Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

UMH Properties, Inc. (UMH)

$16.18

+0.03 (+0.19%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -38.39 | 16.18 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 112.65129.59146.59163.61186.10211239.22271.23307.52348.66
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 56.1011.5182.3765.05115.3791.42103.65117.51133.23151.06
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 28.55-20.1845.5623.3470.2539.1944.4350.3757.1164.75
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 27.5631.6936.8141.7145.1252.2359.2267.1476.1286.31
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 156.217.4312.90118.51229.92147.35167.07189.42214.76243.49
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 25.4531.493846.4155.3655.2562.6471.0280.5391.30
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 17.5723.7031.9725.4523.6635.4340.1745.5551.6458.55
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2.963.874.574.394.275.796.567.448.449.56
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -65.89-75.80-85.75-95.70-108.85-123.42-139.93-158.65-179.88-203.94
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 16.18
Beta 1.244
Diluted Shares Outstanding 41.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.00
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.84%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.523
Total Debt 499.32
Total Equity 669.77
Total Capital 1,169.10
Debt Weighting 42.71
Equity Weighting 57.29
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 112.65129.59146.59163.61186.10211239.22271.23307.52348.66
EBITDA 56.1011.5182.3765.05115.3791.42103.65117.51133.23151.06
EBIT 28.55-20.1845.5623.3470.2539.1944.4350.3757.1164.75
Tax Rate 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
EBIAT 28.55-20.1845.5623.3470.2539.1944.4350.3757.1164.75
Depreciation 27.5631.6936.8141.7145.1252.2359.2267.1476.1286.31
Accounts Receivable --6.04-6.50-8.42-8.950.11-7.39-8.38-9.50-10.77
Inventories --6.13-8.266.521.79-11.77-4.74-5.37-6.09-6.91
Accounts Payable -0.910.70-0.18-0.121.510.770.8811.13
Capital Expenditure -65.89-75.80-85.75-95.70-108.85-123.42-139.93-158.65-179.88-203.94
UFCF -9.79-75.55-17.45-32.73-0.75-42.15-47.64-54.01-61.24-69.43
WACC
PV UFCF -39.36-41.53-43.97-46.55-49.28
SUM PV UFCF -220.68

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.10
Free cash flow (t + 1) -70.82
Terminal Value -1,388.69
Present Value of Terminal Value -985.50

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,206.19
Net Debt 383.15
Equity Value -1,589.33
Shares Outstanding 41.40
Equity Value Per Share -38.39