Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV)

$220.18

+0.10 (+0.05%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 475.85 | 220.18 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 31,58131,98134,81636,88441,36444,281.9447,405.7250,749.8754,329.9158,162.51
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3,6323,7474,9734,5757004,569.604,891.955,237.045,606.486,001.98
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,8692,9584,1033,705-223,552.343,802.934,071.204,358.394,665.85
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 7637898708707221,017.261,089.021,165.841,248.091,336.13
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 73,57180,23582,40775,42983,59499,823.26106,865.10114,403.68122,474.06131,113.75
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 20,76320,42120,42720,56421,67426,252.2428,104.1530,086.7032,209.1134,481.23
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -22,343-24,033-21,822-25,643.49-28,758.19-30,786.88-32,958.68-35,283.68-37,772.70-40,437.30
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 4,9824,6174,2954,0153,7875,543.135,934.166,352.776,800.927,280.67
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure --33.183.563.824.084.374.685.01
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 220.18
Beta 0.594
Diluted Shares Outstanding 232.20
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 11.27
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.03%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.103
Total Debt 8,274
Total Equity 51,125.80
Total Capital 59,399.80
Debt Weighting 13.93
Equity Weighting 86.07
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 31,58131,98134,81636,88441,36444,281.9447,405.7250,749.8754,329.9158,162.51
EBITDA 3,6323,7474,9734,5757004,569.604,891.955,237.045,606.486,001.98
EBIT 2,8692,9584,1033,705-223,552.343,802.934,071.204,358.394,665.85
Tax Rate 16.44%16.68%17.86%15.27%11.27%15.50%15.50%15.50%15.50%15.50%
EBIAT 2,397.232,464.543,370.393,139.42-19.523,001.593,213.333,440.013,682.683,942.46
Depreciation 7637898708707221,017.261,089.021,165.841,248.091,336.13
Accounts Receivable -342-6-137-1,110-4,578.24-1,851.91-1,982.55-2,122.41-2,272.13
Inventories -1,690-2,2113,821.493,114.712,028.692,171.802,3252,489.022,664.60
Accounts Payable --365-322-280-2281,756.13391.03418.61448.14479.76
Capital Expenditure --33.183.563.824.084.374.685.01
UFCF 3,160.234,920.541,704.397,417.082,482.753,229.255,017.355,371.295,750.206,155.83
WACC
PV UFCF 3,027.334,409.514,425.394,441.344,457.34
SUM PV UFCF 20,760.90

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.67
Free cash flow (t + 1) 6,278.95
Terminal Value 134,452.92
Present Value of Terminal Value 97,355.11

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 118,116.01
Net Debt 7,624
Equity Value 110,492.01
Shares Outstanding 232.20
Equity Value Per Share 475.85