Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)

$255.72

-1.43 (-0.56%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 152.83 | 255.72 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 8,351.9310,620.3512,731.1114,204.7214,555.7416,778.4419,340.5622,293.9225,698.2629,622.45
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 939.201,283.021,576.861,778.011,871.962,049.982,363.012,723.853,139.793,619.25
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 743.221,065.901,306.701,434.941,478.911,659.761,913.222,205.372,542.132,930.33
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 195.98217.12270.16343.06393.05390.21449.80518.48597.66688.92
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 84.241,341.76878.03202.50397.07828.61955.141,100.991,269.121,462.92
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables -0.56-17.10-2.464.855.596.447.438.56
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,602.781,783.272,191.192,709.602,645.853,035.073,498.544,032.784,648.595,358.44
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 643.04976.101,155.631,398.291,179.801,473.701,698.741,958.142,257.162,601.83
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -217.45-294-628.43-773.37-753.88-702.41-809.67-933.30-1,075.82-1,240.10
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 255.72
Beta 0.842
Diluted Shares Outstanding 109.75
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.70
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.37%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.330
Total Debt 5,035.98
Total Equity 28,064.25
Total Capital 33,100.23
Debt Weighting 15.21
Equity Weighting 84.79
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 8,351.9310,620.3512,731.1114,204.7214,555.7416,778.4419,340.5622,293.9225,698.2629,622.45
EBITDA 939.201,283.021,576.861,778.011,871.962,049.982,363.012,723.853,139.793,619.25
EBIT 743.221,065.901,306.701,434.941,478.911,659.761,913.222,205.372,542.132,930.33
Tax Rate 22.26%22.64%22.11%22.47%22.70%22.44%22.44%22.44%22.44%22.44%
EBIAT 577.78824.581,017.841,112.461,143.181,287.381,483.961,710.571,971.782,272.87
Depreciation 195.98217.12270.16343.06393.05390.21449.80518.48597.66688.92
Accounts Receivable --0.56-17.10--2.39-0.74-0.85-0.98-1.13
Inventories --180.49-407.92-518.4063.74-389.22-463.46-534.24-615.82-709.85
Accounts Payable -333.06179.53242.66-218.49293.90225.04259.40299.01344.67
Capital Expenditure -217.45-294-628.43-773.37-753.88-702.41-809.67-933.30-1,075.82-1,240.10
UFCF 556.31899.72431.18423.51627.60877.47884.931,020.061,175.831,355.38
WACC
PV UFCF 815.65764.62819.28877.84940.60
SUM PV UFCF 4,217.98

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.58
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,382.49
Terminal Value 24,775.75
Present Value of Terminal Value 17,193.69

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 21,411.67
Net Debt 4,638.91
Equity Value 16,772.76
Shares Outstanding 109.75
Equity Value Per Share 152.83