Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

TrueCar, Inc. (TRUE)

$3.43

+0.13 (+3.94%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 3.03 | 3.43 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 323.15353.57353.88278.68231.70215.13199.74185.46172.19159.88
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -10.01-3.19-23.04102.32-17.558.027.446.916.425.96
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -32.40-25.85-54.6076.54-38.12-9.36-8.69-8.07-7.49-6.96
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 22.3922.6631.5725.7820.5717.3816.1314.9813.9112.91
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 197.76196.13181.53293.22245.22163.08151.41140.58130.53121.19
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 39.1747.7644.8932.9216.7124.6722.9121.2719.7518.33
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 18.6226.3021.3413.2011.3612.4211.5310.719.949.23
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -19.81-17.10-11.28-10.28-10.69-9.66-8.97-8.33-7.73-7.18
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.43
Beta 1.011
Diluted Shares Outstanding 106.31
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -0.43
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.516
Total Debt 31.55
Total Equity 364.66
Total Capital 396.21
Debt Weighting 7.96
Equity Weighting 92.04
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 323.15353.57353.88278.68231.70215.13199.74185.46172.19159.88
EBITDA -10.01-3.19-23.04102.32-17.558.027.446.916.425.96
EBIT -32.40-25.85-54.6076.54-38.12-9.36-8.69-8.07-7.49-6.96
Tax Rate 6.18%0.62%-0.53%485.71%-0.43%98.31%98.31%98.31%98.31%98.31%
EBIAT -30.40-25.69-54.89-295.21-38.29-0.16-0.15-0.14-0.13-0.12
Depreciation 22.3922.6631.5725.7820.5717.3816.1314.9813.9112.91
Accounts Receivable --8.592.8711.9716.21-7.961.761.641.521.41
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -7.68-4.97-8.14-1.831.06-0.89-0.82-0.77-0.71
Capital Expenditure -19.81-17.10-11.28-10.28-10.69-9.66-8.97-8.33-7.73-7.18
UFCF -27.82-21.03-36.71-275.88-14.020.667.897.336.806.32
WACC
PV UFCF 0.616.855.935.134.44
SUM PV UFCF 22.96

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.32
Free cash flow (t + 1) 6.44
Terminal Value 121.13
Present Value of Terminal Value 85.08

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 108.04
Net Debt -213.66
Equity Value 321.71
Shares Outstanding 106.31
Equity Value Per Share 3.03