Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV)
$164.91
+1.05 (+0.64%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 30,282 | 31,581 | 31,981 | 34,816 | 36,884 | 38,761.46 | 40,734.49 | 42,807.94 | 44,986.94 | 47,276.85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 4,116 | 4,245 | 4,365 | 5,668 | 4,575 | 5,377.47 | 5,651.19 | 5,938.85 | 6,241.15 | 6,558.83 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 3,313 | 3,482 | 3,576 | 4,798 | 3,705 | 4,416.77 | 4,641.59 | 4,877.86 | 5,126.15 | 5,387.08 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 803 | 763 | 789 | 870 | 870 | 960.70 | 1,009.60 | 1,060.99 | 1,115 | 1,171.75 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 67,822 | 73,571 | 80,235 | 82,407 | 75,429 | 89,074.40 | 93,608.44 | 98,373.27 | 103,380.64 | 108,642.90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 20,661 | 20,763 | 20,421 | 20,427 | 20,564 | 24,206.68 | 25,438.84 | 26,733.72 | 28,094.51 | 29,524.57 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 5,074 | 4,982 | 4,617 | 4,295 | 4,015 | 5,441.30 | 5,718.27 | 6,009.34 | 6,315.23 | 6,636.69 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 164.91 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.625 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 254.60 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 15.27 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.08% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.332 |
| Total Debt | 7,292 |
| Total Equity | 41,986.09 |
| Total Capital | 49,278.09 |
| Debt Weighting | 14.80 |
| Equity Weighting | 85.20 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 30,282 | 31,581 | 31,981 | 34,816 | 36,884 | 38,761.46 | 40,734.49 | 42,807.94 | 44,986.94 | 47,276.85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 4,116 | 4,245 | 4,365 | 5,668 | 4,575 | 5,377.47 | 5,651.19 | 5,938.85 | 6,241.15 | 6,558.83 |
| EBIT | 3,313 | 3,482 | 3,576 | 4,798 | 3,705 | 4,416.77 | 4,641.59 | 4,877.86 | 5,126.15 | 5,387.08 |
| Tax Rate | 14.79% | 16.44% | 16.68% | 17.86% | 15.27% | 16.21% | 16.21% | 16.21% | 16.21% | 16.21% |
| EBIAT | 2,822.93 | 2,909.43 | 2,979.45 | 3,941.29 | 3,139.42 | 3,700.91 | 3,889.30 | 4,087.27 | 4,295.32 | 4,513.96 |
| Depreciation | 803 | 763 | 789 | 870 | 870 | 960.70 | 1,009.60 | 1,060.99 | 1,115 | 1,171.75 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -102 | 342 | -6 | -137 | -3,642.68 | -1,232.16 | -1,294.88 | -1,360.79 | -1,430.06 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | -92 | -365 | -322 | -280 | 1,426.30 | 276.97 | 291.07 | 305.89 | 321.46 |
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | 2,445.23 | 3,943.70 | 4,144.45 | 4,355.40 | 4,577.10 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 2,306.82 | 3,509.88 | 3,479.76 | 3,449.89 | 3,420.28 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 16,166.63 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.00 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 4,668.64 |
| Terminal Value | 116,716.11 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 87,217.07 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 103,383.70 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 6,493 |
| Equity Value | 96,890.70 |
| Shares Outstanding | 254.60 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 380.56 |