Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV)

$164.91

+1.05 (+0.64%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 380.56 | 164.91 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 30,28231,58131,98134,81636,88438,761.4640,734.4942,807.9444,986.9447,276.85
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 4,1164,2454,3655,6684,5755,377.475,651.195,938.856,241.156,558.83
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3,3133,4823,5764,7983,7054,416.774,641.594,877.865,126.155,387.08
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 803763789870870960.701,009.601,060.991,1151,171.75
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 67,82273,57180,23582,40775,42989,074.4093,608.4498,373.27103,380.64108,642.90
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 20,66120,76320,42120,42720,56424,206.6825,438.8426,733.7228,094.5129,524.57
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 5,0744,9824,6174,2954,0155,441.305,718.276,009.346,315.236,636.69
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure ----------
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 164.91
Beta 0.625
Diluted Shares Outstanding 254.60
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 15.27
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.08%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.332
Total Debt 7,292
Total Equity 41,986.09
Total Capital 49,278.09
Debt Weighting 14.80
Equity Weighting 85.20
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 30,28231,58131,98134,81636,88438,761.4640,734.4942,807.9444,986.9447,276.85
EBITDA 4,1164,2454,3655,6684,5755,377.475,651.195,938.856,241.156,558.83
EBIT 3,3133,4823,5764,7983,7054,416.774,641.594,877.865,126.155,387.08
Tax Rate 14.79%16.44%16.68%17.86%15.27%16.21%16.21%16.21%16.21%16.21%
EBIAT 2,822.932,909.432,979.453,941.293,139.423,700.913,889.304,087.274,295.324,513.96
Depreciation 803763789870870960.701,009.601,060.991,1151,171.75
Accounts Receivable --102342-6-137-3,642.68-1,232.16-1,294.88-1,360.79-1,430.06
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --92-365-322-2801,426.30276.97291.07305.89321.46
Capital Expenditure ----------
UFCF -----2,445.233,943.704,144.454,355.404,577.10
WACC
PV UFCF 2,306.823,509.883,479.763,449.893,420.28
SUM PV UFCF 16,166.63

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.00
Free cash flow (t + 1) 4,668.64
Terminal Value 116,716.11
Present Value of Terminal Value 87,217.07

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 103,383.70
Net Debt 6,493
Equity Value 96,890.70
Shares Outstanding 254.60
Equity Value Per Share 380.56