Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Udemy, Inc. (UDMY)

$8.61

+0.03 (+0.35%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -195.93 | 8.61 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 276.33429.90518.16629.10833.591,104.551,463.591,939.342,569.73
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -59.59-63.42-61.05-126.08-142-188.15-249.31-330.36-437.74
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -68.33-74.47-76.34-147.29-167.13-221.45-293.44-388.82-515.21
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 8.7411.0515.3021.2225.1333.3044.1258.4777.47
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 49.43175.03533.87465.37491.01650.61862.091,142.321,513.64
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 26.8146.2673.18104.53106.70141.38187.34248.24328.93
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ---------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 16.3223.7134.6314.5342.5456.3774.7098.98131.15
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -11.12-14.54-18.20-15.72-27.96-37.05-49.10-65.06-86.21
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 8.61
Beta 0.000
Diluted Shares Outstanding 140.87
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -1.51
After-tax Cost of Debt 31.72%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 3.560
Total Debt 13.55
Total Equity 1,212.92
Total Capital 1,226.47
Debt Weighting 1.10
Equity Weighting 98.90
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 276.33429.90518.16629.10833.591,104.551,463.591,939.342,569.73
EBITDA -59.59-63.42-61.05-126.08-142-188.15-249.31-330.36-437.74
EBIT -68.33-74.47-76.34-147.29-167.13-221.45-293.44-388.82-515.21
Tax Rate -2.01%-4.23%-1.55%-1.51%-2.32%-2.32%-2.32%-2.32%-2.32%
EBIAT -69.70-77.62-77.53-149.51-171.01-226.60-300.26-397.86-527.19
Depreciation 8.7411.0515.3021.2225.1333.3044.1258.4777.47
Accounts Receivable --19.45-26.92-31.35-2.17-34.68-45.96-60.90-80.69
Inventories ---------
Accounts Payable -7.3910.92-20.1028.0113.8318.3224.2832.17
Capital Expenditure -11.12-14.54-18.20-15.72-27.96-37.05-49.10-65.06-86.21
UFCF -72.08-93.17-96.44-195.47-148-251.21-332.87-441.07-584.44
WACC
PV UFCF -148-241.85-308.53-393.58-502.09
SUM PV UFCF -1,534.66

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.87
Free cash flow (t + 1) -596.13
Terminal Value -31,878.51
Present Value of Terminal Value -26,366.19

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -27,900.84
Net Debt -300.14
Equity Value -27,600.70
Shares Outstanding 140.87
Equity Value Per Share -195.93