Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Titan International, Inc. (TWI)

$14.41

-0.50 (-3.35%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -5.14 | 14.41 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,468.921,602.411,448.671,259.311,780.221,903.882,036.132,177.572,328.842,490.61
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 39.83110.9242.5631.77130.9585.4991.4297.77104.57111.83
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -18.6153.31-11.81-22.8982.9615.5616.6417.8019.0320.36
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 58.4457.6254.3854.6647.9969.9274.7879.9885.5391.47
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 155.9681.6966.80117.4398.11133.89143.19153.14163.77175.15
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 235.90252.98200.93204.67279.65295.78316.33338.30361.80386.93
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 339.84395.74333.36293.68392.62442.53473.27506.14541.30578.90
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 196.95212.13158.65167.21278.10253.20270.79289.60309.72331.24
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -32.63-39-36.41-21.68-38.80-42.15-45.08-48.21-51.56-55.14
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 14.41
Beta 2.413
Diluted Shares Outstanding 60.82
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 2.85
After-tax Cost of Debt 6.23%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.409
Total Debt 502.48
Total Equity 876.39
Total Capital 1,378.87
Debt Weighting 36.44
Equity Weighting 63.56
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,468.921,602.411,448.671,259.311,780.221,903.882,036.132,177.572,328.842,490.61
EBITDA 39.83110.9242.5631.77130.9585.4991.4297.77104.57111.83
EBIT -18.6153.31-11.81-22.8982.9615.5616.6417.8019.0320.36
Tax Rate -13.55%18.78%-0.79%-3.88%2.85%0.68%0.68%0.68%0.68%0.68%
EBIAT -21.1343.29-11.91-23.7880.5915.4516.5317.6818.9020.22
Depreciation 58.4457.6254.3854.6647.9969.9274.7879.9885.5391.47
Accounts Receivable --17.0852.06-3.74-74.99-16.13-20.55-21.97-23.50-25.13
Inventories --55.9062.3839.68-98.94-49.91-30.74-32.88-35.16-37.60
Accounts Payable -15.18-53.488.56110.89-24.9017.5918.8120.1221.51
Capital Expenditure -32.63-39-36.41-21.68-38.80-42.15-45.08-48.21-51.56-55.14
UFCF 4.694.1167.0153.7026.75-47.7112.5313.4014.3415.33
WACC
PV UFCF -42.8110.099.699.308.92
SUM PV UFCF -4.81

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.43
Free cash flow (t + 1) 15.64
Terminal Value 165.84
Present Value of Terminal Value 96.53

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 91.72
Net Debt 404.38
Equity Value -312.65
Shares Outstanding 60.82
Equity Value Per Share -5.14