Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. (UCTT)

$34.37

-0.72 (-2.05%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -63.70 | 34.37 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 924.351,096.521,066.201,398.602,101.602,612.823,248.404,038.595,020.996,242.37
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 95.2064.5967.80158.60239.10236.54294.08365.62454.56565.13
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 84.4943.4826.20113.80171.60166.51207.02257.38319.98397.82
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 10.7121.1141.6044.8067.5070.0387.07108.24134.58167.31
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 68.31144.14162.50200.30466.50377.79469.69583.94725.99902.59
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 90.21106.96112.70145.50250.10273.76340.35423.14526.08654.05
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 236.84186.12172.40180.40379.20468.78582.81724.58900.841,119.97
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 173.5299.01133.10121.30332.90338.61420.98523.39650.71808.99
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -16.15-26.15-26.30-36.40-59.30-62.83-78.11-97.11-120.73-150.10
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 34.37
Beta 1.959
Diluted Shares Outstanding 44.35
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.55
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.95%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.760
Total Debt 635.20
Total Equity 1,524.34
Total Capital 2,159.54
Debt Weighting 29.41
Equity Weighting 70.59
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 924.351,096.521,066.201,398.602,101.602,612.823,248.404,038.595,020.996,242.37
EBITDA 95.2064.5967.80158.60239.10236.54294.08365.62454.56565.13
EBIT 84.4943.4826.20113.80171.60166.51207.02257.38319.98397.82
Tax Rate 13.64%29.98%508.70%22.17%22.55%119.41%119.41%119.41%119.41%119.41%
EBIAT 72.9630.44-107.0888.57132.90-32.32-40.18-49.95-62.10-77.21
Depreciation 10.7121.1141.6044.8067.5070.0387.07108.24134.58167.31
Accounts Receivable --16.74-5.74-32.80-104.60-23.66-66.59-82.79-102.93-127.97
Inventories -50.7213.72-8-198.80-89.58-114.03-141.77-176.26-219.13
Accounts Payable --74.5134.09-11.80211.605.7182.37102.41127.32158.29
Capital Expenditure -16.15-26.15-26.30-36.40-59.30-62.83-78.11-97.11-120.73-150.10
UFCF 67.53-15.12-49.7244.3749.30-132.64-129.48-160.97-200.13-248.82
WACC
PV UFCF -120.72-107.26-121.37-137.34-155.41
SUM PV UFCF -642.11

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.87
Free cash flow (t + 1) -253.79
Terminal Value -3,224.80
Present Value of Terminal Value -2,014.22

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -2,656.33
Net Debt 168.70
Equity Value -2,825.03
Shares Outstanding 44.35
Equity Value Per Share -63.70