Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

TotalEnergies SE (TTE)

$57.06

-1.10 (-1.89%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -6.46 | 57.06 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	184,106	176,249	119,704	184,634	263,310	303,138.20	348,990.81	401,779.08	462,552.08	532,517.59
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	19,601	19,511	-4,887	41,866	58,834	37,985.21	43,730.84	50,345.56	57,960.81	66,727.95
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	19,376	19,245	-5,050.48	41,613.85	58,474.40	37,571.22	43,254.23	49,796.86	57,329.12	66,000.70
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	225	266	163.48	252.15	359.60	413.99	476.61	548.70	631.70	727.25
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	31,516	31,199	35,898	33,657	41,772	59,962.11	69,031.96	79,473.72	91,494.89	105,334.39
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	31,093	34,253	14,068	21,983	24,378	41,978.55	48,328.21	55,638.32	64,054.16	73,742.98
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	14,880	17,132	14,730	19,952	22,936	30,086.39	34,637.25	39,876.48	45,908.18	52,852.24
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	26,134	28,394	23,574	36,837	41,346	51,929.14	59,783.93	68,826.84	79,237.57	91,223.02
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-17,080	-11,810	-10,764	-12,343	-15,690	-22,804.52	-26,253.93	-30,225.09	-34,796.93	-40,060.30
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 57.06
Beta	0.942
Diluted Shares Outstanding	2,594.94
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	52.58
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.86%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.852
Total Debt	60,766
Total Equity	148,067.45
Total Capital	208,833.45
Debt Weighting	29.10
Equity Weighting	70.90
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	184,106	176,249	119,704	184,634	263,310	303,138.20	348,990.81	401,779.08	462,552.08	532,517.59
EBITDA	19,601	19,511	-4,887	41,866	58,834	37,985.21	43,730.84	50,345.56	57,960.81	66,727.95
EBIT	19,376	19,245	-5,050.48	41,613.85	58,474.40	37,571.22	43,254.23	49,796.86	57,329.12	66,000.70
Tax Rate	36.64%	34.91%	-3.19%	38.23%	52.58%	31.83%	31.83%	31.83%	31.83%	31.83%
EBIAT	12,275.97	12,526.48	-5,211.68	25,706.21	27,728.26	25,610.84	29,484.73	33,944.59	39,079.04	44,990.12
Depreciation	225	266	163.48	252.15	359.60	413.99	476.61	548.70	631.70	727.25
Accounts Receivable	-	-3,160	20,185	-7,915	-2,395	-17,600.54	-6,349.66	-7,310.11	-8,415.84	-9,688.82
Inventories	-	-2,252	2,402	-5,222	-2,984	-7,150.39	-4,550.86	-5,239.22	-6,031.71	-6,944.06
Accounts Payable	-	2,260	-4,820	13,263	4,509	10,583.14	7,854.79	9,042.90	10,410.73	11,985.45
Capital Expenditure	-17,080	-11,810	-10,764	-12,343	-15,690	-22,804.52	-26,253.93	-30,225.09	-34,796.93	-40,060.30
UFCF	-4,579.03	-2,169.52	1,954.80	13,741.36	11,527.86	-10,947.48	661.68	761.77	876.99	1,009.64
WACC
PV UFCF						-10,317.11	587.67	637.61	691.78	750.56
SUM PV UFCF										-7,649.48

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.11
Free cash flow (t + 1)	1,029.84
Terminal Value	25,056.88
Present Value of Terminal Value	18,627.11

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	10,977.63
Net Debt	27,740
Equity Value	-16,762.37
Shares Outstanding	2,594.94
Equity Value Per Share	-6.46