Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
United States 3x Short Oil Fund (USOD)
$6.15
-0.04 (-0.57%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,088.13 | 1,017.35 | 638.07 | 573.16 | 737.71 | 691.14 | 647.51 | 606.63 | 568.34 | 532.46 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 113.85 | 93.84 | 13.91 | 27.42 | 64.34 | 48.89 | 45.81 | 42.91 | 40.21 | 37.67 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -9.68 | -29.48 | -84.64 | -53.33 | -2.99 | -36.99 | -34.66 | -32.47 | -30.42 | -28.50 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 123.53 | 123.32 | 98.54 | 80.74 | 67.33 | 85.88 | 80.46 | 75.38 | 70.62 | 66.17 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 19.32 | 8.49 | 72.01 | 52.85 | 42.02 | 39.83 | 37.31 | 34.96 | 32.75 | 30.68 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 277.23 | 224.44 | 160.03 | 176.11 | 212.59 | 182.69 | 171.15 | 160.35 | 150.23 | 140.74 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 209.39 | 221.34 | 170.38 | 168.57 | 182.66 | 168.46 | 157.83 | 147.86 | 138.53 | 129.79 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 77.51 | 78.37 | 46.43 | 63.34 | 73.25 | 59.55 | 55.80 | 52.27 | 48.97 | 45.88 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -88.02 | -56.12 | -12.75 | -17.52 | -20.27 | -29.59 | -27.72 | -25.97 | -24.33 | -22.80 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 6.15 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.000 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 61.64 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -134.98 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 4.218 |
| Total Debt | - |
| Total Equity | 379.07 |
| Total Capital | - |
| Debt Weighting | - |
| Equity Weighting | - |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,088.13 | 1,017.35 | 638.07 | 573.16 | 737.71 | 691.14 | 647.51 | 606.63 | 568.34 | 532.46 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 113.85 | 93.84 | 13.91 | 27.42 | 64.34 | 48.89 | 45.81 | 42.91 | 40.21 | 37.67 |
| EBIT | -9.68 | -29.48 | -84.64 | -53.33 | -2.99 | -36.99 | -34.66 | -32.47 | -30.42 | -28.50 |
| Tax Rate | 12.09% | 3.71% | 12.34% | 12.74% | -134.98% | -18.82% | -18.82% | -18.82% | -18.82% | -18.82% |
| EBIAT | -8.51 | -28.39 | -74.19 | -46.53 | -7.04 | -43.95 | -41.18 | -38.58 | -36.14 | -33.86 |
| Depreciation | 123.53 | 123.32 | 98.54 | 80.74 | 67.33 | 85.88 | 80.46 | 75.38 | 70.62 | 66.17 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 52.78 | 64.41 | -16.07 | -36.49 | 29.91 | 11.53 | 10.80 | 10.12 | 9.48 |
| Inventories | - | -11.95 | 50.97 | 1.80 | -14.09 | 14.20 | 10.63 | 9.96 | 9.33 | 8.74 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.86 | -31.94 | 16.91 | 9.91 | -13.70 | -3.76 | -3.52 | -3.30 | -3.09 |
| Capital Expenditure | -88.02 | -56.12 | -12.75 | -17.52 | -20.27 | -29.59 | -27.72 | -25.97 | -24.33 | -22.80 |
| UFCF | 27 | 80.50 | 95.04 | 19.33 | -0.63 | 42.75 | 29.97 | 28.08 | 26.30 | 24.64 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | - |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | - |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 25.14 |
| Terminal Value | - |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | - |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | - |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -42.02 |
| Equity Value | - |
| Shares Outstanding | 61.64 |
| Equity Value Per Share | - |