Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

USA Compression Partners, LP (USAC)

$20.95

-0.02 (-0.10%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -9.70 | 20.95 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	280.22	584.35	698.37	667.68	632.64	819.91	1,062.61	1,377.14	1,784.78	2,313.09
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	135.71	279.04	399.91	-225.80	379.75	294.60	381.80	494.82	641.29	831.11
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	37.11	65.35	168.46	-464.77	140.98	2.01	2.60	3.37	4.37	5.66
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	98.60	213.69	231.45	238.97	238.77	292.59	379.20	491.45	636.92	825.45
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	0.05	0.10	0.01	0	0.06	0.07	0.09	0.12	0.16	0.20
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	40.56	127.04	136.79	112.48	113.15	148.46	192.41	249.36	323.17	418.83
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	33.44	89.01	91.92	84.63	85.82	109.16	141.47	183.35	237.62	307.96
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	20.02	23.80	21.70	13.53	22.54	32.66	42.32	54.85	71.09	92.13
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-105.89	-266.57	-171.15	-109.07	-45.21	-215.46	-279.24	-361.90	-469.02	-607.85
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 20.95
Beta	1.454
Diluted Shares Outstanding	97.07
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	7.84
After-tax Cost of Debt	6.01%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	10.396
Total Debt	1,991.79
Total Equity	2,033.57
Total Capital	4,025.36
Debt Weighting	49.48
Equity Weighting	50.52
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	280.22	584.35	698.37	667.68	632.64	819.91	1,062.61	1,377.14	1,784.78	2,313.09
EBITDA	135.71	279.04	399.91	-225.80	379.75	294.60	381.80	494.82	641.29	831.11
EBIT	37.11	65.35	168.46	-464.77	140.98	2.01	2.60	3.37	4.37	5.66
Tax Rate	4.49%	18.99%	5.29%	-0.22%	7.84%	7.28%	7.28%	7.28%	7.28%	7.28%
EBIAT	35.44	52.94	159.55	-465.81	129.93	1.86	2.41	3.12	4.05	5.25
Depreciation	98.60	213.69	231.45	238.97	238.77	292.59	379.20	491.45	636.92	825.45
Accounts Receivable	-	-86.48	-9.75	24.32	-0.68	-35.31	-43.95	-56.95	-73.81	-95.66
Inventories	-	-55.56	-2.92	7.29	-1.18	-23.35	-32.31	-41.88	-54.27	-70.34
Accounts Payable	-	3.78	-2.10	-8.17	9.01	10.12	9.67	12.53	16.24	21.04
Capital Expenditure	-105.89	-266.57	-171.15	-109.07	-45.21	-215.46	-279.24	-361.90	-469.02	-607.85
UFCF	28.16	-138.19	205.08	-312.48	330.63	30.46	35.78	46.37	60.10	77.89
WACC
PV UFCF						28.14	30.55	36.58	43.80	52.45
SUM PV UFCF										191.51

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.23
Free cash flow (t + 1)	79.45
Terminal Value	1,275.22
Present Value of Terminal Value	858.71

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	1,050.23
Net Debt	1,991.79
Equity Value	-941.56
Shares Outstanding	97.07
Equity Value Per Share	-9.70