%24.21%17.80%17.80%17.80%17.80%17.80%
EBIAT 246.79147.64249.74648.38673.84601.95700.57815.34948.911,104.37
Depreciation 81.3087.1089.7098113.20160.95187.32218.01253.73295.29
Accounts Receivable --3.80-50.50-11-36.50-204.08-102.16-118.90-138.37-161.04
Inventories --39.30-38.20-51.50-151.90-8.40-77.37-90.05-104.80-121.97
Accounts Payable -11.80-1.3072.3010870.6682.3595.84111.54129.81
Capital Expenditure -67-73.60-88.20-111.30-123.30-155.21-180.64-210.23-244.67-284.76
UFCF 261.09129.84161.24644.88583.34465.87610.06710.01826.33961.70
WACC
PV UFCF 428.03514.99550.68588.84629.65
SUM PV UFCF 2,712.19

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.84
Free cash flow (t + 1) 980.94
Terminal Value 14,341.16
Present Value of Terminal Value 9,389.48

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 12,101.67
Net Debt 2,559.50
Equity Value 9,542.17
Shares Outstanding 212.30
Equity Value Per Share 44.95