Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

TUI AG (TUI1.DE)

2.025 €

-0.02 (-1.07%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -23.99 | 2.025 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	19,523.90	18,928.10	7,943.70	4,731.60	16,544.90	22,672.65	31,069.95	42,577.37	58,346.80	79,956.78
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	1,525.20	1,252.90	-1,333.50	-973.90	1,157.20	-723	-990.77	-1,357.73	-1,860.59	-2,549.70
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	1,086.30	743.30	-2,907	-1,986.30	273.70	-3,057.60	-4,190.05	-5,741.92	-7,868.57	-10,782.86
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	438.90	509.60	1,573.50	1,012.40	883.50	2,334.61	3,199.28	4,384.20	6,007.97	8,233.16
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	2,548	1,490.50	924	1,087	1,822.70	3,017.59	4,135.22	5,666.79	7,765.60	10,641.76
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	118.50	114.70	73.20	42.80	56.10	153.18	209.91	287.66	394.20	540.20
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	2,937.30	2,873.90	1,611.50	2,052.40	3,316.50	5,166.48	7,079.99	9,702.22	13,295.64	18,219.96
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-956.20	-987	-587	-299.70	-515.70	-1,222.17	-1,674.83	-2,295.14	-3,145.19	-4,310.08
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 2.025
Beta	2.115
Diluted Shares Outstanding	1,123.82
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-90.06
After-tax Cost of Debt	9.37%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	13.514
Total Debt	5,170.60
Total Equity	2,275.74
Total Capital	7,446.34
Debt Weighting	69.44
Equity Weighting	30.56
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	19,523.90	18,928.10	7,943.70	4,731.60	16,544.90	22,672.65	31,069.95	42,577.37	58,346.80	79,956.78
EBITDA	1,525.20	1,252.90	-1,333.50	-973.90	1,157.20	-723	-990.77	-1,357.73	-1,860.59	-2,549.70
EBIT	1,086.30	743.30	-2,907	-1,986.30	273.70	-3,057.60	-4,190.05	-5,741.92	-7,868.57	-10,782.86
Tax Rate	24.60%	39.80%	1.71%	-0.22%	-90.06%	-4.83%	-4.83%	-4.83%	-4.83%	-4.83%
EBIAT	819.06	447.44	-2,857.18	-1,990.74	520.20	-3,205.39	-4,392.57	-6,019.45	-8,248.88	-11,304.03
Depreciation	438.90	509.60	1,573.50	1,012.40	883.50	2,334.61	3,199.28	4,384.20	6,007.97	8,233.16
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories	-	3.80	41.50	30.40	-13.30	-97.08	-56.73	-77.75	-106.54	-146
Accounts Payable	-	-63.40	-1,262.40	440.90	1,264.10	1,849.98	1,913.51	2,622.22	3,593.42	4,924.32
Capital Expenditure	-956.20	-987	-587	-299.70	-515.70	-1,222.17	-1,674.83	-2,295.14	-3,145.19	-4,310.08
UFCF	301.76	-89.56	-3,091.58	-806.74	2,138.80	-340.06	-1,011.34	-1,385.91	-1,899.22	-2,602.63
WACC
PV UFCF						-307.35	-826.18	-1,023.29	-1,267.44	-1,569.83
SUM PV UFCF										-4,994.09

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	10.64
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-2,654.68
Terminal Value	-30,725.51
Present Value of Terminal Value	-18,532.68

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-23,526.77
Net Debt	3,433.70
Equity Value	-26,960.47
Shares Outstanding	1,123.82
Equity Value Per Share	-23.99