Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)
$255.72
-1.43 (-0.56%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 8,351.93 | 10,620.35 | 12,731.11 | 14,204.72 | 14,555.74 | 16,778.44 | 19,340.56 | 22,293.92 | 25,698.26 | 29,622.45 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 939.20 | 1,283.02 | 1,576.86 | 1,778.01 | 1,871.96 | 2,049.98 | 2,363.01 | 2,723.85 | 3,139.79 | 3,619.25 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 743.22 | 1,065.90 | 1,306.70 | 1,434.94 | 1,478.91 | 1,659.76 | 1,913.22 | 2,205.37 | 2,542.13 | 2,930.33 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 195.98 | 217.12 | 270.16 | 343.06 | 393.05 | 390.21 | 449.80 | 518.48 | 597.66 | 688.92 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 84.24 | 1,341.76 | 878.03 | 202.50 | 397.07 | 828.61 | 955.14 | 1,100.99 | 1,269.12 | 1,462.92 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | -0.56 | - | 17.10 | - | 2.46 | 4.85 | 5.59 | 6.44 | 7.43 | 8.56 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 1,602.78 | 1,783.27 | 2,191.19 | 2,709.60 | 2,645.85 | 3,035.07 | 3,498.54 | 4,032.78 | 4,648.59 | 5,358.44 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 643.04 | 976.10 | 1,155.63 | 1,398.29 | 1,179.80 | 1,473.70 | 1,698.74 | 1,958.14 | 2,257.16 | 2,601.83 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -217.45 | -294 | -628.43 | -773.37 | -753.88 | -702.41 | -809.67 | -933.30 | -1,075.82 | -1,240.10 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 255.72 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.842 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 109.75 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 22.70 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.37% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.330 |
Total Debt | 5,035.98 |
Total Equity | 28,064.25 |
Total Capital | 33,100.23 |
Debt Weighting | 15.21 |
Equity Weighting | 84.79 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 8,351.93 | 10,620.35 | 12,731.11 | 14,204.72 | 14,555.74 | 16,778.44 | 19,340.56 | 22,293.92 | 25,698.26 | 29,622.45 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 939.20 | 1,283.02 | 1,576.86 | 1,778.01 | 1,871.96 | 2,049.98 | 2,363.01 | 2,723.85 | 3,139.79 | 3,619.25 |
EBIT | 743.22 | 1,065.90 | 1,306.70 | 1,434.94 | 1,478.91 | 1,659.76 | 1,913.22 | 2,205.37 | 2,542.13 | 2,930.33 |
Tax Rate | 22.26% | 22.64% | 22.11% | 22.47% | 22.70% | 22.44% | 22.44% | 22.44% | 22.44% | 22.44% |
EBIAT | 577.78 | 824.58 | 1,017.84 | 1,112.46 | 1,143.18 | 1,287.38 | 1,483.96 | 1,710.57 | 1,971.78 | 2,272.87 |
Depreciation | 195.98 | 217.12 | 270.16 | 343.06 | 393.05 | 390.21 | 449.80 | 518.48 | 597.66 | 688.92 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -0.56 | - | 17.10 | - | -2.39 | -0.74 | -0.85 | -0.98 | -1.13 |
Inventories | - | -180.49 | -407.92 | -518.40 | 63.74 | -389.22 | -463.46 | -534.24 | -615.82 | -709.85 |
Accounts Payable | - | 333.06 | 179.53 | 242.66 | -218.49 | 293.90 | 225.04 | 259.40 | 299.01 | 344.67 |
Capital Expenditure | -217.45 | -294 | -628.43 | -773.37 | -753.88 | -702.41 | -809.67 | -933.30 | -1,075.82 | -1,240.10 |
UFCF | 556.31 | 899.72 | 431.18 | 423.51 | 627.60 | 877.47 | 884.93 | 1,020.06 | 1,175.83 | 1,355.38 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 815.65 | 764.62 | 819.28 | 877.84 | 940.60 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 4,217.98 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.58 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,382.49 |
Terminal Value | 24,775.75 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 17,193.69 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 21,411.67 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 4,638.91 |
Equity Value | 16,772.76 |
Shares Outstanding | 109.75 |
Equity Value Per Share | 152.83 |