Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Ur-Energy Inc. (URG)
$1.66
+0.08 (+5.06%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 23.50 | 32.26 | 8.32 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 8.51 | -3.82 | -9.06 | -12.02 | -15.52 | -4.20 | -2.96 | -2.09 | -1.47 | -1.04 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 4.91 | -8.24 | -13.32 | -15.85 | -18.54 | -5.27 | -3.72 | -2.62 | -1.85 | -1.30 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 3.60 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 3.83 | 3.02 | 1.07 | 0.75 | 0.53 | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 6.37 | 7.75 | 4.27 | 46.19 | 33 | 12.39 | 8.74 | 6.16 | 4.34 | 3.06 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 1.84 | 7.43 | 7.81 | 7.92 | 9.90 | 2.73 | 1.92 | 1.36 | 0.96 | 0.67 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 0.62 | 0.52 | 0.40 | 0.85 | 0.66 | 0.24 | 0.17 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.09 | -0.28 | -0.04 | -1.19 | -0.71 | -0.30 | -0.21 | -0.15 | -0.10 | -0.07 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 1.66 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.430 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 195.69 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 10.86 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.73% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.345 |
| Total Debt | 11.08 |
| Total Equity | 324.85 |
| Total Capital | 335.92 |
| Debt Weighting | 3.30 |
| Equity Weighting | 96.70 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 23.50 | 32.26 | 8.32 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 8.51 | -3.82 | -9.06 | -12.02 | -15.52 | -4.20 | -2.96 | -2.09 | -1.47 | -1.04 |
| EBIT | 4.91 | -8.24 | -13.32 | -15.85 | -18.54 | -5.27 | -3.72 | -2.62 | -1.85 | -1.30 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | -8.45% | -4.92% | -7.14% | 10.86% | -1.93% | -1.93% | -1.93% | -1.93% | -1.93% |
| EBIAT | 4.91 | -8.93 | -13.98 | -16.98 | -16.53 | -5.37 | -3.79 | -2.67 | -1.88 | -1.33 |
| Depreciation | 3.60 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 3.83 | 3.02 | 1.07 | 0.75 | 0.53 | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | -0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Inventories | - | -5.59 | -0.39 | -0.11 | -1.98 | 7.18 | 0.80 | 0.57 | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.10 | -0.13 | 0.46 | -0.19 | -0.42 | -0.07 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.02 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.09 | -0.28 | -0.04 | -1.19 | -0.71 | -0.30 | -0.21 | -0.15 | -0.10 | -0.07 |
| UFCF | 8.43 | -10.47 | -10.26 | -13.98 | -16.39 | 2.15 | -2.51 | -1.77 | -1.25 | -0.88 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 1.93 | -2.04 | -1.29 | -0.82 | -0.52 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -2.73 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 11.09 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -0.90 |
| Terminal Value | -9.88 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -5.84 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -8.57 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -21.93 |
| Equity Value | 13.36 |
| Shares Outstanding | 195.69 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 0.07 |