Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

USA Compression Partners, LP (USAC)

$20.95

-0.02 (-0.10%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -9.70 | 20.95 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 280.22584.35698.37667.68632.64819.911,062.611,377.141,784.782,313.09
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 135.71279.04399.91-225.80379.75294.60381.80494.82641.29831.11
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 37.1165.35168.46-464.77140.982.012.603.374.375.66
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 98.60213.69231.45238.97238.77292.59379.20491.45636.92825.45
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 0.050.100.0100.060.070.090.120.160.20
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 40.56127.04136.79112.48113.15148.46192.41249.36323.17418.83
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 33.4489.0191.9284.6385.82109.16141.47183.35237.62307.96
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 20.0223.8021.7013.5322.5432.6642.3254.8571.0992.13
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -105.89-266.57-171.15-109.07-45.21-215.46-279.24-361.90-469.02-607.85
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 20.95
Beta 1.454
Diluted Shares Outstanding 97.07
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 7.84
After-tax Cost of Debt 6.01%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.396
Total Debt 1,991.79
Total Equity 2,033.57
Total Capital 4,025.36
Debt Weighting 49.48
Equity Weighting 50.52
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 280.22584.35698.37667.68632.64819.911,062.611,377.141,784.782,313.09
EBITDA 135.71279.04399.91-225.80379.75294.60381.80494.82641.29831.11
EBIT 37.1165.35168.46-464.77140.982.012.603.374.375.66
Tax Rate 4.49%18.99%5.29%-0.22%7.84%7.28%7.28%7.28%7.28%7.28%
EBIAT 35.4452.94159.55-465.81129.931.862.413.124.055.25
Depreciation 98.60213.69231.45238.97238.77292.59379.20491.45636.92825.45
Accounts Receivable --86.48-9.7524.32-0.68-35.31-43.95-56.95-73.81-95.66
Inventories --55.56-2.927.29-1.18-23.35-32.31-41.88-54.27-70.34
Accounts Payable -3.78-2.10-8.179.0110.129.6712.5316.2421.04
Capital Expenditure -105.89-266.57-171.15-109.07-45.21-215.46-279.24-361.90-469.02-607.85
UFCF 28.16-138.19205.08-312.48330.6330.4635.7846.3760.1077.89
WACC
PV UFCF 28.1430.5536.5843.8052.45
SUM PV UFCF 191.51

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.23
Free cash flow (t + 1) 79.45
Terminal Value 1,275.22
Present Value of Terminal Value 858.71

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,050.23
Net Debt 1,991.79
Equity Value -941.56
Shares Outstanding 97.07
Equity Value Per Share -9.70