Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN)

$26.37

-0.14 (-0.53%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 3.38 | 26.37 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	3,950.62	3,983.79	3,449.75	4,548.76	4,795.24	5,091.48	5,406.01	5,739.98	6,094.57	6,471.07
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	503.54	351.98	110.69	511.41	323.62	435.64	462.55	491.13	521.47	553.68
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	385.55	239.72	6.92	405.74	221.28	300.51	319.08	338.79	359.72	381.94
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	117.99	112.26	103.77	105.67	102.34	135.12	143.47	152.34	161.75	171.74
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Total Cash	637.49	433.29	570.33	445.99	639.57	679.08	721.03	765.57	812.87	863.08
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	80.46	88.29	89.95	63.76	70.34	99.07	105.19	111.69	118.59	125.91
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	370.51	409.53	389.62	569.70	587.51	567.48	602.54	639.76	679.29	721.25
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	144.41	167.87	237.39	304.25	257.62	273.02	289.89	307.80	326.81	347
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-114.92	-217.43	-159.24	-262.43	-199.51	-233.32	-247.73	-263.04	-279.29	-296.54
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 26.37
Beta	1.482
Diluted Shares Outstanding	94.14
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	27.83
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.61%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	10.521
Total Debt	1,117.37
Total Equity	2,482.58
Total Capital	3,599.95
Debt Weighting	31.04
Equity Weighting	68.96
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	3,950.62	3,983.79	3,449.75	4,548.76	4,795.24	5,091.48	5,406.01	5,739.98	6,094.57	6,471.07
EBITDA	503.54	351.98	110.69	511.41	323.62	435.64	462.55	491.13	521.47	553.68
EBIT	385.55	239.72	6.92	405.74	221.28	300.51	319.08	338.79	359.72	381.94
Tax Rate	22.71%	29.88%	64.82%	23.23%	27.83%	33.69%	33.69%	33.69%	33.69%	33.69%
EBIAT	298	168.10	2.43	311.46	159.70	199.26	211.57	224.64	238.52	253.25
Depreciation	117.99	112.26	103.77	105.67	102.34	135.12	143.47	152.34	161.75	171.74
Accounts Receivable	-	-7.83	-1.66	26.19	-6.58	-28.73	-6.12	-6.50	-6.90	-7.33
Inventories	-	-39.03	19.92	-180.08	-17.81	20.03	-35.06	-37.22	-39.52	-41.96
Accounts Payable	-	23.46	69.51	66.86	-46.63	15.40	16.87	17.91	19.01	20.19
Capital Expenditure	-114.92	-217.43	-159.24	-262.43	-199.51	-233.32	-247.73	-263.04	-279.29	-296.54
UFCF	301.06	39.52	34.73	67.68	-8.49	107.76	83	88.12	93.57	99.35
WACC
PV UFCF						99.43	70.66	69.22	67.82	66.44
SUM PV UFCF										373.57

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.38
Free cash flow (t + 1)	101.34
Terminal Value	1,588.33
Present Value of Terminal Value	1,062.18

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	1,435.74
Net Debt	1,117.37
Equity Value	318.37
Shares Outstanding	94.14
Equity Value Per Share	3.38