Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Timberland Bancorp, Inc. (TSBK)
$23.66
+0.10 (+0.42%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 48.77 | 62.18 | 65.10 | 65.52 | 64.65 | 69.74 | 75.24 | 81.16 | 87.55 | 94.45 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 26.98 | 37.19 | 37.82 | 40.57 | 35.08 | 40.37 | 43.55 | 46.98 | 50.68 | 54.67 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 25.20 | 34.49 | 35.01 | 37.53 | 32.24 | 37.39 | 40.33 | 43.51 | 46.94 | 50.63 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 1.78 | 2.70 | 2.82 | 3.03 | 2.84 | 2.98 | 3.21 | 3.47 | 3.74 | 4.03 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 213.31 | 243.89 | 437.90 | 671.85 | 381.06 | 434.80 | 469.04 | 505.98 | 545.83 | 588.81 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 2.88 | 3.60 | 4.48 | 3.75 | 4.48 | 4.36 | 4.70 | 5.07 | 5.47 | 5.90 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 2.89 | 4.71 | 4.20 | 4.29 | 4.91 | 4.76 | 5.13 | 5.53 | 5.97 | 6.44 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -2.19 | -2.15 | -1.99 | -0.90 | -0.91 | -1.92 | -2.07 | -2.23 | -2.41 | -2.60 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 23.66 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.928 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 8.44 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 20.17 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 103.33% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.989 |
| Total Debt | 2.07 |
| Total Equity | 199.79 |
| Total Capital | 201.86 |
| Debt Weighting | 1.02 |
| Equity Weighting | 98.98 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 48.77 | 62.18 | 65.10 | 65.52 | 64.65 | 69.74 | 75.24 | 81.16 | 87.55 | 94.45 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 26.98 | 37.19 | 37.82 | 40.57 | 35.08 | 40.37 | 43.55 | 46.98 | 50.68 | 54.67 |
| EBIT | 25.20 | 34.49 | 35.01 | 37.53 | 32.24 | 37.39 | 40.33 | 43.51 | 46.94 | 50.63 |
| Tax Rate | 25.43% | 19.72% | 19.92% | 19.88% | 20.17% | 21.02% | 21.02% | 21.02% | 21.02% | 21.02% |
| EBIAT | 18.79 | 27.68 | 28.03 | 30.07 | 25.73 | 29.53 | 31.85 | 34.36 | 37.07 | 39.99 |
| Depreciation | 1.78 | 2.70 | 2.82 | 3.03 | 2.84 | 2.98 | 3.21 | 3.47 | 3.74 | 4.03 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -0.72 | -0.89 | 0.74 | -0.74 | 0.13 | -0.34 | -0.37 | -0.40 | -0.43 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 1.82 | -0.51 | 0.09 | 0.61 | -0.15 | 0.37 | 0.40 | 0.44 | 0.47 |
| Capital Expenditure | -2.19 | -2.15 | -1.99 | -0.90 | -0.91 | -1.92 | -2.07 | -2.23 | -2.41 | -2.60 |
| UFCF | 18.39 | 29.33 | 27.47 | 33.04 | 27.54 | 30.56 | 33.03 | 35.63 | 38.43 | 41.46 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 28.05 | 27.82 | 27.54 | 27.27 | 27 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 137.67 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.96 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 42.29 |
| Terminal Value | 607.60 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 395.63 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 533.30 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -337.58 |
| Equity Value | 870.88 |
| Shares Outstanding | 8.44 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 103.13 |