Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

TUI AG (TUI1.DE)

2.025 €

-0.02 (-1.07%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -23.99 | 2.025 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 19,523.9018,928.107,943.704,731.6016,544.9022,672.6531,069.9542,577.3758,346.8079,956.78
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,525.201,252.90-1,333.50-973.901,157.20-723-990.77-1,357.73-1,860.59-2,549.70
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,086.30743.30-2,907-1,986.30273.70-3,057.60-4,190.05-5,741.92-7,868.57-10,782.86
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 438.90509.601,573.501,012.40883.502,334.613,199.284,384.206,007.978,233.16
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 2,5481,490.509241,0871,822.703,017.594,135.225,666.797,765.6010,641.76
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 118.50114.7073.2042.8056.10153.18209.91287.66394.20540.20
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2,937.302,873.901,611.502,052.403,316.505,166.487,079.999,702.2213,295.6418,219.96
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -956.20-987-587-299.70-515.70-1,222.17-1,674.83-2,295.14-3,145.19-4,310.08
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.025
Beta 2.115
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,123.82
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -90.06
After-tax Cost of Debt 9.37%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.514
Total Debt 5,170.60
Total Equity 2,275.74
Total Capital 7,446.34
Debt Weighting 69.44
Equity Weighting 30.56
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 19,523.9018,928.107,943.704,731.6016,544.9022,672.6531,069.9542,577.3758,346.8079,956.78
EBITDA 1,525.201,252.90-1,333.50-973.901,157.20-723-990.77-1,357.73-1,860.59-2,549.70
EBIT 1,086.30743.30-2,907-1,986.30273.70-3,057.60-4,190.05-5,741.92-7,868.57-10,782.86
Tax Rate 24.60%39.80%1.71%-0.22%-90.06%-4.83%-4.83%-4.83%-4.83%-4.83%
EBIAT 819.06447.44-2,857.18-1,990.74520.20-3,205.39-4,392.57-6,019.45-8,248.88-11,304.03
Depreciation 438.90509.601,573.501,012.40883.502,334.613,199.284,384.206,007.978,233.16
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories -3.8041.5030.40-13.30-97.08-56.73-77.75-106.54-146
Accounts Payable --63.40-1,262.40440.901,264.101,849.981,913.512,622.223,593.424,924.32
Capital Expenditure -956.20-987-587-299.70-515.70-1,222.17-1,674.83-2,295.14-3,145.19-4,310.08
UFCF 301.76-89.56-3,091.58-806.742,138.80-340.06-1,011.34-1,385.91-1,899.22-2,602.63
WACC
PV UFCF -307.35-826.18-1,023.29-1,267.44-1,569.83
SUM PV UFCF -4,994.09

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.64
Free cash flow (t + 1) -2,654.68
Terminal Value -30,725.51
Present Value of Terminal Value -18,532.68

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -23,526.77
Net Debt 3,433.70
Equity Value -26,960.47
Shares Outstanding 1,123.82
Equity Value Per Share -23.99