Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Hostess Brands, Inc. (TWNKW)

$3.2

+0.94 (+41.59%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: - | 3.2 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 776.19850.39907.671,016.611,142.041,258.051,385.861,526.641,681.731,852.58
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 234.04156.66163.21186.53251.26268.98296.31326.41359.57396.10
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 195.87115.25119.88131.59199.57207.36228.43251.63277.19305.35
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 38.1741.4143.3354.9451.6861.6267.8874.7882.3790.74
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 135.70146.38285.09173.03249.16264.05290.87320.42352.97388.83
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 101.01105.68104.90125.55148.18156.81172.74190.29209.62230.92
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 34.3438.5847.6149.3552.8159.5965.6572.3279.6687.76
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 49.9965.2968.5761.4368.1084.7493.35102.83113.27124.78
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -35.29-48.42-40.48-58.25-65.43-65.82-72.51-79.88-87.99-96.93
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.2
Beta 0.692
Diluted Shares Outstanding -
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 25.35
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.66%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.359
Total Debt 1,114.14
Total Equity -
Total Capital -
Debt Weighting -
Equity Weighting -
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 776.19850.39907.671,016.611,142.041,258.051,385.861,526.641,681.731,852.58
EBITDA 234.04156.66163.21186.53251.26268.98296.31326.41359.57396.10
EBIT 195.87115.25119.88131.59199.57207.36228.43251.63277.19305.35
Tax Rate -17.28%33.36%33.18%22.99%25.35%19.52%19.52%19.52%19.52%19.52%
EBIAT 229.7276.8080.10101.34148.98166.89183.84202.51223.09245.75
Depreciation 38.1741.4143.3354.9451.6861.6267.8874.7882.3790.74
Accounts Receivable --4.670.78-20.65-22.63-8.63-15.93-17.55-19.33-21.30
Inventories --4.23-9.03-1.74-3.46-6.78-6.05-6.67-7.35-8.09
Accounts Payable -15.303.28-7.146.6816.638.619.4810.4511.51
Capital Expenditure -35.29-48.42-40.48-58.25-65.42-65.82-72.51-79.88-87.99-96.93
UFCF 232.5976.1977.9868.50115.82163.91165.84182.68201.24221.68
WACC
PV UFCF -----
SUM PV UFCF -

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) -
Free cash flow (t + 1) 226.12
Terminal Value -
Present Value of Terminal Value -

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -
Net Debt 864.99
Equity Value -
Shares Outstanding -
Equity Value Per Share -