Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Ur-Energy Inc. (URG)
$1.05
-0.02 (-1.87%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 23.50 | 32.26 | 8.32 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 9.14 | -3.34 | -9.81 | -18.37 | -15.43 | -5.25 | -3.70 | -2.61 | -1.84 | -1.30 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 5.54 | -7.75 | -14.08 | -22.21 | -16.68 | -6.07 | -4.28 | -3.02 | -2.13 | -1.50 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 3.60 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 3.83 | 1.25 | 0.82 | 0.58 | 0.41 | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 6.37 | 7.75 | 4.27 | 46.19 | 33 | 12.39 | 8.74 | 6.16 | 4.34 | 3.06 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 1.84 | 2.53 | 0.65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 0.62 | 0.52 | 0.40 | 0.85 | 0.25 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.09 | -0.28 | -0.04 | -1.19 | -0.35 | -0.25 | -0.18 | -0.12 | -0.09 | -0.06 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 1.05 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.464 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 195.69 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.00 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.19% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.613 |
| Total Debt | 11.06 |
| Total Equity | 205.48 |
| Total Capital | 216.54 |
| Debt Weighting | 5.11 |
| Equity Weighting | 94.89 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 23.50 | 32.26 | 8.32 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 9.14 | -3.34 | -9.81 | -18.37 | -15.43 | -5.25 | -3.70 | -2.61 | -1.84 | -1.30 |
| EBIT | 5.54 | -7.75 | -14.08 | -22.21 | -16.68 | -6.07 | -4.28 | -3.02 | -2.13 | -1.50 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| EBIAT | 5.54 | -7.75 | -14.08 | -22.21 | -16.68 | -6.07 | -4.28 | -3.02 | -2.13 | -1.50 |
| Depreciation | 3.60 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 3.83 | 1.25 | 0.82 | 0.58 | 0.41 | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | -0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Inventories | - | -0.69 | 1.87 | 0.65 | -0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.10 | -0.13 | 0.46 | -0.60 | -0.07 | -0.05 | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.02 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.09 | -0.28 | -0.04 | -1.19 | -0.35 | -0.25 | -0.18 | -0.12 | -0.09 | -0.06 |
| UFCF | 9.05 | -4.39 | -8.09 | -18.44 | -16.38 | -5.58 | -3.93 | -2.77 | -1.95 | -1.38 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -5.06 | -3.23 | -2.07 | -1.32 | -0.84 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -12.52 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 10.28 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -1.41 |
| Terminal Value | -16.97 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -10.41 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -22.93 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -21.94 |
| Equity Value | -0.99 |
| Shares Outstanding | 195.69 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -0.01 |