Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD)
$39.81
+0.16 (+0.40%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 24,175 | 25,939 | 22,885 | 29,487 | 34,057 | 37,451.63 | 41,184.62 | 45,289.69 | 49,803.93 | 54,768.14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 1,012 | 1,057 | 405 | 839 | 1,000 | 1,184.40 | 1,302.45 | 1,432.28 | 1,575.04 | 1,732.03 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 672 | 695 | -17 | 461 | 628 | 658.56 | 724.20 | 796.39 | 875.77 | 963.06 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 340 | 362 | 422 | 378 | 372 | 525.84 | 578.25 | 635.89 | 699.27 | 768.97 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 104 | 90 | 828 | 148 | 211 | 413.22 | 454.41 | 499.70 | 549.51 | 604.28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 1,453 | 1,598 | 1,205 | 1,614 | 1,848 | 2,122.47 | 2,334.03 | 2,566.68 | 2,822.51 | 3,103.84 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 1,279 | 1,432 | 1,273 | 1,686 | 1,616 | 2,010.15 | 2,210.51 | 2,430.84 | 2,673.14 | 2,939.58 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 1,359 | 1,460 | 1,218 | 1,662 | 1,855 | 2,071.49 | 2,277.96 | 2,505.02 | 2,754.70 | 3,029.28 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -235 | -258 | -189 | -274 | -265 | -337.06 | -370.65 | -407.60 | -448.23 | -492.90 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 39.81 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.506 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 226 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 26.59 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.72% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.628 |
| Total Debt | 5,029 |
| Total Equity | 8,997.06 |
| Total Capital | 14,026.06 |
| Debt Weighting | 35.85 |
| Equity Weighting | 64.15 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 24,175 | 25,939 | 22,885 | 29,487 | 34,057 | 37,451.63 | 41,184.62 | 45,289.69 | 49,803.93 | 54,768.14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 1,012 | 1,057 | 405 | 839 | 1,000 | 1,184.40 | 1,302.45 | 1,432.28 | 1,575.04 | 1,732.03 |
| EBIT | 672 | 695 | -17 | 461 | 628 | 658.56 | 724.20 | 796.39 | 875.77 | 963.06 |
| Tax Rate | 17.94% | 24.66% | 23.13% | 23.36% | 26.59% | 23.14% | 23.14% | 23.14% | 23.14% | 23.14% |
| EBIAT | 551.42 | 523.63 | -13.07 | 353.29 | 461 | 506.19 | 556.64 | 612.12 | 673.14 | 740.23 |
| Depreciation | 340 | 362 | 422 | 378 | 372 | 525.84 | 578.25 | 635.89 | 699.27 | 768.97 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -145 | 393 | -409 | -234 | -274.47 | -211.56 | -232.64 | -255.83 | -281.33 |
| Inventories | - | -153 | 159 | -413 | 70 | -394.15 | -200.36 | -220.33 | -242.29 | -266.44 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 101 | -242 | 444 | 193 | 216.49 | 206.48 | 227.06 | 249.69 | 274.57 |
| Capital Expenditure | -235 | -258 | -189 | -274 | -265 | -337.06 | -370.65 | -407.60 | -448.23 | -492.90 |
| UFCF | 656.42 | 430.63 | 529.93 | 79.29 | 597 | 242.83 | 558.79 | 614.49 | 675.74 | 743.09 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 223.21 | 472.14 | 477.25 | 482.42 | 487.64 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 2,142.66 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.79 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 757.96 |
| Terminal Value | 11,162.81 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 7,325.36 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 9,468.02 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 4,818 |
| Equity Value | 4,650.02 |
| Shares Outstanding | 226 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 20.58 |