Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
UMH Properties, Inc. (UMH)
$16.18
+0.03 (+0.19%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 112.65 | 129.59 | 146.59 | 163.61 | 186.10 | 211 | 239.22 | 271.23 | 307.52 | 348.66 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 56.10 | 11.51 | 82.37 | 65.05 | 115.37 | 91.42 | 103.65 | 117.51 | 133.23 | 151.06 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 28.55 | -20.18 | 45.56 | 23.34 | 70.25 | 39.19 | 44.43 | 50.37 | 57.11 | 64.75 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 27.56 | 31.69 | 36.81 | 41.71 | 45.12 | 52.23 | 59.22 | 67.14 | 76.12 | 86.31 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 156.21 | 7.43 | 12.90 | 118.51 | 229.92 | 147.35 | 167.07 | 189.42 | 214.76 | 243.49 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 25.45 | 31.49 | 38 | 46.41 | 55.36 | 55.25 | 62.64 | 71.02 | 80.53 | 91.30 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 17.57 | 23.70 | 31.97 | 25.45 | 23.66 | 35.43 | 40.17 | 45.55 | 51.64 | 58.55 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 2.96 | 3.87 | 4.57 | 4.39 | 4.27 | 5.79 | 6.56 | 7.44 | 8.44 | 9.56 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -65.89 | -75.80 | -85.75 | -95.70 | -108.85 | -123.42 | -139.93 | -158.65 | -179.88 | -203.94 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 16.18 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.244 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 41.40 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.00 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.84% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.523 |
| Total Debt | 499.32 |
| Total Equity | 669.77 |
| Total Capital | 1,169.10 |
| Debt Weighting | 42.71 |
| Equity Weighting | 57.29 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 112.65 | 129.59 | 146.59 | 163.61 | 186.10 | 211 | 239.22 | 271.23 | 307.52 | 348.66 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 56.10 | 11.51 | 82.37 | 65.05 | 115.37 | 91.42 | 103.65 | 117.51 | 133.23 | 151.06 |
| EBIT | 28.55 | -20.18 | 45.56 | 23.34 | 70.25 | 39.19 | 44.43 | 50.37 | 57.11 | 64.75 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| EBIAT | 28.55 | -20.18 | 45.56 | 23.34 | 70.25 | 39.19 | 44.43 | 50.37 | 57.11 | 64.75 |
| Depreciation | 27.56 | 31.69 | 36.81 | 41.71 | 45.12 | 52.23 | 59.22 | 67.14 | 76.12 | 86.31 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -6.04 | -6.50 | -8.42 | -8.95 | 0.11 | -7.39 | -8.38 | -9.50 | -10.77 |
| Inventories | - | -6.13 | -8.26 | 6.52 | 1.79 | -11.77 | -4.74 | -5.37 | -6.09 | -6.91 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.91 | 0.70 | -0.18 | -0.12 | 1.51 | 0.77 | 0.88 | 1 | 1.13 |
| Capital Expenditure | -65.89 | -75.80 | -85.75 | -95.70 | -108.85 | -123.42 | -139.93 | -158.65 | -179.88 | -203.94 |
| UFCF | -9.79 | -75.55 | -17.45 | -32.73 | -0.75 | -42.15 | -47.64 | -54.01 | -61.24 | -69.43 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -39.36 | -41.53 | -43.97 | -46.55 | -49.28 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -220.68 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.10 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -70.82 |
| Terminal Value | -1,388.69 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -985.50 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -1,206.19 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 383.15 |
| Equity Value | -1,589.33 |
| Shares Outstanding | 41.40 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -38.39 |