Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

USD Partners LP (USDP)

$4.03

-0.12 (-2.89%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 31.37 | 4.03 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 108.81119.23113.66120.04122.10125.83129.68133.65137.74141.95
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 52.2050.9239.859.7449.5943.9145.2546.6448.0749.54
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 30.0629.8219.18-11.7527.5220.7021.3421.9922.6623.36
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 22.1321.1020.6621.5022.0723.2123.9224.6525.4026.18
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 7.876.443.083.043.755.275.435.605.775.95
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 4.585.767.536.518.647.097.307.537.767.99
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----3.033.123.223.313.413.52
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2.673.463.091.872.943.033.123.223.323.42
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -27.58-8.82-8.44-0.48-2.39-10.70-11.03-11.37-11.72-12.07
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 4.03
Beta 1.157
Diluted Shares Outstanding 26.84
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 3.16
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.03%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.285
Total Debt 171.47
Total Equity 108.18
Total Capital 279.65
Debt Weighting 61.32
Equity Weighting 38.68
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 108.81119.23113.66120.04122.10125.83129.68133.65137.74141.95
EBITDA 52.2050.9239.859.7449.5943.9145.2546.6448.0749.54
EBIT 30.0629.8219.18-11.7527.5220.7021.3421.9922.6623.36
Tax Rate -9.94%-14.46%9.22%0.21%3.16%-2.36%-2.36%-2.36%-2.36%-2.36%
EBIAT 33.0534.1317.41-11.7326.6521.1921.8422.5123.2023.91
Depreciation 22.1321.1020.6621.5022.0723.2123.9224.6525.4026.18
Accounts Receivable --1.18-1.771.02-2.131.55-0.22-0.22-0.23-0.24
Inventories ------0.09-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10
Accounts Payable -0.79-0.38-1.221.070.090.090.100.100.10
Capital Expenditure -27.58-8.82-8.44-0.48-2.39-10.70-11.03-11.37-11.72-12.07
UFCF 27.6146.0427.499.0845.2835.2534.5135.5636.6537.77
WACC
PV UFCF 33.4331.0330.3329.6428.97
SUM PV UFCF 153.40

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.45
Free cash flow (t + 1) 38.53
Terminal Value 1,116.77
Present Value of Terminal Value 856.50

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,009.91
Net Debt 167.72
Equity Value 842.18
Shares Outstanding 26.84
Equity Value Per Share 31.37