Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing ... (TSM)

$79.21

-2.19 (-2.69%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 6,764.75 | 79.21 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 977,442.601,031,361.801,069,988.801,339,238.501,587,4151,797,575.042,035,558.472,305,048.842,610,217.422,955,787.67
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 659,594.20693,087679,918.20918,288.401,090,323.711,206,103.251,365,780.911,546,598.521,751,354.821,983,219.08
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 399,451.50400,540.70393,034586,563.80667,928.80727,336.45823,629.52932,670.961,056,148.551,195,973.50
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 260,142.70292,546.30286,884.20331,724.60422,394.91478,766.80542,151.40613,927.56695,206.27787,245.58
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 656,577.20713,756594,463.70802,152.601,204,913.701,178,261.601,334,253.271,510,896.891,710,926.601,937,438.51
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 122,488.40129,262.80139,822.30146,089198,362.90221,233.71250,523.14283,690.24321,248.38363,778.90
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 73,880.70103,23182,981.21137,353.40193,102.30171,645.97194,370.41220,103.37249,243.16282,240.81
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 84,136.6076,114.60179,581.79196,792.30193,027.81214,362.93242,742.73274,879.77311,271.48352,481.14
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -335,888.50-322,682.20-469,752.10-521,474.50-849,436.40-726,228.75-822,375.17-931,250.54-1,054,540.08-1,194,152.08
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 79.21
Beta 1.152
Diluted Shares Outstanding 5,186.08
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 10.66
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.64%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.141
Total Debt 753,631.90
Total Equity 410,789.08
Total Capital 1,164,420.98
Debt Weighting 64.72
Equity Weighting 35.28
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 977,442.601,031,361.801,069,988.801,339,238.501,587,4151,797,575.042,035,558.472,305,048.842,610,217.422,955,787.67
EBITDA 659,594.20693,087679,918.20918,288.401,090,323.711,206,103.251,365,780.911,546,598.521,751,354.821,983,219.08
EBIT 399,451.50400,540.70393,034586,563.80667,928.80727,336.45823,629.52932,670.961,056,148.551,195,973.50
Tax Rate 12.91%8.68%9.21%12.66%10.66%10.82%10.82%10.82%10.82%10.82%
EBIAT 347,863.05365,790.23356,827.70512,331.49596,730.45648,612.84734,483.59831,722.88941,835.811,066,526.74
Depreciation 260,142.70292,546.30286,884.20331,724.60422,394.91478,766.80542,151.40613,927.56695,206.27787,245.58
Accounts Receivable --6,774.41-10,559.49-6,266.70-52,273.90-22,870.81-29,289.43-33,167.10-37,558.14-42,530.51
Inventories --29,350.3020,249.80-54,372.19-55,748.9021,456.34-22,724.44-25,732.96-29,139.79-32,997.64
Accounts Payable --8,021.99103,467.1917,210.50-3,764.4921,335.1228,379.8032,137.0436,391.7141,209.66
Capital Expenditure -335,888.50-322,682.20-469,752.10-521,474.50-849,436.40-726,228.75-822,375.17-931,250.54-1,054,540.08-1,194,152.08
UFCF 272,117.25291,507.63287,117.30279,153.2057,901.65421,071.55430,625.74487,636.87552,195.78625,301.74
WACC
PV UFCF 406,282.86400,908.42438,040.56478,611.87522,940.91
SUM PV UFCF 2,246,784.61

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.64
Free cash flow (t + 1) 637,807.77
Terminal Value 38,890,717.93
Present Value of Terminal Value 32,524,373.43

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 34,771,158.04
Net Debt -311,358.30
Equity Value 35,082,516.34
Shares Outstanding 5,186.08
Equity Value Per Share 6,764.75