Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)

$227.21

+0.60 (+0.26%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 202.12 | 227.21 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	7,911.05	8,351.93	10,620.35	12,731.11	14,204.72	16,483.97	19,128.94	22,198.33	25,760.21	29,893.63
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	879.09	939.20	1,214.05	1,576.86	1,778.01	1,934.94	2,245.42	2,605.71	3,023.82	3,509.01
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	701.74	743.22	996.93	1,306.70	1,434.94	1,566.70	1,818.08	2,109.81	2,448.34	2,841.20
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	177.35	195.98	217.12	270.16	343.06	368.25	427.34	495.91	575.48	667.82
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	86.30	84.24	1,341.76	878.03	768.12	891.37	1,034.40	1,200.38	1,392.99	1,616.50
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	4.11	4.34	5.52	6.62	7.38	8.57	9.94	11.54	13.39	15.53
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	1,589.54	1,602.78	1,783.27	2,191.19	2,709.60	3,044.95	3,533.54	4,100.52	4,758.48	5,522.01
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	619.98	643.04	976.10	1,155.63	1,398.29	1,438.98	1,669.88	1,937.83	2,248.76	2,609.59
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-278.53	-217.45	-294	-628.43	-773.37	-635.40	-737.36	-855.67	-992.97	-1,152.30
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 227.21
Beta	0.826
Diluted Shares Outstanding	112.15
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	22.47
After-tax Cost of Debt	0.56%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.280
Total Debt	4,270.16
Total Equity	25,481.37
Total Capital	29,751.53
Debt Weighting	14.35
Equity Weighting	85.65
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	7,911.05	8,351.93	10,620.35	12,731.11	14,204.72	16,483.97	19,128.94	22,198.33	25,760.21	29,893.63
EBITDA	879.09	939.20	1,214.05	1,576.86	1,778.01	1,934.94	2,245.42	2,605.71	3,023.82	3,509.01
EBIT	701.74	743.22	996.93	1,306.70	1,434.94	1,566.70	1,818.08	2,109.81	2,448.34	2,841.20
Tax Rate	22.10%	22.26%	22.64%	22.11%	22.47%	22.32%	22.32%	22.32%	22.32%	22.32%
EBIAT	546.65	577.78	771.22	1,017.84	1,112.46	1,217.07	1,412.36	1,638.99	1,901.97	2,207.16
Depreciation	177.35	195.98	217.12	270.16	343.06	368.25	427.34	495.91	575.48	667.82
Accounts Receivable	-	-0.23	-1.18	-1.10	-0.77	-1.18	-1.37	-1.60	-1.85	-2.15
Inventories	-	-13.24	-180.49	-407.92	-518.40	-335.35	-488.58	-566.98	-657.96	-763.53
Accounts Payable	-	23.05	333.06	179.53	242.66	40.70	230.90	267.94	310.94	360.83
Capital Expenditure	-278.53	-217.45	-294	-628.43	-773.37	-635.40	-737.36	-855.67	-992.97	-1,152.30
UFCF	445.47	565.89	845.74	430.08	405.64	654.08	843.28	978.59	1,135.61	1,317.83
WACC
PV UFCF						615.20	746	814.25	888.73	970.03
SUM PV UFCF										4,034.21

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.32
Free cash flow (t + 1)	1,344.19
Terminal Value	31,115.42
Present Value of Terminal Value	22,903.44

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	26,937.65
Net Debt	4,270.16
Equity Value	22,667.49
Shares Outstanding	112.15
Equity Value Per Share	202.12