Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)

$148.54

-5.11 (-3.33%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 157.81 | 148.54 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 14,96115,78414,38314,46118,34419,445.5020,613.1421,850.8923,162.9724,553.83
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 7,0627,7656,9487,19910,0579,695.9810,278.2010,895.3711,549.6012,243.12
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 6,1586,8115,8986,2079,1038,472.978,981.759,521.0710,092.7810,698.82
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 9049541,0509929541,223.011,296.451,374.301,456.821,544.30
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 4,4694,2335,3876,5689,7397,492.467,942.368,419.278,924.839,460.73
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,2781,2071,0741,4141,7011,660.921,760.661,866.381,978.452,097.25
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,9572,2172,0011,9551,9102,526.752,678.472,839.313,009.803,190.53
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 466478388415653593.88629.54667.34707.41749.89
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -695-1,131-847-649-2,462-1,384.87-1,468.03-1,556.18-1,649.62-1,748.68
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 148.54
Beta 0.939
Diluted Shares Outstanding 933
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 12.89
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.97%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.320
Total Debt 8,124
Total Equity 138,587.82
Total Capital 146,711.82
Debt Weighting 5.54
Equity Weighting 94.46
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 14,96115,78414,38314,46118,34419,445.5020,613.1421,850.8923,162.9724,553.83
EBITDA 7,0627,7656,9487,19910,0579,695.9810,278.2010,895.3711,549.6012,243.12
EBIT 6,1586,8115,8986,2079,1038,472.978,981.759,521.0710,092.7810,698.82
Tax Rate 39.44%16.54%12.41%7.01%12.89%17.66%17.66%17.66%17.66%17.66%
EBIAT 3,729.245,684.325,165.905,771.677,929.286,976.607,395.527,839.608,310.348,809.35
Depreciation 9049541,0509929541,223.011,296.451,374.301,456.821,544.30
Accounts Receivable -71133-340-28740.08-99.73-105.72-112.07-118.80
Inventories --2602164645-616.75-151.72-160.83-170.49-180.73
Accounts Payable -12-9027238-59.1235.6637.8040.0742.48
Capital Expenditure -695-1,131-847-649-2,462-1,384.87-1,468.03-1,556.18-1,649.62-1,748.68
UFCF 3,938.245,330.325,627.905,847.676,417.286,178.947,008.157,428.967,875.058,347.92
WACC
PV UFCF 5,773.636,118.906,060.856,003.355,946.39
SUM PV UFCF 29,903.13

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.02
Free cash flow (t + 1) 8,514.88
Terminal Value 169,619.14
Present Value of Terminal Value 120,823.14

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 150,726.26
Net Debt 3,493
Equity Value 147,233.26
Shares Outstanding 933
Equity Value Per Share 157.81