Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD)

$39.81

+0.16 (+0.40%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 20.58 | 39.81 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 24,17525,93922,88529,48734,05737,451.6341,184.6245,289.6949,803.9354,768.14
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,0121,0574058391,0001,184.401,302.451,432.281,575.041,732.03
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 672695-17461628658.56724.20796.39875.77963.06
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 340362422378372525.84578.25635.89699.27768.97
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 10490828148211413.22454.41499.70549.51604.28
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,4531,5981,2051,6141,8482,122.472,334.032,566.682,822.513,103.84
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,2791,4321,2731,6861,6162,010.152,210.512,430.842,673.142,939.58
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,3591,4601,2181,6621,8552,071.492,277.962,505.022,754.703,029.28
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -235-258-189-274-265-337.06-370.65-407.60-448.23-492.90
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 39.81
Beta 1.506
Diluted Shares Outstanding 226
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.59
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.72%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.628
Total Debt 5,029
Total Equity 8,997.06
Total Capital 14,026.06
Debt Weighting 35.85
Equity Weighting 64.15
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 24,17525,93922,88529,48734,05737,451.6341,184.6245,289.6949,803.9354,768.14
EBITDA 1,0121,0574058391,0001,184.401,302.451,432.281,575.041,732.03
EBIT 672695-17461628658.56724.20796.39875.77963.06
Tax Rate 17.94%24.66%23.13%23.36%26.59%23.14%23.14%23.14%23.14%23.14%
EBIAT 551.42523.63-13.07353.29461506.19556.64612.12673.14740.23
Depreciation 340362422378372525.84578.25635.89699.27768.97
Accounts Receivable --145393-409-234-274.47-211.56-232.64-255.83-281.33
Inventories --153159-41370-394.15-200.36-220.33-242.29-266.44
Accounts Payable -101-242444193216.49206.48227.06249.69274.57
Capital Expenditure -235-258-189-274-265-337.06-370.65-407.60-448.23-492.90
UFCF 656.42430.63529.9379.29597242.83558.79614.49675.74743.09
WACC
PV UFCF 223.21472.14477.25482.42487.64
SUM PV UFCF 2,142.66

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.79
Free cash flow (t + 1) 757.96
Terminal Value 11,162.81
Present Value of Terminal Value 7,325.36

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 9,468.02
Net Debt 4,818
Equity Value 4,650.02
Shares Outstanding 226
Equity Value Per Share 20.58