Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Tenaris S.A. (TS)

$32

+0.13 (+0.41%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 42.20 | 32 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	7,658.59	7,294.05	5,146.73	6,521.21	11,762.53	13,905.66	16,439.27	19,434.51	22,975.48	27,161.62
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	1,782.75	1,511.62	779.96	1,915.61	3,854.85	3,373.62	3,988.29	4,714.96	5,574.02	6,589.61
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	1,118.40	972.10	101.15	1,320.89	3,247.12	2,162.52	2,556.53	3,022.33	3,573	4,224.01
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	664.36	539.52	678.81	594.72	607.72	1,211.10	1,431.76	1,692.62	2,001.02	2,365.61
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	916.10	1,764.68	1,457.17	715.98	1,529.98	2,460.02	2,908.24	3,438.12	4,064.54	4,805.10
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,953	1,564.18	1,106.50	1,526.67	2,820.90	3,221.59	3,808.56	4,502.48	5,322.83	6,292.65
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	2,524.34	2,265.88	1,636.67	2,672.59	3,986.93	4,747.51	5,612.51	6,635.10	7,844.02	9,273.20
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	693.67	555.89	462.11	845.26	1,179.46	1,352.91	1,599.41	1,890.82	2,235.33	2,642.61
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-343.46	-348.08	-194.35	-244.59	-397.35	-560.73	-662.89	-783.67	-926.46	-1,095.26
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 32
Beta	1.611
Diluted Shares Outstanding	590.27
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	19.35
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.40%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	12.254
Total Debt	840.94
Total Equity	18,888.59
Total Capital	19,729.53
Debt Weighting	4.26
Equity Weighting	95.74
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	7,658.59	7,294.05	5,146.73	6,521.21	11,762.53	13,905.66	16,439.27	19,434.51	22,975.48	27,161.62
EBITDA	1,782.75	1,511.62	779.96	1,915.61	3,854.85	3,373.62	3,988.29	4,714.96	5,574.02	6,589.61
EBIT	1,118.40	972.10	101.15	1,320.89	3,247.12	2,162.52	2,556.53	3,022.33	3,573	4,224.01
Tax Rate	20.58%	20.46%	-3.74%	11.47%	19.35%	13.63%	13.63%	13.63%	13.63%	13.63%
EBIAT	888.20	773.22	104.94	1,169.36	2,618.75	1,867.87	2,208.20	2,610.53	3,086.17	3,648.47
Depreciation	664.36	539.52	678.81	594.72	607.72	1,211.10	1,431.76	1,692.62	2,001.02	2,365.61
Accounts Receivable	-	388.82	457.68	-420.17	-1,294.24	-400.68	-586.97	-693.92	-820.35	-969.82
Inventories	-	258.46	629.21	-1,035.92	-1,314.34	-760.58	-865	-1,022.60	-1,208.92	-1,429.18
Accounts Payable	-	-137.79	-93.78	383.15	334.20	173.45	246.50	291.41	344.51	407.28
Capital Expenditure	-343.46	-348.08	-194.35	-244.59	-397.35	-560.73	-662.89	-783.67	-926.46	-1,095.26
UFCF	1,209.10	1,474.16	1,582.49	446.55	554.76	1,530.43	1,771.59	2,094.38	2,475.97	2,927.10
WACC
PV UFCF						1,367.43	1,414.32	1,493.94	1,578.03	1,666.86
SUM PV UFCF										7,520.58

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	11.92
Free cash flow (t + 1)	2,985.64
Terminal Value	30,097.16
Present Value of Terminal Value	17,139.06

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	24,659.64
Net Debt	-250.59
Equity Value	24,910.22
Shares Outstanding	590.27
Equity Value Per Share	42.20