Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
UMH Properties, Inc. (UMH)
$19.53
+0.04 (+0.21%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 129.59 | 146.59 | 163.61 | 186.10 | 209.97 | 236.90 | 267.28 | 301.56 | 340.24 | 383.88 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 11.51 | 82.37 | 65.05 | 115.37 | 87.57 | 98.80 | 111.47 | 125.77 | 141.90 | 160.10 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -20.18 | 45.56 | 23.34 | 70.25 | 35.44 | 39.99 | 45.12 | 50.90 | 57.43 | 64.80 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 31.69 | 36.81 | 41.71 | 45.12 | 52.13 | 58.81 | 66.36 | 74.87 | 84.47 | 95.30 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 7.43 | 12.90 | 118.51 | 229.92 | 322.74 | 172.57 | 194.70 | 219.68 | 247.85 | 279.64 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 31.49 | 38 | 46.41 | 55.36 | 59.66 | 64.79 | 73.10 | 82.48 | 93.06 | 104.99 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 23.70 | 31.97 | 25.45 | 23.66 | 45.99 | 42.77 | 48.26 | 54.44 | 61.43 | 69.31 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 3.87 | 4.57 | 4.39 | 4.27 | 4.57 | 6.29 | 7.09 | 8 | 9.03 | 10.18 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 19.53 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.213 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 41.40 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.00 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.00% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.612 |
| Total Debt | - |
| Total Equity | 808.44 |
| Total Capital | 808.44 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.00 |
| Equity Weighting | 100.00 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 129.59 | 146.59 | 163.61 | 186.10 | 209.97 | 236.90 | 267.28 | 301.56 | 340.24 | 383.88 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 11.51 | 82.37 | 65.05 | 115.37 | 87.57 | 98.80 | 111.47 | 125.77 | 141.90 | 160.10 |
| EBIT | -20.18 | 45.56 | 23.34 | 70.25 | 35.44 | 39.99 | 45.12 | 50.90 | 57.43 | 64.80 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| EBIAT | -20.18 | 45.56 | 23.34 | 70.25 | 35.44 | 39.99 | 45.12 | 50.90 | 57.43 | 64.80 |
| Depreciation | 31.69 | 36.81 | 41.71 | 45.12 | 52.13 | 58.81 | 66.36 | 74.87 | 84.47 | 95.30 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -6.50 | -8.42 | -8.95 | -4.30 | -5.13 | -8.31 | -9.38 | -10.58 | -11.94 |
| Inventories | - | -8.26 | 6.52 | 1.79 | -22.33 | 3.22 | -5.49 | -6.19 | -6.98 | -7.88 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.70 | -0.18 | -0.12 | 0.30 | 1.71 | 0.81 | 0.91 | 1.03 | 1.16 |
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| SUM PV UFCF | - |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.61 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | - |
| Terminal Value | - |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | - |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | - |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -275.81 |
| Equity Value | - |
| Shares Outstanding | 41.40 |
| Equity Value Per Share | - |