Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. (UCTT)

$25.75

-0.83 (-3.12%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -74.34 | 25.75 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 924.351,096.521,066.201,398.602,101.622,612.853,248.444,038.645,021.076,242.48
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 101.2570.8367.80158.60242.44243.77303.07376.79468.45582.40
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 90.5449.7226.20113.80171.56172.90214.96267.25332.26413.08
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 10.7121.1141.6044.8070.8870.8788.11109.54136.19169.32
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 68.31144.14162.50200.30466.46377.78469.68583.93725.97902.57
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 90.21106.96112.70145.50250.15273.77340.37423.17526.11654.08
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 236.84186.12172.40180.40379.24468.79582.83724.60900.871,120.01
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 173.5299.01133.10121.30332.90338.62420.99523.39650.71809
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -16.15-26.15-26.30-36.40-59.34-62.84-78.12-97.13-120.76-150.13
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 25.75
Beta 1.979
Diluted Shares Outstanding 41.07
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.60
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.95%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.144
Total Debt 635.21
Total Equity 1,057.66
Total Capital 1,692.87
Debt Weighting 37.52
Equity Weighting 62.48
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 924.351,096.521,066.201,398.602,101.622,612.853,248.444,038.645,021.076,242.48
EBITDA 101.2570.8367.80158.60242.44243.77303.07376.79468.45582.40
EBIT 90.5449.7226.20113.80171.56172.90214.96267.25332.26413.08
Tax Rate 13.64%29.98%508.70%22.17%22.60%119.42%119.42%119.42%119.42%119.42%
EBIAT 78.1934.81-107.0888.57132.79-33.57-41.74-51.89-64.51-80.20
Depreciation 10.7121.1141.6044.8070.8870.8788.11109.54136.19169.32
Accounts Receivable --16.74-5.74-32.80-104.65-23.63-66.60-82.80-102.94-127.98
Inventories -50.7213.72-8-198.83-89.56-114.04-141.78-176.26-219.14
Accounts Payable --74.5134.09-11.80211.605.7282.37102.41127.32158.29
Capital Expenditure -16.15-26.15-26.30-36.40-59.34-62.84-78.12-97.13-120.76-150.13
UFCF 72.76-10.76-49.7244.3752.44-133-130.01-161.64-200.96-249.85
WACC
PV UFCF -121.66-108.79-123.72-140.71-160.02
SUM PV UFCF -654.90

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.32
Free cash flow (t + 1) -254.84
Terminal Value -3,481.47
Present Value of Terminal Value -2,229.79

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -2,884.70
Net Debt 168.76
Equity Value -3,053.45
Shares Outstanding 41.07
Equity Value Per Share -74.34