Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. (UCTT)

$44.83

+1.63 (+3.77%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -7.85 | 44.83 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 1,066.241,398.582,101.622,374.301,734.502,027.042,368.932,768.483,235.413,781.10
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 73.27163.16249.38271.90100.80193.25225.84263.93308.45360.47
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 29.91116.52178.50199.6035.20121.89142.45166.48194.55227.37
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 43.3646.6470.8872.3065.6071.3583.3997.45113.89133.10
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 162.53200.27466.46358.80307342.85400.68468.26547.24639.53
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 112.69145.54250.15253.70180.80218.87255.78298.92349.34408.26
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 172.42180.38379.23443.90374.50354.33414.09483.93565.55660.94
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 133.06121.33332.90253.50192.90238.35278.55325.53380.44444.60
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -26.31-36.43-59.34-100.10-75.80-66.82-78.09-91.26-106.65-124.64
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 44.83
Beta 2.001
Diluted Shares Outstanding 44.70
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -175.22
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.63%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.604
Total Debt 639.90
Total Equity 2,003.90
Total Capital 2,643.80
Debt Weighting 24.20
Equity Weighting 75.80
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 1,066.241,398.582,101.622,374.301,734.502,027.042,368.932,768.483,235.413,781.10
EBITDA 73.27163.16249.38271.90100.80193.25225.84263.93308.45360.47
EBIT 29.91116.52178.50199.6035.20121.89142.45166.48194.55227.37
Tax Rate 415.88%22.14%22.56%54.25%-175.22%67.92%67.92%67.92%67.92%67.92%
EBIAT -94.4990.72138.2391.3296.8839.1045.7053.4062.4172.94
Depreciation 43.3646.6470.8872.3065.6071.3583.3997.45113.89133.10
Accounts Receivable --32.84-104.61-3.5572.90-38.07-36.91-43.14-50.42-58.92
Inventories --7.96-198.85-64.6769.4020.17-59.76-69.84-81.62-95.39
Accounts Payable --11.73211.57-79.40-60.6045.4540.2046.9854.9064.16
Capital Expenditure -26.31-36.43-59.34-100.10-75.80-66.82-78.09-91.26-106.65-124.64
UFCF -77.4448.3957.87-84.09168.3871.19-5.48-6.40-7.49-8.75
WACC
PV UFCF 63.47-4.36-4.54-4.73-4.93
SUM PV UFCF 44.92

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.16
Free cash flow (t + 1) -9.10
Terminal Value -111.49
Present Value of Terminal Value -62.81

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -17.90
Net Debt 332.90
Equity Value -350.80
Shares Outstanding 44.70
Equity Value Per Share -7.85