Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

United Fire Group, Inc. (UFCS)

$29.87

+0.12 (+0.40%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -30.85 | 29.87 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,055.551,080.281,200.051,078.261,056.491,059.831,063.171,066.531,069.891,073.27
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 26.3821.4228.07-162.86106.603.833.843.853.873.88
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 21.8016.2416.88-169.52100.03-2.71-2.72-2.72-2.73-2.74
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4.575.1711.196.666.576.546.566.586.606.62
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 95.7464.63120.9088.12132.3897.1497.4597.7698.0798.37
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 397.74423.20449.19544.03476.96444.89446.29447.70449.11450.53
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable ----------
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -17.16-33.05-32.43-18.86-13.98-22.17-22.24-22.31-22.38-22.45
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 29.87
Beta 0.025
Diluted Shares Outstanding 25.52
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.78
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.30%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 3.831
Total Debt 50
Total Equity 762.27
Total Capital 812.27
Debt Weighting 6.16
Equity Weighting 93.84
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,055.551,080.281,200.051,078.261,056.491,059.831,063.171,066.531,069.891,073.27
EBITDA 26.3821.4228.07-162.86106.603.833.843.853.873.88
EBIT 21.8016.2416.88-169.52100.03-2.71-2.72-2.72-2.73-2.74
Tax Rate -226.03%402.19%12.20%33.51%16.78%47.73%47.73%47.73%47.73%47.73%
EBIAT 71.08-49.0914.82-112.7183.25-1.42-1.42-1.42-1.43-1.43
Depreciation 4.575.1711.196.666.576.546.566.586.606.62
Accounts Receivable --25.46-25.99-94.8367.0632.08-1.40-1.41-1.41-1.42
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable ----------
Capital Expenditure -17.16-33.05-32.43-18.86-13.98-22.17-22.24-22.31-22.38-22.45
UFCF 58.50-102.43-32.41-219.75142.9015.03-18.51-18.56-18.62-18.68
WACC
PV UFCF 14.46-17.14-16.54-15.97-15.41
SUM PV UFCF -50.60

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.92
Free cash flow (t + 1) -19.06
Terminal Value -992.48
Present Value of Terminal Value -818.89

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -869.49
Net Debt -82.10
Equity Value -787.38
Shares Outstanding 25.52
Equity Value Per Share -30.85